I think Disney+ will be more successful than anyone can imagine. I don't know how Netflix will survive when the competition of Disney+ and HBO Max will have 95% of the best tv shows and movies.
Compare that to Disney’s library. People still care about Disney’s animated movies from the 30s and even adults are nostalgic about the 90s X-men animated TV show and the original Star Wars from the 70s.
Besides, Disney makes billions from their content from theatrical releases, video on demand, network and cable TV, theme parks, toy sales, etc.
That's what's killing subscriber growth. Lack of quality content. HBO has about the same number of subscribers, at a 50% higher subscription cost. The revenue is there to be had for someone with good enough content.
Despite spending $10b a year, Netflix's biggest shows are still ones it licenses (Friends, The Office, etc.) and they're losing them one by one. They've shown that for whatever reason, quality content isn't a problem you can solve by spending alone.
1. Produce a ton of stuff, over a long period of time, and some of it will turn out to be good.
2. Buy someone else's content library.
Disney has done both.
HBO is batting at least .700, and Netflix is not even batting .100. That's not randomness. I don't know nearly enough about the industry to know why.
but what I do know is that Netflix has probably spent more money on content in The last two years then HBO has spent in its entire history, and HBO's library is significantly more valuable.
I was in the valley during the time the music industry was being gangbanges by technology and I have a good guess as to why. Tech people often make the mistake of thinking non-tech people are stupid. Pure speculation on my part, but I would guess that Netflix thought they could solve the problem by throwing money and technology at it, and the people who have been making good content for 20 years were just better.
I think you are contradicting yourself here. If the quality was good they wouldn't have mentioned not having big releases as being the reason why their subscriber growth was slow.
>Compare that to Disney’s library. People still care about Disney’s animated movies from the 30s and even adults are nostalgic about the 90s X-men animated TV show and the original Star Wars from the 70s.
I think you are arguing in favor of what I was saying?
>Besides, Disney makes billions from their content from theatrical releases, video on demand, network and cable TV, theme parks, toy sales, etc.
Yes, and for some strange reason Disney trades at 2x the market cap of netflix with 17x p/e while netflix trades at 88x p/e. Either Disney is severely undervalued or Netflix is severely overvalued (or both).
No, I’m saying that Disney’s library content has value and doesn’t have to be hit driven to be successful. If Netflix’s only way of gaining customers is by keep getting in debt to fund new content, it has an unsustainably high customer acquisition cost. If customers don’t care enough to stick around to have access to its library content, the lifetime value of a customer is low.
Either Disney is severely undervalued or Netflix is severely overvalued (or both).
Why does Uber and Lyft have any value at all when they are losing billions and have no hope of having profits that justify their value? Dropbox should also be valued at zero. Market cap is not a substitute for sound business fundamentals like actually having a profitable business model.
The interesting part of the streaming space is that the incumbents actually have an advantage over the upstart technology company. They are joining the party almost 8 years after netflix and will probably succeed just because of the massive repository of content they have accrued over the past 60 to 70 years.
Netflix actually has a lot of quality original shows. All modern as they are all from this decade.
People want hits though, so that isn’t helping Netflix enough.
I don’t see any media company including Comcast’s media companies being close to Disney and runner up Warner in terms of content. Which is basically business model at this point. Netflix can’t compare to Disney, but all the other media companies can’t either. They are going to have to do something as well.
Netflix has some of the best shows I've seen in a long time. It also has some is the worst. Just like Disney.
As far as Pixar movies, it doesn’t matter what you are interested in, look at their box office, home video, video on demand results and related merchandise sells and theme park attractions.
I think old content is overrated. People subscribe for the new stuff. If they watch old stuff, it's mostly to fill the time before a new show comes out.
Come one. Saying people is a cop out? Everyone, no way. So how many people, because that is what matters.
Early hype for the Mouse House’s upcoming streaming service, Disney+, appears to be building, with 24% of Americans saying they’re “extremely likely” to subscribe once it’s available in November, according to a Tuesday survey from UBS. That would come out to about 30.2 million U.S households. Another 19% said they’re “somewhat likely” to subscribe, which, if grabbed by Disney, would add another 24.2 million U.S. households to its fold. Disney execs, on the other hand, have projected Disney+ will pull in up to 30 million subscribers by the end of 2024
Pixar is amazing. But it isn’t without warts either. The Cars franchise and releasing two movies in one year with The Good Dinosaur bombing as a result.
That’s one of Disney’s corporate strengths. Yes it’s sad.
They need to spend a lot on familiar/legacy content as they did recently with Seinfeld.
I personally had no issue canceling my family members plan at their request.