Thanks fnid2 for taking the bet! To clarify the terms of the bet though, I only want to bet on traffic rankings in the USA. It wouldn't surprise me if some Chinese website/s outcompete Facebook in world traffic rankings by then, but that's not really fair because the Chinese government bans Facebook. Is that acceptable to you?
Can you contact me (email address in my HN profile) so I have your email address?
If I win, I'll choose whatever GiveWell ranks as the most cost-effective charity at saving lives in 2015 (http://www.givewell.net/charities/top-charities).
If Alexa closes in the next five years, I suggest that the default action is to cancel the bet, unless we both agree on a new metric.
I'm going to use the email reminder service 3mindme.com to remind me about this bet in 2015, and also add it to my "todo" file in case 3mindme.com doesn't exist in five years.
I'm open to making additional bets with others too, so if you're reading this and want to bet, it's not too late.