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Comment by treyfitty | Hacker News Reader

To be clear, the governor unequivocally said this is not a shelter in place. It is merely language telling employers that they are to not have workers physically present.

The governor also said there will not be any civil penalties for individuals that do not stay at home.

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I think this will open the door for NYC to fully "shelter in place" lockdown, however.

Yeah, they're boiling the frog. Each incremental step is normalized over a few days, and then there's a new, stricter mandate.

Or like Contagion "Nobody can know until everyone knows" -- especially with quarantines because if people think they have early info they will try to leave before it's established exacerbating the exact measures the quarantine is intended to invoke.

Ultimately, even if 60% of people are massively harmed or inconvenienced by the restrictions it is a life-and-death matter for healthcare workers. Viral load is a problem, and keeping down the infections will reduce patient interactions without adequate PPE and mistakes. It is indicative of a collective societal favor that we're asking nurses, PAs, and doctors to risk there lives for a preventable situation. The risk of a systemic failure to the healthcare system would be a catastrophe.

> Each incremental step is normalized over a few days

So far, the "temperature" has been increased every 1-2 days.

Except the virus is doubling over those days so completely ineffective.

Tests are a lagging indicator, the important factor is the R value. R1.5 is vastly better than R2 in the short term but pales beside R0.95. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infe...

Both South Korea and China have successfully gotten below R1, but it’s unclear how long they can maintain that stance.

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