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Comment by ajross | Hacker News Reader

> Apple has already moved onto the next technological innovation: Apple Watch and wearables.

Seriously? Are there any number at all to show that wearables are a growth bet at this point? The Apple Watch (which entered the market three years ago!) has had an uptake at least an order of magnitude lower than the iPad, the last "next technological innovation" that turned out not to be. Tablets were hot for a while, but at the end of the day the smartphone market remains an order of magnitude bigger. The watch has never remotely been that hot.

Basically: innovation is hard. Wearables are not looking like the next big thing at this stage, and they are surely not going to save Apple from the expected downturn in smartphone sales.

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Really? People are still saying Apple is in need of being 'saved'? Wow. I wish I was in as much trouble as them.

If it's not better than the most successful consumer product in human history, it's not worth bothering with? Apple is now the most profitable watch company in the world, they sell twice as many iPads as laptops, and sell more of them than even the biggest selling laptop company sells laptops, and their ASP is still going up.

Sure. Failed products. What's the point of even trying.

> expected downturn in smartphone sales.

Which may be a problem some day, but while sals are flat-ish, even their Phone ASPs are still going up. So while growth may not be as rapid as in the past, they'll just have to console themselves by showering in firehoses of cash flow instead.

The Apple Watch is probably a rounding error when compared to the iPhone, however:

"But the most interesting stuff came when Cook referred to the success of Apple Watch. The Watch sales are part of the wearables business which also includes headphones such as Beats and AirPods.

Last May, he said that business is approaching the size of a Fortune 500 company. More recently, last month, the size had crept up so it would fall in the top 400"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2018/02/15/apple-ce...

Thing is the Apple Watch is viewed as a status symbol primarily, despite Apple's marketing and messaging stating its a health monitoring/heads up display type device. Many of the people who buy it have no idea that it'll catch some potentially imminently fatal health conditions: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5683089/Apple-Watc...

Its impressive how many people buy the Apple Watch without understanding what it offers.

I'd hardly call a 200 dollar watch a status symbol by any stretch of the imagination

I think it depends on the income. But, considering many people buy regular watches costing 20 times more, I wouldn't see an Apple watch as a status symbol either.

It sends a message, which my brain's social apparatus parses as a status-symbol brag (and finds very distasteful).

For a great many people, a $200 watch is a luxury.

Apple Watch Alerts New York Man of Health Crisis, Ends Up Saving His Life

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Smart-Watch-Saves-New-...

It's possible that the watch gave him "permission" to go to the hospital, but it would seem as if gushing blood ought to suffice. I don't know what it means if it doesn't.

Sounds like he would've gone to the hospital anyway with those symptoms.

If iPhone sales growth would level to what the Mac is doing then there's not a real problem. Apple is pushing in Enterprise where it wasn't before, services and indeed wearables (I see AirPods everywhere). I think people will buy devices less often, like you saw with iPads. But keep buying Apple.

Remember, Apple seems to enter frustratingly late and frustratingly slow (unless it's to change a port, LOL)

IF wearables is going to be much of a thing I wouldn't expect to see their flagship products come out until everyone else has had some time to work out the kinks with early adopters. Then watch Apple come in with some of the sticky problems solved (like touch on the smartphone, fit/finish with laptops, simpler OS, etc...).

Healthcare digitalization and consumer devices as medical devices is the next huge market that Apple is going to with Wearables. You can clearly see it from their actions that it is a part of their future strategy.

Apple is so big that it needs a huge new market to enter to make a difference in its revenue. Healthcare and transportation are huge markets. Apple is working on both.

I wonder how much of AAPL growth is iPhone sales volume and how much is investors anticipating the next big product category. A cable TV disrupting service hasn't materialized thanks to content owners fear of repeating iTunes's dominance and effective resistance. Cars are hard to build. Medical devices are highly regulated.

Not much, Apples p/e is 17.99 that's not expecting much growth. They simply make insane and slightly growing profit year after year. Honestly they may be undervalued relative to tech stocks as even Microsoft has a p/e of 25.07.

Maybe that's why Buffett is buying more shares.

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