Take a really simple portfolio... I buy (or go long on) 1 share of GOOG and 1 share of MSFT. Over a decade I make an average of a 7% return per annum, while the random strategy makes, 8%.
What exactly would the inverse of my strategy be? To go short on GOOG and MSFT? That would do even worse and in that case I'd actually lose money.
Stay vigilant out there traders, don't eat the 30% haircut that will be visiting global financial markets shortly.
I am not at all confident that anyone can predict when it will come well enough to avoid it.
Remember that the last 3 months of 2018 saw the market drop ~20%, only for it to recover over the next 3. Were you able to sell in September and buy at the bottom in December? Almost certainly not...
Alarms bells are ringing in this market... If your good at risk management and can initiate low cost perma-bearish positions, you will be rewarded heavily over the next year or so.
Alpha chasers that don't have risk management skills should just buy Bitcoin (dont sleep on this, the halvening is May 2020-ish). Dollar-Cost-Averaging will get you a decent entry price.
Warning: Bought more 120,130,140 AAPL puts in prep for next collapse, if your in my way, I will literally eat your lunch.
Good luck guys!
No, it would be to take 1 share of every stock except GOOG and MSFT and it would work (well, under the given assumptions and with random = 1 stock of every pick).