The Electric Car Atop Europe’s Sales Charts Isn’t a Tesla or VW
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
I am driving a Zoe multiple times a week and thoroughly enjoy it.
Is it premium class car and will take me 600km? No, but that's not why I am driving Zoes. I drive them because it's short city commutes 99% of the time. Rarely more than 10-15km, usually transporting something or bypassing public transport in busy times/Corona/if car is just quicker.
I use them via Sixt Share, a car-sharing service. Always find parking within a few minutes with the privilege of getting the e-parking spots and the small size.
Zoe is perfect for European city dwelling and short commutes. Not as expensive as BMW i3 or VW e-Golf. Same type of car as the e-Up! which I haven't tried yet.
The Honda e at least has the excuse that the US has been the slowest to allow sideview cameras in its safety regulations, though Honda America similarly is short-sightedly focused almost solely on trucks in the US.
I'm living in the Prague without car, only missing car when doing the grocery, but there is no point to buy car just to do big grocery once a week, might as well rent a car or take taxi or order grocery online, if I would be that lazy.
Stealing an auto is a felony while a bike theft doesn’t even get marginal attention form law enforcement.
Sorry to say but we’ll need some large policy shifts to support ebikes despite how perfect they’d be.
I don't think they would really treat cars differently, if they are in same value as some bike worth 10000 EUR, the thing is car is much bigger so it's more difficult to hide it and easier to notice/discover than bike and statistically most of the used bikes are worth few euros, so it would be really waste of resources, of course it's different now with ebikes, but it is same as motorbikes, much easier to hide and difficult to discover
Car gets stolen: often the case is solved, license plates help, etc.pp
Bike gets stolen: Police take the report, often blame you it's your own fault that you didn't properly lock it (happened to me twice), usually doesn't get solved even if you have the number. It's worth the hassle to report it but the chnace of getting it back are close to zero.
Are you sure stolen car is "often" found? Here in Czechia they find like 20% stolen cars, bikes will be worse but not that much worse since 20 is already quite close to 0 anyway.
I still see some Tesla, but usually it is a status symbol, people who just want an electric car usually go for the Nissan Leaf or the Renault Zoe.
But also, the Zoe is is in the affordable range for people looking for an electric car in non-massively-subsidized markets (Norway, Denmark), while VWs and Teslas are rather in the luxury range.
The amount of car (utility & status & luxury) I get for Tesla or VW money in e.g. Germany, makes most prospective customers buy either an ICE (looking for a family car), or BMW or Audi SUVs (looking for luxury & status) - unless they are idealists or in search of image polish (business cars bring larger tax benefits for electric cars).
Then there are simply not much electric cars on the market that aren't in the Zoe-class in the first place (although several alternatives are bound to hit the market soon), besides very expensive SUVs and Teslas. And the regular e-Golf pricing is simply not competitive, for what you get.
So most people buying a Zoe is put very simply a "cheapest price will attract the masses"-phenomenon - given what people are looking for (an electric car, maybe as replacement for the smaller second commuter car).
Tesla are doubly expensive also because they usually fall into the sports cars category and insurance will make you pay way more.
Also, you probably need a safe place to park it. It is not true everywhere but I know that where I live, there is places where it would get vandalized pretty quickly.
Here is NL.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/01/08/tesla-model-3-shatters-...
1 Tesla Model 3 29,922
2 VW Polo 12,920
3 Ford Focus 10,478
4 VW Golf 9,263
Number 2 to 4 are small cars.
But Tesla sale number per country just mean Tesla decided to allocate more cars to a specific country, as long as it is production constrained not much information about customer preferences from sales numbers.
To give a very simplified but realistic stereotype: An upper-middle class family od two software engineers + 2 children will probably have one "premium" family car for sir (e.g. VW Golf or 3008) and one city car for madam (e.g. Aygo or Twingo)
It's also just that middle-class and higher incomes are much lower here than in the US + property is on average much more expensive. so people don't have as much disposable income to burn on cars
On the other hand, 20% VAT is painful and unheard of in the US afaik (<7% I believe).
France: https://immatriculation.ants.gouv.fr/Vos-demarches/Cout-et-t...
UK: https://www.gov.uk/vehicle-registration/new-registrations-fe...
As Frenchman in the UK I like to take the piss out of my 'compatriotes'. ;)
Most European drivers would be thrilled with California gas prices: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/gas-prices/
American gas prices and vehicle fees are scandalously low, too low to pay for upkeep of car infrastructure, let alone to pay for the externalities of driving and of burning fossil fuels.
There are other side effects: better public transport (though there is great variation and some of the old advantages are being rolled back), better bike infrastructure (again, not everywhere) and more local shopping rather than just malls.
