* Bass Diffusion Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model
* Diffusion of Innovation Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations
These models have been fairly accurate in forecasting diffusion of innovation. While many of the innovators have started to exit and move on, this leaves the imitators around in a slowing market.
Apple has been surprisingly good at being the forefront of innovation entering a market. While people play catch up in smartphones, Apple has already moved onto the next technological innovation: Apple Watch and wearables.
While one may argue that Apple is more of an imitator than innovator, they have a really unique strategy. They enter a market after the initial innovators have entered with a product that becomes the Dominant Design [1]. They don't focus on the Innovator or Early Adopter market, but more on the Early Majority and Late Majority and exit before the laggards arrive. The Innovator and Early Adopter market require the most capital in R&D and Marketing with lowest return on investment.