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Comment by M_Grey | Hacker News Reader

Everyone wants to be successful, and no one wants to believe that it's not something they could control if they just knew the "secret". Add that to the fact that no one ever sold a self-help book entitled, "Getting Lucky", and it starts to make sense how we've arrived at this point.

Great link by the way.

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We've all done that exercise in school where the professor tells everyone ahead of time to bring a coin to class. Then he has everyone stand up and flip a coin. Everyone who flips tails sits down. Those remaining standing flip it again, those flipping tails sit down, repeat until there is one person standing.

Then interview that last person and ask her what her technique was, how could she possibly flip heads 6 times in a row? What hard work and practice did she do ahead of time to make her such a good coin flipper? What daily habits produced this proficiency? This is essentially what we do when we try to be successful simply by asking successful people what they did.

I was the winner of that in my class. They asked me how I won, and I said, "eh, it's nothing." 13 years ago, with no brain, head, arms, or legs, I beat out several million peers to fertilize The Egg. This is just the afterglow of that awesomeness.

A lot of those millions of peers actually play support roles so that the speedsters like you can make it to the egg (especially before any rival mates sperm makes it there).

Just thought I'd point that out given how there are some parallels to how many people play support roles within society while only a few make it to the pinnacle. Yet we still say that those at the pinnacle 'beat' all their peers.

Of course the person who chose to not flip their coin at all...didn't end up being the person to flip the most heads in a row.

So the truth lies somewhere between "it's entirely chance" and "it's entirely hard work/intelligence/participation".

Or, in my case in that school exercise: "I cheated." And so did the other finalist. But he was a known scoundrel, and I was the 'nice kid.' The last coin flip was the only one that was monitored. I won, and it was hailed and a just result. So, it's not all luck.

The problem is that no one is reading Steve Jobs' memoirs to find out that the secret to winning, is that you have to play... they want some secret to win the game.

>We've all done that exercise in school

Ha! I have not, but that's a great exercise. I'd be interested in hearing the "winner's" responses to the questions.

If we had all done that exercise in school, more people would be better at managing their money. This analogy only works if "success" or whatever is a random walk (like I believe picking stocks is).

Yea, totally relevant exercise when you want to explain to students the phenomenon of the "superstar mutual fund manager".

Yep. Logically speaking, what is the probability of billionaire regaining his wealth if he's stripped off his fortune and contacts? 0.000000001 (almost like the rest of us).

Haven't seen that but wish I had, that's an awesome exercise.

Well, not for nothing but it's a GREAT title for a self-help book :> Getting Lucky - Embracing the randomness of luck for a definite success.

Many self help books try to make you think about luck as setting yourself up to take advantage of opportunities that show up frequently around you, but you might not normally notice them, or be prepared to act on them.

I can't think of any specific citations, since it's such a general observation.

Richard Wiseman of 59 Seconds face actually has a book called "The Luck Factor".

One case study is a woman who wins lots of newspaper contests - the point being that she wins lots because she puts in for lots.

Another point is perspective. You fall and break your arm. You can either perceive it as bad luck, you broke your arm, or as good luck since it could have been your neck.

I think there are plenty of books available on getting lucky. :)

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