New York Governor announces 100% workforce reduction for non-essential services

There is no comparison here. He is doing a subpar job given his responsibilities.

Manslaughter: the crime of killing a human being without malice aforethought, or otherwise in circumstances not amounting to murder.

I don't understand why this meme keeps getting repeated, when the power to quarantine has been rather conclusively litigated in the courts.

Speech and movement can be restricted with good cause, and this virus certainly counts. States right now very much have the legal power to say "no gatherings of any sort, no leaving your house without good cause, etc".

Not particularly, curfew and similar restrictions are common emergency measures, and their is no Constitutional difference for greater scale except that it reduces the possibility of it being covert discrimination. And, even if it was, Cuomo had one of the most pressing needs to do it of any state, and was slower than some others. Now, I'm not arguing he was negligent, but he's not a head-and-shoulders above everyone else standout the way he's been portrayed upthread, either.

> On the other hand, the state can totally shut down businesses

Cuomo was slow at that, too.

> I will further note that for Cuomo to be criminally prosecuted, he would need to commit some crime

Untrue. People are criminally prosecuted (and even convicted) without committing crimes all the time. He'd have to be accused of a crime, though.

Is that really fighting with the President?

Republicans have a fundamentally different philosophy about disaster management that matches their general philosophy about government.

Democrats generally prefer a centralized response, while Republicans want local control. I haven't heard any Republican object to Calfornia acting independently. That's actually doing what Republicans prefer.

For the tone-impaired amongst us, if you are taking one of the positions, can you please help this simpleton understand what you think of China's proclamation?

I ask because I really don't know what most people think these days about the news coming out of China.

Sincere thanks.

https://twitter.com/CarolYujiaYin/status/1239583581325778944

Here in the USA we are only two days removed from having run Democratic primaries where millions of people lined up and crowded together in small rooms - the total opposite of what China (and South Korea and Japan) have done. Images of packed beaches and boardwalks continue to emerge. The unfortunate fact is that many Americans aren't taking this pandemic seriously which is going to result in a much worse time of it than it could have otherwise been.

We already know most test results are days late from the actual swabbing + ~5-10 days of being asymptomatic + showing early symptoms before ending up in a hospital to be tested. Making the results we see from HK's (free) press today are up to 2 weeks old already and China's second wave could have already started.

Either way mainland China faces a similar increase by the second-wave return of citizens as people return from visiting the rest of the world - a world increasingly being ravaged by COVID. Ignoring the global travel, HK<>mainland travel is super common and a good early signal for mainland.

I personally know lots of Chinese citizens who stayed in Canada after early results from China and are waiting it out here with family.

I highly doubt the Chinese authorities can rest until the virus is shutdown globally. We live in a global economy with China as the engine. If China returns to normal before that it won't be long until super-infectors return to some of the most densely populated cities on the planet and everyone is being told to self-isolate again.

If China does end self-isolation (or the far more authoritarian measures that aren't found elsewhere) early then they also better close their borders from inbound travelers and tell their returning citizens to stay where they are.

[1] https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/artic...

How many hundreds of thousands or millions of preventable deaths are acceptable to you for a faster bounceback of the economy?

So far, the "temperature" has been increased every 1-2 days.

It's not primarily intended to tell individuals "you must stay home," just to strongly encourage that and make it easier for us to do so.

From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.h... :

A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection.

From https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19#Inkubationszeit :

...the incubation period can be up to 14 days. In addition, there are reports from Chinese researchers that extend the possible incubation period up to 24 days. An analysis of the first 425 cases reported in Wuhan shows an incubation period of 5.2 days on average and an average age of 59 years. ... A statistical analysis of several reports of infections in a household or in another narrow spatial limitation (so-called clusters) shows an incubation period of 5–6 days on average.

Anyway, as long as people don't keep distance between each other, the situation won't improve. Here in Switzerland the limit was shurunk within ~2 weeks from groups of people of max 1000 to 500 to 100 to 10 to 5 (today's new guidelines) => so far nothing improved.

The company I'm working for reacted early => many employees started staying at home (and working remotely) already 3 weeks ago, like myself => at the beginning it was ok for me, but now it's getting psychologically a bit "heavy". Luckily the government so far did not implement a total curfew, so from time to time we can still walk a bit in the parks/forests (but alone).

1. X incubates for a week

2. X gets symptoms and infects spouse

3. X's spouse incubates for a week

4. X's spouse worsens for a few weeks

5. X's spouse dies

- 1st: Right to peacefully assemble

- 14th “nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law”

5th has similar text to 14th.

To be clear: I’m not arguing that the various govts. can’t impose quarantines or isolation orders, I’m just outlining which parts of the constitution are relevant to the legal questions.

Hate and shame feeds reactionary behavior and is counter productive. If you disagree with someone, empathize with them as a human being and explain how their behavior is hurting others

And while he sees that it’s impossible to stop every single rapist, he’s willing to settle for victims just not bothering him with it.

Regardless, if true, we made our bed, now we get to sleep in it. As you sow, so shall you reap.

We do not know the outcome because it lies in the future, but the human mind provides the host such a high resolution image of it that it can easily be mistaken for actual reality if one isn't disciplined.

