For example, google "FLUVIRIN fda package insert",and the one for the 2017/2018 flu season on page 8 you'll find "A/Singapore/GP1908/2015,IVR-180 (an A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09- like virus; A/Hong Kong/4801/2014, NYMC X-263B (H3N2) (an A/Hong Kong/4801/2014- like virus); and B/Brisbane/60/2008, wild type (a B/Brisbane/60/2008-like virus)".
Google the same document for Fluzone quadrivalent, and you should find, for the 2020/2021 flu season, the strains "A/Guangdong-Maonan/SWL1536/2019 CNIC-1909 (H1N1), A/Hong Kong/2671/2019 IVR-208 (H3N2), B/Phuket/3073/2013 (B Yamagata lineage), and B/Washington/02/2019 (B Victoria lineage)" on pg 21.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_annual_reformulatio...
although it's presumably taken from the same sources you suggest.
The deaths in the U.S. in 2017 were about 61,000, compared to the normal 40,000 or so.
Long story short: you don't know, but it's the best guess of those in charge of making that call.