Hedge-fund billionaire Ray Dalio says capitalism is failing America
businessinsider.com
businessinsider.com
Taleb is big on this idea applying widely in the finance sphere.
Companies like Bridgewater gain when policy changes like this happen. Regular people lose because tax cuts are paid for by cutting public services, and pushing part of the cost on to the next generation.
What's Mr. Dalio doing to remedy that imbalance, aside from writing a self-serving Buffet-style "I should be taxed more" essay?
EDIT: I would also like to point out that he's calling for a national state of emergency to be declared and for the government to step in and try and do something about the worsening inequality problem. A person with massive personal wealth who is able to enact things with their own resources calling for the problem to be tackled in the public sphere is a good thing too, I think.
Because he's rich and influential, Dalio will get a few column inches, but after that, the levers of power, pulled by the rich and influential, go about their daily business.
Or perhaps, you dream of being mega rich yourself and want things to stay the way they are now so you can make it?
Is this a serious question?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Papers
Ray Dalio has taken his chunk, is retiring, but senses the social and political winds are changing. Being a billionaire is no longer something people "respect", and is very rarely "earned". I'm sure he doesn't want the Proletariat knocking on his door in his old age.
Billionaires who advocate for higher income tax, but not a higher capital gains rate, are just pulling up the ladder behind them. The article isn't explicit with what Dalio is advocating for here.
Maybe it’s in his proposal but I didn’t see any mention of bringing back the estate (death) tax on the rich or increasing capital gains.
It is clear that these people are uninterested in paying higher taxes as it is completely legal to pay more taxes without any legislation. Thr website pay.gov accepts money for those who would like to contribute to the operations and debt costs of the united states government.
Until buffett and others make actual extra tax contributions to the government (as opposed to their own private charity), I'll continue to ignore them
I'm not sure what you're criticizing but Dalio's post is explicitly about economic mobility, i.e. reducing barriers preventing more people from getting rich in the future.
Talk is cheap.
Does anyone know if there is a term for this? It's a bit reminiscent of 'regulatory capture' but that doesn't seem quite right.
Where did you read that? Tax policy is ludicrously complex by design. Simply saying "we should pay higher taxes" is broad enough to be meaningless. Increasing income tax for example would barely make a dent in their take-home, because the majority of their wealth comes through capital gains tax.
Not to mention the numerous documented loopholes in the tax system that allow people in Dalio/Buffet's position to move money around the world at a moment's notice and pay nothing in federal tax.
The loopholes are there, but they never get fixed, thanks to lobbying from the big 4 audit firms that depend on blue chip clients like him to fatten their paycheques.
Just because Dalio has an arms-length connection to the dysfunctional tax system doesn't mean he;s ignorant as to why the system is the way it is.
This is solved by taxing very high wealth, not just very high income.
> it hits those who might actually try to get rich in the future.
Not those who try, just those who actually get very rich. None of the current tax increase proposals target the wealth or income of even slightly rich people (low millions of net worth or low 100ks of income), just the very rich (> 50mil net worth).
That still leaves a ton of room for incentivizing getting rich below that number.
IMO, calling for higher taxes is the same thing to do, rather than performing some sort of empty virtue signaling.
How does it do that? These are just words. Dalio and his hand-wringing clique have no issue speaking platitudes about economic justice, and turning right around and lobbying politicians for more tax cuts, less regulation and fewer consumer protections.
How are you going to get rich in the future when real wages for consumers haven't budged in 4 decades? Do you plan on delivering a product people can actually afford, or simply engage in the financial chicanery that made the 2008 recession possible?
He can stand up and talk like a leader, but until he's willing to financially back candidates who are genuinely interested in solving these problems (which likely means backing a candidate against his own financial interests), this is all hot air.
[0]: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/toprecips.php?id=D000032123...
I think things are more complicated than what you've said. There may be good reasons to donate to a candidate who wouldn't support these ideas if that donation could nevertheless help sway their views on the issue. Opposition isn't the only strategy in politics. Sometimes you need to donate a nominal amount just to keep your foot in the door and the conversation open.
It's very different, however, for those who can donate enough to meet with politicians, and leverage their money into changing the politician's views.
