Based on documented facts and best epidemiological guesses about the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV, I think it will probably turn into a pandemic affecting most countries. Let's review:

  • human-to-human transmission while asymptomatic, truly the killer feature [1]
  • 15% mortality rate in first patients (6 of 41 are dead) [2]
  • cases/deaths doubling every 2 days [public data]
  • epidemiologist predicts 100x more infections in 10 days [3]

Caveats:

• mortality rate sample is small (41) and the first patients are likely to be the most severe cases (pre-existing conditions, weak immune systems, etc); so the true rate could be less.

• public reports of cases/deaths could be increasing slower than reported because Chinese authorities could be trying to be more truthful (IOW reported numbers are finally catching up w/reality); or alternatively public reports could be lagging reality because authorities could be increasingly hiding the facts or simply be less and less able to report and monitor as Wuhan is turning into a bigger unmanageable chaos every passing day

• availability of medicine may limit the outbreak. The pulmonologist who discovered the SARS coronavirus says they have several medicines ready: https://twitter.com/hhh05146721/status/1220953373622534145

[1] https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(...

[2] https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(...

[3] https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1