As the Internet just becomes another part of the real world (down from the lofty "alternate universe" it was imagined it would be in the cyberpunk era), I'm 100% on board with people having real-world consequences for bad online behavior.

Sounds good!? But healthy young people aren't building up antibodies.

Which means when we end social distancing, the virus will start spreading just like it did before.

The goal here isn't to prevent everyone from getting it. The goal is to slowly build up heard immunity, in a way that doesn't overly burden the healthcare system, and to hopefully learn some new treatments along the way.

https://depts.washington.edu/uwviro/

What you accept and what you choose to spend your precious finite attention on are not the same thing.

If anything, what I suggest is the opposite of what you're saying. I do accept that some small fraction of people will do dumb shit, as they have through time immemorial. And, because I accept that, I feel no need to waste my time and emotional energy reading about it on social media and getting all outraged about it.

> And that's why we need enforcement.

Sure, but what we don't need is every social media site plastering pictures of people not wearing seatbelts with headlines like "Look at this horrid fucker not wearing their seatbelt! How can they be so thoughtless?!"

> Moreover unless you're able to outright deny people medical care for their negligence (which we can't do), unnecessary Coronavirus cases put more burden on everyone.

I fully understand the implications of non-compliance with social distancing measures. I don't agree with people who aren't doing it.

What I am saying is that it is not beneficial to crowd social media with stories of those people. After you read a Reddit thread about some selfish assholes partying up in Miami... then what? What is the action? I'm not going to personally fly to Miami and scold them. Me consuming that story has added nothing of value to my life, nor has it materially addressed the problem in any way.

All it does us make me feel angry and shitty. I've got enough bad feelings floating around because of, you know, the global pandemic. I don't need impotent manufactured outrage on top of that. What I and others need to get through the day are reminders of all of the good that people are doing.

And those same reminders are also a good way to encourage people to do what they're supposed to do. Do you want to live in a world where we teach people who to be by giving them heroes to aspire to, or by having the threat of public shaming and punishment looming over them 24/7?

When I read this sort of angry screed it scares me because it suggests to me that people are unstable, that behavior and reasoning can suddenly change due to switching contexts.

Not homeless and income or wealth > 100k? 1% annual gross income or net wealth (greater of both) per occurrence with a 1% daily compounding interest rate of the principal amount until paid in full. If third incident mandatory minimum of 5 years imprisonment and $1,000,000 fine or 50% wealth whichevers greater. Non payment prevents release.

If you lock down early you irreparably harm the local economy and simply delay a spike instead of "flattening the curve" unless you are willing to except a year long lock down, massive economic depression and the colapse of the US Dollar

But, since we're starting from zero natural immunity and a virulent disease with long hospitalizations, if you actually do the math here it never works - there's no situation where you can keep the number of infected low enough to not use up too many hospital beds and also high enough to get population immunity in any reasonable period of time. Those values simply don't overlap (which apparently someone has told the UK now, I guess).

The only viable approach is massive lockdowns to reduce the number of infected to a reasonable number followed by super-aggressive public health interventions for each and every infected person to control future spread.

"Near eradication" is not enough if you want to "snuff it out". COVID-19 started with only a couple of cases. There was a patient zero.

So no, "a little extra short-term sacrifice" would not be enough, because you are very unlikely to catch everything, especially worldwide. Health workers would inevitably catch it by treating patients, and you can't just tell the entire world to stay home for 3 weeks. Even if you could snap your fingers and do that and have everyone obey, we don't have the infrastructure to provide worldwide basic needs, for free, for everyone, in an automated way; billions would die.

Mitigation until vaccine is the only sensible way we know of at this time. Gradual lockdowns to help contain the virus for cities and countries that don't have the testing infrastructure available to seriously prevent spread.

We're lucky that this is treated in days/weeks (rather than months/years), and that we have already found a promising treatment (hydroxychloroquine). It'll help the mitigation phase a lot.

Edit: To address "If we adopt a stance that makes R0 < 1, there is no other stochastically possible outcome.": This is untrue if you're time-bounding this to "before we make a generally-available vaccine".

Also, how do you think we will be able to support and help those more vulnerable if we don't have any economic output? Will printing money make supplies appear from nowhere?

It's real easy to shut down businesses and livelihoods when politicians are not responsible for the economic fallout.

>The drivers would be required to wear surgical masks

There's already a shortage of masks for hospitals.

>wash the back seat of the car before each passenger.

You think they'd actually do that rather than getting more fares? Also, don't forget to clean every control in the back, the door handles, the inside door handles, seat belts and probably the air filter.

The low CFR rate is simply time. It takes roughly 3 weeks from infection to death. Meaning deaths should be compared with count of infections 2-3 weeks ago to calculate CFR.

Separately, there likely were a number more than died from it previously that didn't get testing because testing was so hard to come by (and the scope of the spread was not yet understood).

If NYC hospitals get overwhelmed like they are possibly on pace to, don't be shocked if you see CFR rise up to 4-5%. Especially as growth in new cases no longer out strip existing (which suppresses naively calculated CFR).

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/how-fast-is-cor...

Edit: originally post I replied to said 0.007%