Whichever company is the first to make a family EV with a +500km range for less than $20k will sell tens of millions of cars.
In my estimation, they'd need to reduce the battery cost down by around 2/3 to reach the vehicle you mention. At current rates of battery cost declines, where battery costs are halving every 4-6 years, we're looking at 2030 or later for a "tens of millions of cars $20k +500km range" vehicle.
That's a long wait, but you don't need 500km range anyway, you can use superchargers to allow a 300km range to do any trip you're interested in.
Range anxiety is not high on the list for Tesla owners, it's mostly about serviceability, overall price, luxury status, and the fact that Tesla is the premium EV by a long shot: no others are close in efficiency and performance in the premium segment.
If the car is smaller that number also goes down.
An eletric car in it's essence is a quite simple system (especially compared to a gasoline car).
Personally, i think having a minimal car with the bare basics that is electric for a very good price would sell really well in Europe, especially considering that gas prices are high (so people will save money in the lifetime of the vehicle compared to gas) and most people don't see a car as a status symbol. Creating a cheap, easy to use and maintain electric car for cheap with cheap and easy to manufacter parts would be amazing. It could decimate the "tiny car" (aygo, clio etc) market.
I'm generalizing of course, but it's a significant difference. Most folks I know would have to run a cable across the sidewalk. Electric is only going to work if all the supermarkets and pubs etc etc have fast chargers. Or maybe they put them into lamp posts.
Bigger restriction on that is how many people don't live in homes where they can just install a charger, but rather in apartments with either no charging or no dedicated parking at all.
I think the biggest reason for relatively slow adoption of electric cars in Europe is simply that most European are significantly poorer than most Americans, while also having to pay high taxes and fees. Median household income in Mississippi is almost 50% higher than median household income in France, for example, and this is compounded by higher taxes in France.
In effect the tax credit seems like a subsidy for detached single family homes, since I really don't see how you can swing it any other way.
Pretty much all new buildings will require the infrastructure for charging at every parking spot, if you have parking inside the building. Buildings that undergo major renovations will also have this requirement. But actually charging points / boxes you have to install is a bit lower if I remember, only 1 per parking lot or something.
Thankfully these laws will also be applied retroactively from 2025, so all old buildings have to get their act together by then. These laws do not apply to singe family homes.