I disagree. I got the opportunity to hear a talk from Jez Humble, and one of his examples was HP and printer drivers. So this is likely in your last scenario there. They still reaped a lot of benefits from fixing their development processes and advancing continuous integration and automated testing. It looks like it might be mentioned in this podcast, though I haven't listened yet:

http://www.se-radio.net/2015/02/episode-221-jez-humble-on-co...

EDIT: HP is covered roughly minutes 8-10.

Also found this, though I'm having trouble getting the video to load to vet it:

https://www.safaribooksonline.com/library/view/continuous-de...