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zhdc1

1,776 karma · joined March 2, 2018

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zhdc1··on Making It Legal to Play Outside: “Reasonable Childhood Independence” Bills
Population density.

Post WW2 suburban communities had small roads (road width is a major factor in, i.e., how fast people feel safe driving), sidewalks, and - in general - were designed for a higher population density because this is what people wanted and were used to.

Over time, development optimised for housing and garage space with lower population densities. No one wants to go outside and walk or play if there’s no where to go.

zhdc1··on Making It Legal to Play Outside: “Reasonable Childhood Independence” Bills
It’s one thing to accomodate cars, it’s another for the entire landscape to optimize against them.

The average suburban family in the 1980s had a car. They also had well maintained sidewalks, civic organisations, and - in many cases - stores within walking or biking distance.

zhdc1··on Cashless society in Switzerland? People to vote on keeping cash forever
It's really not all that similar. The emphasis is very much on the local government, more so than really anywhere else in the world (that I know of). There are some states where local governments matter. There are more where power is concentrated at the level of the county or state government.

A (bad) way to think of it would be something along the lines of a New England townhall system on steroids, with several layers of federal/confederated associations above the local township (geminde).

Again, not a great comparison, but it's something that at least a portion of the US-centric users on here would know a little about.

zhdc1··on An astonishing regularity in student learning rate
There are two tables in the appendix (S1 & S2) where they break down each of the datasets and provide an overview of the associated course and grade level.
zhdc1··on What happens when babies are left to cry it out?
> It is very much possible to co-sleep and then gradually transition them to their own bed

A counter argument (trigger warning): https://www.reddit.com/r/nursing/comments/zls30p/cosleeping/

We co-slept with our second child, but only after taking a lot of precautions.

zhdc1··on How France Changed the Tides of the American Revolution (2018)
> It's a maxim that guerrilla wars succeed with a lot of external help and supply, if they succeed at all,

Not true. Show me where in "On Guerrilla Warfare" Zedong - an expert on the American and French Revolutions - claims that guerrilla warfare requires external support.

Guerrilla warfare requires the support of the population (pretty much all US IW joint doctrine highlights this).

Economic power facilitates guerrilla warfare, along with the transition to traditional warfare, but it isn't a requirement.

> Washington had to keep British costs high while not losing, he couldn't just sit.

The only thing Washington had to do was survive.

zhdc1··on Goodbye, data science
Checks my CV:

50k+ lines of R, 10k+ lines of Julia, 5k+ in Python, C, and who knows what else. Most of it for what is, essentially, data engineering work.

Where do researchers with social science degrees fall on this scale? Less money, less clout. The projects are certainly interesting though (which is why I do what I do).

zhdc1··on Goodbye, data science
Somewhat surprised that there's a separate job category for what sounds like large-scale data cleaning and aggregation work (which IMO is 90%+ of the effort involved with data science).

Anyway, I'm going to go back to my 5K+ lines of code for an upcoming conference submission - almost all of which involve data cleaning and aggregation - and think about how I could be making a 2x more than I am now.

Thanks Hacker News.

zhdc1··on Japanese Researchers Faked Data in ISS Simulation
Open code and data. It's de rigueur in a lot of the more prominent social science journals for obvious reasons.

I will say, however, that we need to be very clear about making a distinction between bad methods and intentional malfeasance. Academic research generally involved a small team of researchers, at best. The code and amount of overall effort involved for what the earlier poster described is extremely intense. For better or worse, code QC simply doesn't exist in most departments for largely financial reasons.

You can generally expect that - most - efforts fall short somewhere, simply because the odds of not making a mistake or two in a 15K+ code base with one or two non-professional programmers are almost nil.

The hope is that another team in the future will tackle a similar task and, in the process, obtain results that are or are not consistent with what were previously published. Thankfully, if the question is interesting or impactful enough, and climate research certainly is, the aggregate body of evidence will eventually force out unintentionally bad research.

Of course, open data and code requirements facilitate this.

zhdc1··on Mercedes-Benz to introduce acceleration subscription fee
I’m not that worried. Monthly subscriptions work mainly because they’re impulse buys.

The mental impact of paying three-four figures a year for a subscription is different from a 3.99 app store payment.

This will benefit some folks. I imagine that most people will simply pass, the same way they’ve been passing on all of the other non-Tesla car subscription/remote upgrade offers.

zhdc1··on Mercedes-Benz to introduce acceleration subscription fee
The flip side is that the manufacturer loses leverage once the warranty period of over.

Harder for BEVs where everything is electronically controlled. It’s a different story if there’s a physical motor and you can edit or bypass the ECU.

zhdc1··on Mercedes-Benz to introduce acceleration subscription fee
In the states, dealerships make more from financing kickbacks than from the actual sale.

One of the strategies I hear about online is working with the dealership to take out financing with the implicit understanding that you’ll wait to pay off the loan until after they’ve received their payout.

zhdc1··on Mercedes-Benz to introduce acceleration subscription fee
Assuming that initial assumptions about resale values and reliability hold out, leasing vs financing is essentially a wash. You’re either paying for the whole car with interest with equal payments over a period of time or you’re opting for lower payments with a final balloon payment.

Now, cash vs financing is a different story, but that depends on whether you have that much cash on hand and what you plan to do with it. Most people don’t have 35K available to buy a car outright.

I prefer cash over financing. Most buyers opt for the latter, and have been for decades.

zhdc1··on Mercedes-Benz to introduce acceleration subscription fee
It’s essentially been like that in the tuner scene for a while.

