2,072 karma · joined February 18, 2023
The price of things - heat pumps and alternatives - in different regions - even different regions within the US - varies by what people are prepared to pay not what they cost to produce.
The nordics have traditionally had cheap heat pumps whereas piped gas is only in the biggest cities and I’ve never seen bottled gas in the countryside. The competitor used to be cheap electricity and wood. Ground source heat pumps for rural install have been priced to compete with wood.
In the US the market could be shaped by regulation and taxation etc. It’s the choice of the US to have cheap fossil fuels and not embrace tech instead.
I recall reading similar tales of woe with other providers here on HN. I think the gradual dialling back of capability as capacity becomes strained as users pile on is part of the MO of all the big AI companies.
but then two months ago 4.6 started getting forgetful and making very dumb decisions and so on. Everyone started comparing notes and realising it wasn’t “just them”. And 4.7 isn’t much better and the last few weeks we keep having to battle the auto level of effort downgrade and so on. So much friction as you think “that was dumb” and have to go check the settings again and see there has been some silent downgrade.
We all miss the early days of 4.6, which just show you can have a good useful model. LLMs can be really powerful but in delivering it to the mass market Anthropic throttle and downgrade it to not useful.
My thinking is that soon deepseek reaches the more-than-good-enough 4.6+ level and everyone can get off the Claude pay-more-for-less trajectory. We don’t need much more than we’ve already had a glimpse of and now know is possible. We just need it in our control and provisioned not metered so we can depend upon it.
Much more recently I heard on QI about how medieval people, not knowing about migration, believed, through a lot of leaps, that it was ok to eat barnacle geese at lent. Worth investigating if you are curious :)
This is the kind of buzz I search out in my own programming :)
Have fun and keep challenged :)
I’m not a parallels kind of user but I can appreciate your craft and know how rewarding these odysseys can be :)
What was the biggest “aha” moment when you worked how things interlock or you needed to make both change an and b at the same time, as either on their own slowed it down? Etc. And what is the single biggest impacting design choice?
And if you’re objective, what could be done to other tools to make them competitive?
But the last few weeks Opus 4.6 seems to have got dumb again. Now it is making way more mistakes and forgetting useful things and recent context it used to manage.
I am guessing this is just Anthropic quietly dialling down the real effort as they either downsize or free up compute for someone or something else.
But I imagine even these rooms are cammed, and lip reading is a thing
https://gwern.net/doc/cs/2005-09-30-smith-whyihateframeworks...
And aside from algorithms, it usually comes down to avoiding memory allocations.
I have my go-to zero-alloc grpc and parquet and json and time libs etc and they make everything fast.
It’s mostly how idiomatic Java uses objects for everything that makes it slow overall.
But eventually after making a JVM app that keeps data in something like data frames etc and feels a long way from J2EE beans you can finally bump up against the limits that only c/c++/rust/etc can get you past.