Our vaunted public services don't come cheap.
So because of the COVID shutdown, that means that the only month that Tesla made cars for Europe this year was January. (And July, but those cars haven't been counted yet).
And, as mentioned the widely anticipated ID3 from VW isn't being delivered until September.
So Europeans chose to buy a Zoe now rather than wait for a Tesla or an ID3. And the Zoe is a nice car, so why wait?
I doubt there is much overlap with the ID3 too. The cheapest model will cost you two Zoes.
Instead, it's bought by already-affluent upper middle-class, who then get to feel better about their carbon footprint, while also saving on gas ! (Which, don't get me wrong, is great !)
As the saying goes, "it takes a lot of money to be poor."
The situation will, hopefully, get better, when there is a second-hand market for EV, or much cheaper vehicles...
The problem is kind of interesting - a smaller battery in and of itself is painful but there's a deeper problem. YOu have to spread the charge cycle over the whole battery and you have to do more charge cycles. So a Tesla can discharge different cells each day, and any individual cell gets used less frequently. With the leaf, you're using every cell, every day. So it's compounding and much worse than people realize, forgetting all the other problems like no thermal control on the pack.
I actually loved my leafs (leaves?) but they couldn't even get to the city and back very quickly (I mean after 6 months the battery loses a bar). The newer ones are betterish.
https://www.truedelta.com/Tesla-Model-3-vs-Toyota-Prius-Prim...
I have a car which I seldom use because I am located in a city and only use it to visit family or some groceries. Did cost 2000€ and has a life expectancy of around 5-8 years. It can go from A to B. I have no parking spot so I would never buy a new car. Wouldn't take a month to get bumps in it.
EVs need to do good on used car markets, otherwise they will remain a curiosity for the nearer future. But of course the cost for the battery life cycle could pose a significant problem. Renault offers battery leasing, which means people don't need to be afraid of it failing after a few years or very cold weather.
For a Zoe, I would still have to pay 30,000€. Convince me to spend 28,000€ more on a car. It isn't a status symbol for me, times have changed, I need to go from A to B.
I'm generalizing of course, but it's a significant difference. Most folks I know would have to run a cable across the sidewalk. Electric is only going to work if all the supermarkets and pubs etc etc have fast chargers. Or maybe they put them into lamp posts.
Bigger restriction on that is how many people don't live in homes where they can just install a charger, but rather in apartments with either no charging or no dedicated parking at all.
I think the biggest reason for relatively slow adoption of electric cars in Europe is simply that most European are significantly poorer than most Americans, while also having to pay high taxes and fees. Median household income in Mississippi is almost 50% higher than median household income in France, for example, and this is compounded by higher taxes in France.
In effect the tax credit seems like a subsidy for detached single family homes, since I really don't see how you can swing it any other way.
Pretty much all new buildings will require the infrastructure for charging at every parking spot, if you have parking inside the building. Buildings that undergo major renovations will also have this requirement. But actually charging points / boxes you have to install is a bit lower if I remember, only 1 per parking lot or something.
Thankfully these laws will also be applied retroactively from 2025, so all old buildings have to get their act together by then. These laws do not apply to singe family homes.
In my estimation, they'd need to reduce the battery cost down by around 2/3 to reach the vehicle you mention. At current rates of battery cost declines, where battery costs are halving every 4-6 years, we're looking at 2030 or later for a "tens of millions of cars $20k +500km range" vehicle.
That's a long wait, but you don't need 500km range anyway, you can use superchargers to allow a 300km range to do any trip you're interested in.
Range anxiety is not high on the list for Tesla owners, it's mostly about serviceability, overall price, luxury status, and the fact that Tesla is the premium EV by a long shot: no others are close in efficiency and performance in the premium segment.
If the car is smaller that number also goes down.
An eletric car in it's essence is a quite simple system (especially compared to a gasoline car).
Personally, i think having a minimal car with the bare basics that is electric for a very good price would sell really well in Europe, especially considering that gas prices are high (so people will save money in the lifetime of the vehicle compared to gas) and most people don't see a car as a status symbol. Creating a cheap, easy to use and maintain electric car for cheap with cheap and easy to manufacter parts would be amazing. It could decimate the "tiny car" (aygo, clio etc) market.
Current Tesla battery cost 75 kwh * 130 $/kwh = $9,750 to Tesla or $16k for end user. It's likely to reach $5k eventually. Wrecked ones cost close to that.
Used 12 year old car cost like 5k for budget, 10k for SUV? What's a thing that I'd bother to replacing on my 10 year old car that cost half the car? IDK probably gearbox or whole engine would cost that. I'd probably go for it if I knew it would last another 10 years.
Probably the cheapest 200+ mile EV in Europe right now.
