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Is there any evidence for the "shake-out"? I haven't seen it in 20 years, demand for new web applications continues to outpace supply of competent developers. A recession is not a "shake-out" because it hits experienced developers hardest, if anything it's an opportunity for green developers.

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> I haven't seen it in 20 years

Really? 19 years ago was the start of the dot com implosion and the wailing and gnashing of teeth from suddenly unemployed web developers trying to find new jobs was well nigh deafening. The drought of jobs lasted for several years.

Like I said, it hits the experienced people hardest. At the bottom of the bust, there were still tons of new web properties going up, redesigns happening, and so on, and you could absolutely get a job building websites. I know plenty of people who got started in the industry at that time.

I'm very bullish about the future for web developers until we see the web contract as a platform. And I think we have a long way to go until that happens.

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