From the May 2nd financial results letter:
"We continue to target Model 3 production of approximately 5,000 per week in about two months, although our prior experience has demonstrated the difficulty of accurately forecasting specific production rates at specific points in time because of the exponential nature of the ramp."
http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1b240f1e-b519-4b40-b14b-fea...
But Tesla's production was 2270 vehicles at the end of Q1 and nevertheless the average production over the entire Q2 remained below that number. Didn't you find that surprising?
They definitely aren't at a smooth sustainable build rate yet. They could probably maintain 4-5k/week on the Model 3 but in the pursuit of reaching higher output and increasing efficiency there will probably be more shutdowns this quarter.
I would expect that they might lean on the tent/GA4 line to let them do some more shutdowns and reconfigurations of the main line.
I think they've still got a ways to go before they have smooth and steady production output at the efficiency that they want.
Why not aim for sustained 5000/week, increase QA/reduce re-work and go from there? The fact that Musk is unable or unwilling to take that stance is a red flag for me and underscores my unease.
All of it. Anyone following this story knew they would announce 5000 cars produced at the end of the quarter, hell-or-high-water. Do you think they will produce 5000 cars this week?