The only difference is that, instead of immediately opting for a chip or retune, you now have the option to pay a monthly fee to keep your warranty.

zhdc1··on Crypto dominoes fall in the wake of FTX's collapse
1. The Medallion Fund went insider-only 17+ years ago. The best explanation for their performance - assuming it's legitimate, since the fund itself isn't audited - is that they use an extreme amount of leverage to multiply "safe" returns. Of course, it's much more likely that the information being leaked to WSJ is a marketing ploy to keep investors in Renaissance's two publicly available funds, both of which greatly underperform the S&P 500

2. BRK is dead even with the S&P 500 over the last decade. This is despite the fact that BRK has access to cheap/nearly free leverage

There are better examples out there if you want to critique EMH.

The original point still stands. The vast, vast majority of professional investors (let alone retail investors) underperform the market. Almost everyone who promises safe alpha is full of it.

zhdc1··on Crypto dominoes fall in the wake of FTX's collapse
GNU Thaler for central-bank regulated digital currencies.
zhdc1··on Crypto dominoes fall in the wake of FTX's collapse
> They're human institutions

Anything that involves a person one both ends of a transaction chain inherently has one or more 'human institution' dependencies.

zhdc1··on Crypto dominoes fall in the wake of FTX's collapse
There are some legitimate use cases for decentralized ledgers and other "crypto-like" tech.

As far as I'm aware, none of those involve anything that looks remotely like financial speculation.

zhdc1··on Crypto dominoes fall in the wake of FTX's collapse
> If its not completely clear by now: no, these companies can't promise you 8% APY without essentially running a ponzi scheme. I'm sure even Madoff had some good years during bull runs

It's almost impossible to beat the market after fees. Anyone who promises to do so, consistently, is full of it. French (2008) and a whole body of literature before and after.

zhdc1··on Mom handcuffed, jailed for 8-year-old son walking half a mile
My son is expected to walk to and from school without parental support once he starts kindergarten.

We don't live in the states.

zhdc1··on EVs are the least reliable vehicle type: Consumer Reports
> My kindergarten teacher has a Model 3, so that's not really luxury at all.

Dual incomes make this a weak metric. The Model 3 also retails for the same price as the BMW 5 series and Mercedes-Benz E class.

zhdc1··on EVs are the least reliable vehicle type: Consumer Reports
Expectations are simply different once you step into the luxury segment.

Tesla, pre Model 3, had real issues that went beyond panel gaps. Modern Tesla is doing much better, but they're competing against established players who differentiate through great interiors and "the little details".

Large portions of this customer segment are willing to trade long term reliability for perceived build quality and overall luxury. Tesla's value proposition, which is great performance and long term reliability at the expense of panel gap size and cheap leather, simply doesn't fit their expectations.

zhdc1··on Ask HN: Anyone go through Montessori education until age 12 (end of grade 6)?
> Am curious what peoples experiences from Montessori transitioning to other education systems was like and how they perceived the school worked or didn't for then? Have some children decisions and looking for outside opinions! Thanks!

I went through something similar through the end of high school. I did, however, go through public school for elementary.

My experiences mirror a lot of what others on here have already written. The transition to back to traditional education (university) wasn't an issue.

If you are already motivated, going from a low to moderately more rigorous style of learning is easy.

The issue is going in the other direction, which is why so many first year university students fail.

zhdc1··on No, You Aren’t Going to Get Rich by Options Trading
> If the investemnt bank issuing the index fund goes bankrupt, you lose your money - see Lehman Brothers.

The actual assets are held by a separate custodian.

zhdc1··on Failing Intro Economics
Courses in almost all universities are evaluated. Those evaluations actually do matter.
zhdc1··on A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth
The author of the original study used VIIRS, which is essentially a large CCD sensor(s) on the Soumi-NPP weather satellite.

The overview for the actual data product is at: https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/missions-and-measurem...

There are a couple of different VNP46 products, but A2 is iirc usually the one used in academic research.

zhdc1··on A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth
They do, though. Many factories, railways, transportation hubs, ports, &c operate 24x7. Particularly in countries where manufacturing is the predominant industry.

You can also use nighttime light data to learn about levels and patterns of urban growth. Compare VIIRS imagery for India in 2013 with 2022.

The issue is whether there's a strong correlation between GDP and nighttime light data in all regions. There's a weak correlation (a lot has been published on this) and it's a good tool if you want to identify sharp, short term changes one way or the other. It's arguable, though, whether it's an appropriate proxy for a lot of different regions/countries with different economic models.

zhdc1··on A study of lights at night suggests dictators lie about economic growth
I do a reasonable amount of empirical work with VIIRS VNP46A* data (the remote sensing platform and data product(s) used for the nighttime light data analysis).

GDP estimates from nighttime light data are possible but often inaccurate. Before you even get into the larger issues, there are a lot of small things, such as cloud coverage, ground coverage changes, lunar illumination, &c... that have to be accounted for.

It's great when you're trying to track urban development. It's good when you need quick ground truth estimates (e.g., you're looking at an area impacted by war or lockdown and you want to get a rough guess of the actual impact), and it's ok when you are looking at a country with an economic model (manufacturing/export-led) where changes in nighttime light volumes can tell you something.

It's iffy if you're trying to compare a lot of different countries, with different economic models, across different time spans, and you don't have the time to accurately assess whether nighttime light data is a good proxy for GDP in each of the many regions/country <-> economic model combinations you're looking at.

zhdc1··on Ask HN: Do you regret being a generalist?
Excellent advice!
zhdc1··on Sudden disturbing moves for IT in large companies, mandated by CEOs
Second Proxmox. While our footprint is likely much smaller than many of the other folks on here, it's been a life saver for managing LXCs.
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