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Comment by woodandsteel | Hacker News Reader

Did you read the article? Shell said "we are going to be fine, because we are switching our business to things natural gas and biofuels"

What most petroleum companies say, as the article indicates, is that oil demand is going up for a good while longer. That's because if the idea gets around that demand is going to peak, they won't be able to borrow the gigantic amounts of capital they need to keep drilling new wells.

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> That's because if the idea gets around that demand is going to peak, they won't be able to borrow the gigantic amounts of capital they need to keep drilling new wells.

Alternative hypothesis: it's simple denial, much like Nokia and more recently RIM.

Alternative alternative hypothesis: they're correct, because the move towards renewable energy and electrified transportation is more than offset by increased oil consumption caused by economic growth in poor countries.

I don't understand that idea. From what I understand, most oil is used for transportation, so if EV's get cheaper than ICE, which it seems is going to happen in less than a decade, won't all the newly-prosperous developing world people buy EV's instead?

I'd be surprised if it happens that quickly for the low-end cars that newly-prosperous people in third-world countries would buy. Even if it does, insufficient electrical infrastructure might get in the way. In any case, I'm not saying it must happen this way, only that it's a possible basis for such a prediction that doesn't rely on oil companies being stupid or duplicitous.

I seem to remember BP saying that under Lord Browne. How long did that last?

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