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Comment by keiferski | Hacker News Reader

No matter what the topic, there seems to be no market for writing articles about minor changes or slight adjustments. The world is always ending, there is always an impossible deadline, and the worst possible projection is absolutely the most likely one. This state of affairs is a consequence of the usual culprit: advertising. Society/the media needs to develop a new business model, and fast.

In reality, airlines will probably have a tough year or two, airports will adopt some new health measures, and things will mostly continue as they were before.

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I think this is overly optimistic. I used to fly regularly and I have no intention of getting on a plane anytime in the next couple years. Maybe we will take a road trip in a year or two, but the idea of getting in a plane is completely out of the question for the foreseeable future.

What if a vaccine is developed, wouldn't that make flying more palatable again?

the timeline for a vaccine lines up with his time estimation, "next couple of years"

I don't know about you, but while flying may start to be come more palatable over time once a vaccine is developed, my priorities have changed a lot over this situation that I'd put casual, international travel somewhere below my list.

If I were confident that I wouldn't catch it, and wouldn't pass it on to others, I'd have no trouble flying just now.

I suspect most airlines are going to go through bankruptcy, but those which emerge may get back to flying normally next summer, it depends how the disease progresses this year and what treatments are devised.

This is what a bunch of people said on 9/11.

And very soon after that, everybody was flying again (although, after that, they got groped by security, and had to buy expensive airport drinks)

Great point. I hope the drinks don't get even more expensive!

Nah... the 0.5l bottle of water will still be 3EUR.

But the mandatory 'bottle steriliziation fee', will be 5eur more.

Lol this might just happen

IIRC, in the US many airlines have eliminated the in-flight beverage service. Maybe in the future there will be no alternative to the overpriced drinks if you want to drink anything during the hours you're in transit.

but terrorist attacks on flights seems more controllable than a virus and also more rare. Granted that it's true that there is a lot of sensationalism there are also events that will disrupt an industry for a while

We are in the same boat. Had a _lot_ of plane travel plans that are basically all on indefinite hold now. We are likely going to accelerate plans to purchase a more road-trip worthy vehicle (minivan, either with tow package or hybrid, can’t have both).

Btw, as an owner of a PHEV - benefits of a hybrid rapidly approach zero on very long journeys, potentially dipping into a negative past a certain point. If you're looking for a vehicle to take on road trips then skip the hybrid. It's absolutely fabulous if you're driving around 30-60 miles between charging though.

What if you want a vehicle for daily commuting, plus occasional road trips?

Then yeah, I guess it works fine - I mean that's exactly what I'm going to do with mine, I drive on pure electricity for my commute, but I'm planning a 2000 mile round trip once the entire lockdown ends. I'm just saying that I'm well aware that on that longer trip the hybrid system will do exactly nothing to improve my fuel economy, or in fact make it worse because I'll be carrying around a quarter tonne battery pack that sits there and does nothing.

I drive a regular hybrid and it's great on hilly terrain with many ups and downs.

I would buy a PHEV just so that it wouldn't switch from regenerative to engine braking mode so soon.

You don’t have to buy one vehicle to do everything, and that’s difficult if your tasks are so different. Buy a commuter, and rent a van for road trips.

Otherwise, you’re taking a road trip sized vehicle to work every day, or a commute sized vehicle on a road trip.

The specific vehicle we'd be getting is a PHEV Pacifica. The pricing can actually come in lower than the equivalent non-hyrbid version depending on the exact incentives in play.

Our primary use case is moving kids and groceries, all of which is less than 30 miles round trip. On the highway it still gets ~10mpg better than the gas version.

I think this is overly pessimistic. I used to fly regularly and I have every intention of getting on a plane soon. I’m booking extra trips so make up for the travel I’ve not been able to do for the last few months and to make up for missing things in the past.

Me too! Good to see some people voicing both sides

This is completely dependent on how the public health situation develops over the coming months and years.

If the outcome is there needs to be six-foot distancing aboard planes, that's not going to mean a 150-seat plane takes 100 passengers, it's going to mean a 150 seat plane takes 20 passengers. That would mean everyone paying first-class fares.

And if some countries have different infection rates, different rates of testing and tracing, and some less trustworthy reporting of those numbers? If every international flight is subject to a mandatory 2 week quarantine in a hotel, say goodbye to 98% of international business travel and vacations.

On the other hand, if there's 'herd immunity' or a vaccine, things could be largely back to normal. I certainly know a lot of people who've been saving up money and vacation days during the lockdown.

Yeah and I was living in Manhattan on 9/11 and everyone said they were leaving. People tend to have pretty short term mentalities for how they will react to news events.

My best guess is that it will end up somewhere between the extremes. I don't expect to get on a plane this year if only because I don't expect any business events I'd normally be traveling to will be on. I certainly hope they're back next year and, if so, I'll be traveling.

That said, I don't expect there will be a vaccine by then and of course there's no guarantee how effective a vaccine will be. Not all vaccines are especially effective.

Bit dramatic.

"Bit dramatic" encapsulates 80% of the reaction, analysis, and projections of this whole pandemic.

I'll be flying as soon as work allows it. Once the consultants start flying you'll see big upticks in flights as workers demonstrate it can be done safely. I'm not saying instantly back to 100% but I expect decent recovery later in the summer.

In the winter my opinion is air travel will drop as flu season complicates things and covid19 surges again. Then, once again, when flu season subsides, it will pick up again and that's when I believe we'll see a much larger air travel recovery.

What’s the problem flying has to do with the virus? It’s a single strain of virus across this planet.

You’ll just have to prove somehow that you’re not infected, by a certificate of vaccination, or a 15-minute fully automatic PCR test, or at worst case by staying days to weeks in quarantine, but there’s no problem in the mode of transportation itself.

You don’t think “days to weeks in quarantine” will put people off?

In reality, airlines will probably have a tough year or two, airports will adopt some new health measures, and things will mostly continue as they were before.

Wearing my most cynical hat, I think the UK is only a few months away from the government attempting to mandate that enabling the official government contact-tracing app on your phone, and keeping it active for the duration of your trip, will be a requirement to leave the UK through an airport. I also think they'll fail in court, but they're going to try.

"This state of affairs is a consequence of the usual culprit: advertising. Society/the media needs to develop a new business model, and fast."

Isn't this also the "business model" of Google, Facebook and hundreds of thousands of other "tech companies" and websites that aspire to generate revenue by catering to advertisers.

The low cost airlines, maybe this is more of a Europe thing, can’t afford to block off some seats. This will affect American companies, Delta owns half of Virgin which complicates Virgins access to UK government money.

In general, I would agree but in this case the twin threats of virus and climate change make me skeptical over the future of air travel

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