The Tesla Model 3 is comparatively expensive due to importing. Cheapest Model 3 on the website is £40k. We're not even getting the Model Y until they build the german factory.
The base Zoe, with the 52kWh battery, is £30k/€33/$39k.
I recently bought my first car and would've loved to go electric, but nothing with decent battery size and boot size in my budget yet. I got a Passat GTE Sportswagon for now. All trips inside Stockholm I can drive on pure electric so I'm still quite happy.
Of all time: Leaf, Golf, i3, model S, Soul, Model 3, Zoe..
In 2020: E-tron, Golf, Leaf, Kona, Model 3, Soul, Zoe.
Could be because Zoe is a picky charger. It's made to AC charge on TN power nets, and Norway has quite a bit of IT power nets, some places you'll need a heavy transformer (size of a bucket) to charge it.
Edit: I replied too fast. I looked it up on Wikipedia and the "purchasing power parity" isn't all that different between, say, Netherlands and Norway. So I can't really explain it.
The same applies to Denmark and Netherlands to some degree, btw. They just have other subsidizing programs.
E.g. VWs built in Germany are cheaper to import back from Netherlands to Germany, because Netherlands adds more tax to cars in general, VW thus reduces the price for this market, and you I individually don't pay the tax if you export.
Not only that but between the EV incentives and ICE disincentives, a Tesla won't be just affordable, it might end up costing just as much as a lower-end ICE car. The value proposition of the 2 options is reversed so one extracts more value by going the EV route. This has historically been called as "tax benefits for the rich" presumably because most EVs were still out of reach for much of the population. This should equalize now as more cars like Zoe come onto the market, assuming the incentives are there to stay.
source: made vacation in norway and stuff was generally priced around double of what it costs in germany.
seems norwegians are richer.
Or possibly available credit and willing to use said credit. The UK is a bit of an outlier in terms of car spending when you look at its average wages, but the massive popularity of PCP loans probably explains that.
Norwegians are also higher income than the average European, of course, but that probably doesn't explain all of it.
In most of Europe, I think it's viewed as the only Electric car that's competitive on price against Internal Combusion cars. For a bit more, an eco conscious person can get city car with good range.
In Norway, where as I understand all IC cars now are luxury cars due the taxation, the Zoe is just one of many EVs to choose from. If it was me, I'd choose a Kona or a e-Niro over a Zoe, but I cant afford them (If they were even ever in stock). At Kona e-Niro prices... in my country... I'd choose a sporty semi-luxury car... Maybe Zoe is just in that Niche in countries that aren't (yet) heavily taxing IC cars.
But it's probably about the cold weather performance. Other cars charge faster, and that's important (even psychologically) in Winter. Other cars are also more efficient per km, so you're getting hammered by both in Winter - A car that uses a lot of kw/h per km in good weather does even worse in snow/slush and wind, and then leave you at the charger for longer!
The orignally Zoe and ZE40 models weren't great either, I think they lacked heat pumps too (even worse cold weather performance!), but while I'm only seeing Renault heavily push the Zoe to regular folks now, maybe the Zoe brand name has already been tarnished in Norway?
I’ve the Kona EV myself actually, great car. And to illustrate the ICE/EV price difference here, top specced it was slightly cheaper than a base model ICE Golf.
Wow to me this is bigger news, Tesla is #5 on the list.
Tesla M3 (LR) was the most sold car of any type (ICE and EV) in Norway last year.
I'm in the market for an EV next year and, if the competitors haven't stepped up their game, I'll get one.
No way will I buy a Tesla. Extremely bored of their brand and their online cult - very excited for alternatives. You can take your 0-60 and ... :)
An example, "normal" cross-country trip for me to, say, Bristol, is just over a 100 miles. Well within the Zoe's range.
Anything crazy-further as a very one-off, and maybe I'd rent an ICE for the weekend. (edit: although someone just mentioned the 10%-80% charge time being just an hour ... fine by me!).
As said, the Zoe would be on my radar if the competitors don't step up. But I've heard about quite a few alternative EV released in 2021.
The Polestar 2 looks great. id.3 is fine. Hopefully Kia impress ... will be on the look out for others.
Now, for business trips in rush hours it would probably be another story.
Or go for something super efficient, like the Kias (Kona/Ioniq). Kona does 560 km on a single charge (64 kWh) in real life tests here in Norway.
I've also driven it from The Netherlands to France, 1000 km (621 mi). Then you get into a problem that the charging time from 10-80% takes a full hour, and it's necessary about 5 times for that distance. I personally still thought it was a fun trip.
Good to hear.
You can get much faster there if you charge more often and stop around 60-70%. On long trips, I take a lot of margin, which isn't necessary if you drive to somewhere you know really well (say, a second home) and which has plenty of chargers.
