If the outcome is there needs to be six-foot distancing aboard planes, that's not going to mean a 150-seat plane takes 100 passengers, it's going to mean a 150 seat plane takes 20 passengers. That would mean everyone paying first-class fares.
And if some countries have different infection rates, different rates of testing and tracing, and some less trustworthy reporting of those numbers? If every international flight is subject to a mandatory 2 week quarantine in a hotel, say goodbye to 98% of international business travel and vacations.
On the other hand, if there's 'herd immunity' or a vaccine, things could be largely back to normal. I certainly know a lot of people who've been saving up money and vacation days during the lockdown.
And very soon after that, everybody was flying again (although, after that, they got groped by security, and had to buy expensive airport drinks)
But the mandatory 'bottle steriliziation fee', will be 5eur more.
Our primary use case is moving kids and groceries, all of which is less than 30 miles round trip. On the highway it still gets ~10mpg better than the gas version.
I would buy a PHEV just so that it wouldn't switch from regenerative to engine braking mode so soon.
Otherwise, you’re taking a road trip sized vehicle to work every day, or a commute sized vehicle on a road trip.
That said, I don't expect there will be a vaccine by then and of course there's no guarantee how effective a vaccine will be. Not all vaccines are especially effective.
I'll be flying as soon as work allows it. Once the consultants start flying you'll see big upticks in flights as workers demonstrate it can be done safely. I'm not saying instantly back to 100% but I expect decent recovery later in the summer.
In the winter my opinion is air travel will drop as flu season complicates things and covid19 surges again. Then, once again, when flu season subsides, it will pick up again and that's when I believe we'll see a much larger air travel recovery.
You’ll just have to prove somehow that you’re not infected, by a certificate of vaccination, or a 15-minute fully automatic PCR test, or at worst case by staying days to weeks in quarantine, but there’s no problem in the mode of transportation itself.
I suspect most airlines are going to go through bankruptcy, but those which emerge may get back to flying normally next summer, it depends how the disease progresses this year and what treatments are devised.