5,369 karma · joined March 23, 2010
In legal situations and troubleshooting alike, one is often interested not in the "general" causes of why things happen (e.g., an increase in load will contribute an increase in latency), but causes that explain specific cases (e.g., the increase in latency on this incident was because of an increase in file system latency at the backend.)
These concepts are quite interesting; one linked article discusses many variations and refinements in detail: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/causation-law/. I found these useful mental models to organize my thoughts when troubleshooting systems and doing root-cause analysis:
- But-for cause: We can say that A is the actual cause of B when the following holds: If not for A, not B. To avoid pathologies like "If not for big bang, this B wouldn't have happened", we have ...
- Proximal cause: In the causal chain of explanations: If not for A1, not A2; if not for A2, not A3, ..., the proximal cause of A(k) is the closest, i.e., A(k-1).
- Necessary element of a sufficient set (NESS criterion): Things get interesting here if we need a conjunction of many events to happen simultaneously for a desired effect. For simplicity, assume that events are boolean, and causal relationships can be defined using boolean formulae. Here, A is a cause of B in the NESS sense, when B = (A and C1) OR (C2 and C3) OR ... A here is "necessary" in the sufficient set {A, C1} for B to happen.
In legal situations, this blame assignment is critical as it helps identify who is actually responsible for some bad outcome.
Would you agree?
I doubt the author realises that the system must be resistant against a class of attacks (in this case, I believe a chosen plaintext attack). From reading the thread, and comparing it to the example in the book, it seems like the non-uniform patterns in the output highlight a possibility of a CPA.
And of course, the author wants a fully implemented + concrete attack instead of pointing to what's an obvious flaw to the crypto community.
https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2019/11/04/71-p...
I agree that the naive implementations are not.
It's easy to say "omit gender from the model", but the real issue here has to do with the _causal_ pathways between your input variables and the output variable.
Since ML mostly works by exploiting correlations between the input and output variables, omitting gender doesn't mean gender's influence is removed. You'll have to omit all the causal pathways from gender -> the output, effectively "d-separating" [1] gender from the output. Whether that's practical or not depends on how well we understand the data generating process.
Although, I must admit I don't understand the carry-trade dynamics that much. I hope someone else can throw some light on that!
- [1] http://mathworld.wolfram.com/WeierstrassApproximationTheorem...
- [2] http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Stone-WeierstrassTheorem.html
Neural Networks use a different "basis" (sigmoid, ReLU, etc.), but the underlying idea shares the same spirit.
EDIT: check out some examples to see for yourself: https://elixir.bootlin.com/linux/latest/ident/hlist_add_head
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/15832301/understanding-c...
https://ftp.cs.ucla.edu/pub/stat_ser/r409-corrected-reprint....
(I quote the word paradox, because they aren't really paradoxes once we have an understanding of what's going on.)
https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/89yp8g/r_t...
I wonder whether the fact that Robinhood doesn't internalise its trades (i.e., capitalise on the bid/ask spread by matching buyers/sellers from their own customer base) is the reason why market makers pay more to Robinhood?
I wonder if any of the aforementioned systems (Calvin/Spanner/YugaByte) that can opportunistically commit transactions and detect issues and roll back + retry all within the scope of the RPC so it can still conform to linearisability requirement?
Econofact has some background and history that I found quite interesting and well explained:
https://econofact.org/the-financial-and-economic-crisis-in-t...