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Comment by ryandrake | Hacker News Reader

We've all done that exercise in school where the professor tells everyone ahead of time to bring a coin to class. Then he has everyone stand up and flip a coin. Everyone who flips tails sits down. Those remaining standing flip it again, those flipping tails sit down, repeat until there is one person standing.

Then interview that last person and ask her what her technique was, how could she possibly flip heads 6 times in a row? What hard work and practice did she do ahead of time to make her such a good coin flipper? What daily habits produced this proficiency? This is essentially what we do when we try to be successful simply by asking successful people what they did.

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I was the winner of that in my class. They asked me how I won, and I said, "eh, it's nothing." 13 years ago, with no brain, head, arms, or legs, I beat out several million peers to fertilize The Egg. This is just the afterglow of that awesomeness.

A lot of those millions of peers actually play support roles so that the speedsters like you can make it to the egg (especially before any rival mates sperm makes it there).

Just thought I'd point that out given how there are some parallels to how many people play support roles within society while only a few make it to the pinnacle. Yet we still say that those at the pinnacle 'beat' all their peers.

Of course the person who chose to not flip their coin at all...didn't end up being the person to flip the most heads in a row.

So the truth lies somewhere between "it's entirely chance" and "it's entirely hard work/intelligence/participation".

Or, in my case in that school exercise: "I cheated." And so did the other finalist. But he was a known scoundrel, and I was the 'nice kid.' The last coin flip was the only one that was monitored. I won, and it was hailed and a just result. So, it's not all luck.

The problem is that no one is reading Steve Jobs' memoirs to find out that the secret to winning, is that you have to play... they want some secret to win the game.

>We've all done that exercise in school

Ha! I have not, but that's a great exercise. I'd be interested in hearing the "winner's" responses to the questions.

If we had all done that exercise in school, more people would be better at managing their money. This analogy only works if "success" or whatever is a random walk (like I believe picking stocks is).

Yea, totally relevant exercise when you want to explain to students the phenomenon of the "superstar mutual fund manager".

Yep. Logically speaking, what is the probability of billionaire regaining his wealth if he's stripped off his fortune and contacts? 0.000000001 (almost like the rest of us).

Haven't seen that but wish I had, that's an awesome exercise.

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