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Comment by kaycebasques | Hacker News Reader

I have respect for successful managers like Dalio and Soros because you can’t reach their level of success while deluding yourself about how the world economy works. And anyone who has invested/speculated with a lot of their own money knows how emotionally hard it is to make the right decisions day in and day out. For that reason, when Dalio talks about the economy, it’s worth considering what he’s saying. Moreso than politicians or economists.

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Another way to look at it... With thousands of people playing the game, some are bound to be the luckiest. It doesn't necessarily mean they have more insight.

If you are in the industry you will realize that it is extremely difficult to be consistently right. His success is not attributable to pure luck only.

If you have enough people guessing coin flips, one of them will be consistently right... and then claim credit for how difficult it was. Just look at all the people who failed!

Taleb is big on this idea applying widely in the finance sphere.

For what it's worth, Taleb called Ray Dalio a "legendary investor" in his book antifragile.

That is really not the case here. Look at Jim Simmons for example. And also Taleb is a brat who thinks he is the greatest investor ever to live just because he knows what martingale is.

I'll put Soros down as one of the traders who definitely did have a lot of insight.

I have stumbled upon a number of these types of texts recently and while I think it is generally a good thing I can't help noticing that they are quite... basic. Most of his concerns have been solved by mixed market economies, that overall deliver superior results. But even that discussion is probably a couple of decades too late.

Sorry which points of his are basic and which oone are solved?

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