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Comment by mcot2 | Hacker News Reader

The Bull thesis is that Tesla has a lot more going for it than just being a car company like GM or Ford. A couple of things most people point to:

1.) Software Skills - Autonomous driving, over the air updates, giant screen + app, future possibility of ride sharing network. Most people see the legacy automakers as very deficient in software.

2.) Semi-Truck Project - This can go a lot of places.

3.) Supercharger network. It’s sort of like also owning the gas stations. They already have a huge lead in DC fast charging.

4.) Expertise in batteries/packs/Gigafactory. This is pretty much the entire game going forward.

5.) Ancillary battery products, Powerwall and Powerpack. Battery storage is expected to be a gigantic industry by itself.

6.) Solar Roof - Also expected to be a gigantic industry by itself.

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Software Skills

I'll grant you they could have an edge here, but would listen to arguments the other way. Plenty of talented software people out there, and Tesla has no monopoly

Semi-Truck Project

They were not the first, and are behind other companies right now. No capital to manufacture it.

Supercharger network

You're right, it's like owning the gas stations. And gas station owners will do the same. Installing chargers isn't hard. Very shallow moat.

Expertise in batteries/packs/Gigafactory

Most of which is Panasonic, but they do have some high tech pack management systems. Probably an advantage at this point.

Ancillary battery products, Powerwall and Powerpack.

Low margin, competitive space.

Solar Roof

Solar City bail out is complete and the company is being written off internally. Does the Solar Roof even exist? Last I heard it was still "in testing".

At the end of the day Tesla makes cars. Good, innovative, expensive cars. It's also a low margin, competitive space where companies operate at sometimes single-digit multiples of earnings.

> 1.) Software Skills - Autonomous driving, over the air updates, giant screen + app, future possibility of ride sharing network. Most people see the legacy automakers as very deficient in software.

The consensus on autonomous driving is that Waymo is in first, GM is a somewhat distant second, and everyone else (including Tesla) is in the dust. The other bits of software don't really matter if you believe that autonomous driving is the imminent future and manufacturer-owned autonomous ridesharing is going to be the future market.

> 3.) Supercharger network. It’s sort of like also owning the gas stations. They already have a huge lead in DC fast charging.

Gas stations, that famous category of thin margin retail? Tesla has been attempting to go a lock-in route of incompatible chargers, which dents the viability of a charging network if their vehicles don't pan out as well.

> 6.) Solar Roof - Also expected to be a gigantic industry by itself.

There's already a glut of solar panel manufacturing, and Tesla's solar arm has already distinguished itself by mostly being a failure.

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