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This is completely false - GPUs are not consumables, they are factors of production.

Models are technologies. Without the GPUs the technology is not accessible.

You sound like someone who thinks they have a strong understanding of economics when they don't.

Lol are people like you going to be enough to support the large revenues? Nope.

A firm that see's rising operating expenses but no not enough increase in revenue will start to cut back on spending on LLMs and become very frugal (e.g. rationing).

GPUs that have lives of..?

Now compare that with the life a rail road. Amusing.

Imagine comparing something that has a useful life of 100+ years vs a thing that is worn out, much less durable, and needs replacing much more often and can become obselete from innovation within its own product category.

Comical. China can continue innovating on GPUs and all this existing spend to stock up on compute is a waste. Again, comical. Moreover China has energy capacity that the US does not. Meaning all those GPU's that deliver less performance per watt? Yep going in the bin.

So yeah.. carry on telling me how this is going to yield some supreme advantage lmao.

Also a good point - railroads for sure brought a lot more optimism.

LLMs+Data centres on the other hand...

Lol a bit dramatic at the end. There will be a correction in stocks that were priced in for growth related to AI.

But what I see is the two big costs for America:

1) Less money being invested into risky AI projects in general, in both public (via cash flows from operations) and private markets 2) The large tech firms who participated in large capex spend related to AI projects won't be trusted with their cash balances - aka having to return more cash and therefore less money for reinvestment

All the hype and fanfare that draws in investment at al comes with a cost - you gotta deliver. People have an asymmetric relationship between gains and losses.

Also railways would always have alternative uses at that time - e.g. logistics in warfare.

What other uses do GPU's have that are critical...? lol

In addition to your points, this is why I always laugh when people do backward comparisons. What characteristics do they share in common? Very little.