I have to admit, I'm a bit in love with this car. So I'm perhaps overly positive.
It is also possible to lease the battery instead of buying it along with the car, which seems to be a popular option (although it seems they've removed the option, apparently).
Good move. Who needs the complication of a battery lease
Who needs the complication of owning a big battery?
And I can understand someone buying a car outright.
What I can't understand is why someone would want to buy a car outright, but still end up paying a lease on the battery. To me, that doesn't have the benefits of either option.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/renault-ends-bat...
In any case, for many years you’ve always had the option to buy a non-lease (“i”) Zoe for a somewhat higher price.
They just don't share the same market. EV compete with ICEs alternative more than they compete with each others.
But there are just no EV to rent anywhere in France. The ones you you find on Getaround, Ouicar or other peer to peer renting sites cannot actually be rented (owners always reject the inquiry upon request -- probably a trick by the website operator to get people to at least request some cars and get an ICE anyway).
Note that I only checked for big renting companies (Sixt, Enterprise, ...). I was very surprised!
But even as a second car, the segment Zoe caters for is exactly the best one for EV in Europe, IMHO.
It seems to me that at the moment Teslas are for wealthy people who want to display "Tesla cool" more than a practical choice.
There are simply no affordable electric family cars in most European markets. By affordable I mean in the range of regular income families - most families don't have the money to spend twice the price just to have an electric car. Of course this is not true for heavily subsidized markets.
What percentage of people actually do that at all regularly? I would have thought a lot of people would fly or take the train for that.
Usually these are big wagon cars, though because they need to fit the family and luggage in there. So I think that people will stick to ICE until there are family-sized EV with the range and the price range. Teslas are not really an option at the moment, IMO.
So, yeah, the Zoe wouldn't be suitable for those people, but it might be suitable for people who buy small cars anyway (which is most of the market, AFAIK).
Don't underestimate the amount of people who borrow some relative's car to make this trip. Especially younger people (early 20's to mid 30's).
Same argument I heard back in the day on why so many buy estates instead of hatchbacks “in case I move a cupboard”. Like how often does that happen in life?
There is still range anxiety so anyone with an EV and living in London's suburbs will still want an ICE car for when they visit the relatives in the shires or go to their weekend retreat. The Zoe lacks in that area due to range. Meanwhile the Tesla offerings also fall short due to their size which is not what you want on country lanes or in city centres.
Parking at home and on-street charging is a problem so having an ICE and an EV is not practical in the way that it might be in a typical US city. There simply isn't enough space on the street.
Then there is public transport. This is good in London and out to the suburbs, you would want to get the train/Tube to get into London if you had an ounce of common sense, taking a car in is just silly.
The UK is not just London but then it is. There isn't a lot of money to go around in most regions. Plus commutes can be long, too long for range anxiety. Then the people with the money - the boomers - are sceptical about EVs. The UK is therefore going to be stuck with lousy ICE cars for a long time to come.
> you wonder why more people in the suburbs are not buying EVs.
> Money is not the problem given how many expensive German cars are on the streets.
Since the congestion charge is only for central London, this assumes people are driving into the very centre of London every day, which I don't think many people do. Certainly not most people who live in London suburbs.
Zoe is also a nice proof of battery price drop, Renault kept the price constant but battery capacity went from 22 kWh to 52 kWh
https://www.electrive.com/2019/07/01/new-battery-old-price-u...
As fore Renault, are we sure these numbers are not driven be some big purchases of some (French) car rental companies for their fleets? It would make perfect sense especially in France.
I'd really like to see which countries contributed to this success of Renault and in what countries it holds the top place.
EDIT: at least in Germany it's tight victory for electric Golf over Zoe - 7320 vs 7066 cars sold in first half 2020, third place far behind Tesla Model 3 with 4367 cars, in UK is winning Tesla, in France Zoe https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/latest-germany-bes...
The Berlin factory will help with all of these problems.
Always a new discovery of different places thanks to the need to charge. Runs about 150 KM on a single charge on eco mode so when we go on a longer trip we find a nice and interesting place to have a break and explore while it charges.
Battery density and prices are going to continue to improve, and so we can expect the Zoe will be upgraded in the future. And the battery progress means that larger and longer-range cars will become affordable to a broader public in Europe and elsewhere.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/28/21157346/citroen-ami-elec...
It will probebly be 2 more years before they have a 'small' car for Europe and China in production. Only then they will really compete with the shorter range city cars.
The Zoe drivetrain was codesigned by Renault and Continental and Continental makes it.
There's a great teardown video of a Zoe's power electronics on YouTube.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographical_distribution_of_G...