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Comment by michaelkeenan | Hacker News Reader

I'd like to bet against the notion that Facebook is dying. I suggest this metric: on May 7, 2015, Facebook will still be one of the top five websites in the USA, measured by Alexa traffic ranking (http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/Facebook.com), and it will still be the most popular social networking website in the USA, again measured by Alexa traffic rankings.

USD$200, winnings go to the winner's favorite charity? Feel free to suggest different terms, metrics, betting amounts, or to make it a personal bet, not a charitable bet.

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I'll take the top 5 metric charity bet. I bet that by May 7, 2015, Facebook will not be in the top 5 sites as ranked by Alexa.

I think it's an easy metric free of dispute. In 5 years, we may argue, "What is a social network?"

But I highly doubt facebook will be in the top 5.

I choose my high school as the recipient of your money when I win. :) I'll be back here in 5 years to see who the winner is. Adding an item to my calendar now. Will respond to this post with the identity of the recipient institution.

Thanks fnid2 for taking the bet! To clarify the terms of the bet though, I only want to bet on traffic rankings in the USA. It wouldn't surprise me if some Chinese website/s outcompete Facebook in world traffic rankings by then, but that's not really fair because the Chinese government bans Facebook. Is that acceptable to you?

Can you contact me (email address in my HN profile) so I have your email address?

If I win, I'll choose whatever GiveWell ranks as the most cost-effective charity at saving lives in 2015 (http://www.givewell.net/charities/top-charities).

If Alexa closes in the next five years, I suggest that the default action is to cancel the bet, unless we both agree on a new metric.

I'm going to use the email reminder service 3mindme.com to remind me about this bet in 2015, and also add it to my "todo" file in case 3mindme.com doesn't exist in five years.

I'm open to making additional bets with others too, so if you're reading this and want to bet, it's not too late.

What if Alexa is no longer around?

Yeah, I thought about that, or what if HN isn't around. There is http://www.longbets.org This is the perfect bet for there.

If alexa isn't around, we can substitute the most popular website ranking website.

LongBets.org is awesome! Thanks for sharing it.

This wager is tailor made for it.

What if the USA is no longer around?

Book it.

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