"I'm donating money to you, fiscally conservative senator Cotton, because I disagree with your policy and think you should adopt a more progressive policy, even though it's against the fundamental tenants of your party. Despite the fact that your fiscally conservative policy greatly benefits me financially, I hope you change your position and adopt a more progressive policy, even if it hurts me financially."
If this were truly his state of mind, why not back a progressive instead, that he knows is going support these reforms? This makes no sense to me.
Precisely! It's similar to how Hillary Clinton's biggest donor was Goldman Sachs. They don't agree ideologically, but that's why it's important to donate and build favor in order to sway their views.
> If this were truly his state of mind, why not back a progressive instead, that he knows is going support these reforms? This makes no sense to me.
It's a good question! Imagine you align with the Democrats, and you have a lot of money to put behind your vote. When you look at the voting districts of America, you can see three types of races:
Democrat-ensured, Close, Republican-ensured
Democrat-ensured: Now if you want to maximize the impact of your money, there's no point in donating to Democrat-ensured races. Geoff Diehl had no way of beating Elizabeth Warren, for example, and we could argue that giving Warren a large war chest won't be that impactful for her Senate race.
Close: In these districts, you should clearly back the Democrat, and offer financial support. It will have an impact, and possibly contribute to a win.
Republican-ensured: In these districts, where people overwhelmingly vote Republican, you're not going to get anywhere by backing a Democrat who shares all of your views. It would be a waste. Politicians are always looking to fundraise, however, and are willing to budge on one or two issues for enough funding.
In a world where Republican-ensured is a large percentage of districts, and Democrats need votes from across the aisle to get something passed, you _need_ cooperation, and a Democrat donating to a Republican is often where it can come from.
Dalio clearly benefits financially from conservative fiscal policy, which senators like Cotton support. It's a big stretch to argue that Dalio might be trying to sway Cotton on his fiscal policy while also benefiting financially from it.
Here is the link (original on linked in) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-how-capitalism-needs-refo...
And keep in mind that isn't even his firm giving the money. Also, giving more than $2,700 to a candidate is illegal anyway, so "financially backing a candidate" is kind of a nonsense standard to hold a person to.
Money in politics is a problem, to be sure, but one that is commonly overstated in this sort of light, and what you are saying here is that he should be giving more money, which is kind of the opposite of what we should be thinking of things.
It's entirely possible that Ray Dalio has some views on the tax code reform that may not align with mainstream republicans, but that doesn't mean the other 90% of policies the other politician supports align with his views. Or even that the other camp has the same tax reform policies in mind as he does.
I've seen many people who want to reform the tax code, which would involve a greater relative share of taxes for the top end, who wouldn't identify as democrats.
Tell that to all the black gun owners who vote R because they don't want wake up one day and find out they're felons or all the fiscal conservatives who vote D because they believe healthcare and the climate are bigger short term issues.
I generally agree with you that people back whoever pushes policy they like most but people also have deal-breakers that will cause them to back the other guy even if they don't like his platform.
It's not unreasonable to think that someone might agree with the bulk of a party's platform, but disagree on a single issue that's most important to them and can't bring themselves to vote for anyone in that party because of it.
I can imagine guns, abortion, the military, taxes, etc. might fit that bill as someone's single most important issue.
The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. Organization totals may include subsidiaries and affiliates.
Mccormick, David Mr $13780
Halvey, John K Mr $7458
https://search.maplight.org/contributions/?candidate_name=Th...
Over the same time period, Dalio himself has given to:
John McCain $10200 Mitt Romney $2300 Rudolph Giuliani $2300
https://search.maplight.org/contributions/?donor_organizatio...
Which is just a terrible thing to say, but it's unfortunately our political reality right now.
It's odd that we as a society get so riled up over the smallest allegation of cheating in a sports game or get upset when a ref does not see the smallest thing that should be flagged, thus potentially changing the outcome of the game, but we live in a society where cheating, gaming, deflating, etc. happens all day every day and we don't bat an eye.
