I agree and I really don't understand how mature researchers can engage in this type of guesswork. If we are in a simulation, our observed universe is also a simulation. Even if the real world revealed itself to us Matrix style, this "revelation" could also be a simulation. There is no way to tell. We can not falsify either of the contradicting statements "we live in a simulation" / "we do not live in a simulation".

(Edit: Technically, I don't agree with your "application of probabilities to non-discrete systems" statement, but I think we get the intended meaning here.)