Hacker News Reader

Hacker News

Comment by disconnected | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

disconnected

> the market has finally caught up to the fact that Tesla is years ahead of their competitors.

Incorrect. The stock value is being pushed up by:

1. Unexpected quarterly profits in October;

2. Tesla planning to open a new factory in China and securing a 1.4 Billion dollar loan to do so;

3. Apparent strong interest in the Cybertruck and the impending announcement of the Model Y;

4. USA and China are easing the trade war, which is pushing the whole stock market up (there have been "records" left and right in the past few days).

But the big one is number 2. Tesla moving into China means that they can tap into the humongous Chinese market.

View on HN

Well, TSLA is a very sentiment-heavy stock, so it's hard or impossible to say what exactly caused this recent run.

For example, they've been guiding Q3 and Q4 profitablity since ~Q2 or earlier. They started building the Shanghai factory in Q1, the Model Y was announced in March, the Truck's been talked up since forever, etc.

What's really changed is that the Taycan is no longer a mystery, but a real car with a real price tag and real range. The ID.3 is almost-real and struggling with software issues. The E-Tron, new Leaf, new Bolt, etc have real sales figures. When these were unknowns, you could be reasonably skeptical of Tesla's claims, but that's increasingly untenable.

Or, as the great Silicon Valley philosothoughtleader Russ Hanneman said: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo

Everything you just typed can be explained by the phrase "Tesla is years ahead of their competitors", so not sure why you're so solid on that "Incorrect" statement.

5. Tesla is one of the most manipulated large cap stocks on Wall Street. You're observing one of the many rounds of a pump and dump and 6 months from now it'll be at just above 200 again as something "bad" is discovered by the "free" press just in time for the big players to cash out again. Anyone who buys at 420 is a sucker.

Stock is up mostly because of short-covering. This is what a textbook case of a short-squeeze looks like.

Tesla already sells cars in the Chinese market, especially since there is really no other EV luxury alternative and Beijing ICE plate lottery allocations are lower than the EV ones. The factory means Model3s no longer need to be imported, so should be cheaper.

>impending announcement of the Model Y

The Model Y was announced in mid-March, to generally negative reviews/market reaction.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com