In the vein of this conversation, he does not argue against inequality, and breaks out of the capitalism/communist spectrum. Instead he proposed the strictures under which inequality should be allowed to persist in what he calls the Difference Principle:
Social and economic inequalities should be arranged so that they are both (a) to the greatest benefit of the least advantaged persons, and (b) attached to offices and positions open to all under conditions of equality of opportunity.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_as_Fairness:_A_Restate...
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli...
Here is the new LinkedIn post -- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-how-capitalism-needs-refo...
And here is a link to PDF -- https://www.economicprinciples.org/downloads/Why-and-How-Cap...
It is responsible for the most prosperity, the lifting up of poverty, and improvement in living conditions and life expectancy in the history of literal history.
I hate how capitalism has become a political boogeyman now. Fortunately, it has actually served to unite some of the left-wing and right-wing thinkers and forge some unlikely alliances.
Probably completely off-topic, but having listened to many of his interviews, it's also one of the main reasons why Howard Schultz chose to run as an independent instead of a democrat.
The rest of this comment is beyond ridiculous.
But let's assume you're right.
The problem then is that the purpose of society is not to create efficient markets, it's the purpose of efficient markets to maintains and support a functional society. Markets are a means not an ends. On their own they have no moral compass, they're simply a distributed genetic algorithm seeking supply/demand maxima. There's nothing intrinsic about the structure of capitalism that suggests it tends towards a fair and equitable society. Indeed, large companies have a long history of supporting and co-operating with some of the worst dictators in history.
The state, when it works, can be a means of directing market forces - either through taxation or regulation - towards ends that society thinks are beneficial. I don't get a vote in how IBM or Microsoft or Facebook operate. I do get to vote for representatives who I think will keep these companies in check and, for example, stop Facebook from surveilling me everywhere I go. I don't know about you, but I'm not interested in solutions to cronyism that mean I have even less power over my environment.
In more advanced nations, access to capital isn't an overall issue. However, economic growth is low single digits in a "good" year. And if you shift to other measures of people's security, as shown in Dalio's collection of data, the improvements are slowing or even reversing.
This isn't making capitalism a boogeyman. It's a serious criticism of a phenomena that we need to understand, or, as Dalio points out, we're in for a lot of serious chaos ahead.
The way our society define and value ourselves primarily on a couple of economic metrics seems misguided. These metrics are not representative of people's well being in our modern, more technological advanced society.
I think our definition of capitalism needs to evolve (like Andrew Yang says).
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I really don't see how this could happen, but even if there's some kind of accommodation, it's simply a band-aid to the underlying problem.
Which is that the 'means of production' needs to be OWNED by the people producing. Not a corporate owner (or even an 'entrepreneur'), and not 'the state', but the collective that actually does the work, commensurate with their overall contribution.
There's also a huge issue around land ownership, and the rents that derive from it. Currently, simply owning land in a fast-developing city gives you a share in the bounty that others are creating, and also taxes those generating it.
Land itself is a common inheritance. Should air or water also be subject to such 'ownership'?
You sound similar to an anarcho-syndicalist, which is a position I've never understood well. Let me ask a question in the form of example.
Bob, Ted, and Jim want to start a pin factory. All three want to work for it. So they pool their capital, contributing $250k, 300k, and 350k respectively, receiving proportional equity, invest in equipment, and all three go to work making pins after 2 months. They hire other workers. The contract for all workers gives a vesting schedule that gives them equity over time as well.
The fact that CAPEX has to be provided by employees is not a good feature of this. Should shareholders that have never held a job with the firm not be allowed to invest in it? That is exceedingly restrictive.
Selling equity would allow the firm to raise capital while splitting the risk with the investor(s). It makes the investor a partner in the firm's success or failure.
I would tend to agree except that it's an awful way to diversify risk and a comically bad way to allocate capital. Even if you were to exploit resources to their maximum, I'd give you at most two generations before you'd need to use force to keep the system working.
And this isn't a defence of capitalism, especially not modern US capitalism. That's pretty shitty too but it does scale and is mostly stable.
And while we're here. So water is a common inheritance and can't be owned. Water treatment is owned by the water treaters. There's no state or corporations to sub them. How do you get clean water given no-one is going to be stupid enough to starve to death as a water treater?
I would agree though that right now the brain is eating the fingers as it puts food in the mouth. But shooting the brain doesn’t fix the problem.