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Comment by furyg3 | Hacker News Reader

Tesla has a market cap of 58 billion dollars. That's higher than, GMC (55), who I remember selling 10+ million cars last year (or was it 2016?). Tesla produced ~100k cars last year.

I'm a gigantic Tesla fan. I hope they dominate the auto market. Unfortunately, with that kind of market cap, they quite literally have to. So yeah, there are a lot of people out in the world who are betting against Tesla, which is not a totally crazy thing to do.

I don't know if there's some organized attempt to depress the stock, but I can imagine that there are a lot of traders who are pulling their hair out as to why the stock is valued the way it is. To me this explains why there is a decent amount of anti-telsa sentiment online, looking to point out anything bad they perceive out of the company.

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The Bull thesis is that Tesla has a lot more going for it than just being a car company like GM or Ford. A couple of things most people point to:

1.) Software Skills - Autonomous driving, over the air updates, giant screen + app, future possibility of ride sharing network. Most people see the legacy automakers as very deficient in software.

2.) Semi-Truck Project - This can go a lot of places.

3.) Supercharger network. It’s sort of like also owning the gas stations. They already have a huge lead in DC fast charging.

4.) Expertise in batteries/packs/Gigafactory. This is pretty much the entire game going forward.

5.) Ancillary battery products, Powerwall and Powerpack. Battery storage is expected to be a gigantic industry by itself.

6.) Solar Roof - Also expected to be a gigantic industry by itself.

Software Skills

I'll grant you they could have an edge here, but would listen to arguments the other way. Plenty of talented software people out there, and Tesla has no monopoly

Semi-Truck Project

They were not the first, and are behind other companies right now. No capital to manufacture it.

Supercharger network

You're right, it's like owning the gas stations. And gas station owners will do the same. Installing chargers isn't hard. Very shallow moat.

Expertise in batteries/packs/Gigafactory

Most of which is Panasonic, but they do have some high tech pack management systems. Probably an advantage at this point.

Ancillary battery products, Powerwall and Powerpack.

Low margin, competitive space.

Solar Roof

Solar City bail out is complete and the company is being written off internally. Does the Solar Roof even exist? Last I heard it was still "in testing".

At the end of the day Tesla makes cars. Good, innovative, expensive cars. It's also a low margin, competitive space where companies operate at sometimes single-digit multiples of earnings.

> 1.) Software Skills - Autonomous driving, over the air updates, giant screen + app, future possibility of ride sharing network. Most people see the legacy automakers as very deficient in software.

The consensus on autonomous driving is that Waymo is in first, GM is a somewhat distant second, and everyone else (including Tesla) is in the dust. The other bits of software don't really matter if you believe that autonomous driving is the imminent future and manufacturer-owned autonomous ridesharing is going to be the future market.

> 3.) Supercharger network. It’s sort of like also owning the gas stations. They already have a huge lead in DC fast charging.

Gas stations, that famous category of thin margin retail? Tesla has been attempting to go a lock-in route of incompatible chargers, which dents the viability of a charging network if their vehicles don't pan out as well.

> 6.) Solar Roof - Also expected to be a gigantic industry by itself.

There's already a glut of solar panel manufacturing, and Tesla's solar arm has already distinguished itself by mostly being a failure.

Ingrained attitudes.

Imagine your idea of a dream car is something like an Audi RS6 and that you lust after the four exhaust pipes and the noise they make.

Imagine that you have bought a few cars and worked somewhere in the auto trade for one of the big three. You would then sneer at this production volume and consider Tesla to be amateurs, nothing but a side show.

Imagine that you dropped out of doing something for society and have been rent-seeking for many years and no longer think of the collective good but just for yourself. You really would not care about the bigger ideas of moving to a carbon neutral world.

Imagine that you are baby boomer generation and simply do not think electrification of vehicles is a practical reality in your lifetime or your great grandchild's lifetime. For you the world is made of compromises and you were quite happy to gas children with lead in petrol for most of your life without questioning it.

Imagine that you gamble on the stock market or ponzi-coins and only think of opportunities to make money that way rather than creating something of value by actually investing in companies you believe in.

Imagine that you have a narcissistic personality and cannot for the life of you express an opinion that is positive about something you like. With such emotional limitations you could only criticise and point out failings.

Imagine that you work in the media and have the Western Media Mindset that is best described as passive aggressive. If you had to write stories then by definition, because you only work in the media and have never made a car or a component for a car in your life then you could only make stories about failures. Bad news sells papers, idle speculation gives likes and views that can be monetised.

There are lots of people in the world that have these traits and because Tesla are doing something a bit special it attracts them. They write nasty things and say nasty things. They also do not have anything better to do.

This is not to say that everything in Tesla world is perfect but the people with valid criticisms get drowned out by the empty vessels who are not quite empty as they are full of greed and other emotions best left in the playground.

We also live in a bubble and there are only so many places one can put one's money. Many things including everyone's houses are somewhat over-valued right now. Tesla's valuation is not over exceptional. The naysayers also lack the time to study their history and many successful manufacturers started out with massive backlogs and production difficulties. Citroen is one name that comes to mind.

I see Tesla problems as more akin to software engineering. It is easy to criticise a software product and see the many fixes that could be implemented easily but that is not how it works. This we all know on HN but pundits on the news don't.

Industrial scaling is hard but it's also exponential. The gap between 5000 cars and 10000 cars is exponentially smaller than the gap between 1000 cars and 5000 cars. The gap between 10000 cars and 100000 cars is smaller still.

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