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willmarch

346 karma · joined February 23, 2024

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willmarch··on An Alien Mind
I was about to write the exact same sentiment.

The desperation of AI denialists/skeptics/doomers on HN generally (and in this thread specifically) have reached toxic levels of delusion.

They are still stuck in the denial/anger/bargaining stages of the acceptance process.

People are clearly terrified and not ready for what is coming.

willmarch··on Claude's new system prompt doesn't want to reproduce song lyrics
Based on how humans grappled with these exact same questions (and still do) concerning other animals much closer to humans on the sentient gradient, it’s fair to assume we will have similar misunderstandings in regards to artificial intelligence (or artificial life, if you will) because of human hubris and ego blinding us to deeper truths.

It’s important to question our basic assumptions in the face of entirely new circumstances and new areas of exploration, such as the potential for emergent artificial consciousness.

You might have been called unhinged for caring about animal rights during the era of Descartes when public displays of animal vivisections were considered perfectly fine because animals have no “soul”, but today we would find such displays brutal and horrifying.

We don’t know what we don’t know, so it is important that someone is asking the hard or uncomfortable questions at the edge of our understanding to grope past our own biases even if it seems to be pointless to you right now.

We might just discover something wonderful, that our assumptions were wrong, paving the way to greater enlightenment.

willmarch··on Formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem
Why?
willmarch··on Why humanoid robots won't catch up to human workers any time soon
But can you imagine it going right?
willmarch··on Why humanoid robots won't catch up to human workers any time soon
Wouldn't they just send another robot to fix or replace it?
willmarch··on U.S. State Department pauses immigrant visa applications
This would only make sense if there are a finite number of possible jobs and that more jobs are never added as an economy grows.
willmarch··on The Hugging Face incident and the road ahead
Aren't humans black boxes? Aren't humans prediction algorithms?

How do we align humans?

willmarch··on Hacker News now has an active (official) X account
Disappointing to say the least.
willmarch··on Characterizing Agentic Flooding of Government Services
I think we might be using the term "stress" in different ways.

This paper makes a distinction between direct operational strain and harm created by governments' responses (like adding fees, procedural barriers, and other types of friction in the system). The second part is where my concern is, when bureaucracy is meant to suppress questionable claims it can also delay or deter legitimate benefits.

The paper says it doesn't/can't make definitive claims about AI's impact, but says the strain is moderate. The conclusion does not seem to suggest any severe operational risk to these agencies/systems. Only 9 of 84 potential cases involved benefits or social protection, and it says most cases are good-faith users.

So, I do question what in the paper would show that the burden is large enough to jeopardize benefits? The main finding seems to be that friction in the system may itself effectively deny legitimate access.

Response to your edit: the $186 billion is GAO's government-wide estimate across 64 different programs and not a fraud figure or addressing individual benefits. It contains administrative and document errors, indeterminate payments, and underpayments. And expecting integrity in a system doesn't prevent criticism in the form of asking whether added enforcement bureaucracies cause more harm to legitimate beneficiaries than it prevents in that system.

willmarch··on Characterizing Agentic Flooding of Government Services
I decided to read the report this is article is referring to. The report is estimating improper payments which is basically just missing paperwork and other types of payment errors. The report says explicitly that it is not measuring fraud rates.

So I dug a little deeper: roughly 94% of Medicare/Medicaid dollars and 89% of SNAP dollars passed audit reviews in 2025, but I can't find any national percentages for beneficiary fraud rates overall (which is sort of what we are talking about).

Provider fraud does appear to be the main driver of healthcare losses if we look at the enforcement evidence, but that does not mean every improper payment is abuse. It does seem the programs are audited quite extensively (unlike what some other comments in this thread are claiming).

willmarch··on Characterizing Agentic Flooding of Government Services
That can’t possibly be true since I’ve read audit reports on public benefits
willmarch··on Characterizing Agentic Flooding of Government Services
Is there any evidence that this is actually a real worry?

Don’t audits usually find that vast majority of benefits are valid and correctly applied?

willmarch··on I'm becoming AI-blind
Isn't thinking in images (visualizing non-verbally) also dealing entirely in symbols?
willmarch··on Felony charges for citizen deleting phone data at US Border
Because your situation can randomly and dramatically change for the worse and one day you might be the one in dire need through no fault of your own…
willmarch··on What sort of maths are LLMs good at?
Ask Edison about the light bulb
willmarch··on Scientific computing in the age of agentic AI
I think your criticisms are mostly fair but I think most tech people are aware of the potential downsides but ask themselves, "what is the alternative course?"

We stay the same? We accept some amount of harm, disease, and want as necessary to the human condition?

willmarch··on Scientific computing in the age of agentic AI
Why would being "100% safe and all diseases are solved and we have endless surplus" be abhorrent to you?
willmarch··on Claude Opus 5: Model Welfare
This line of reasoning heavily discounts, or ignores entirely, complex emergent properties that can arise from simple rules in large systems (the actions of an ant colony being a good example).
willmarch··on Opposing ICE Might Save the Country. It Could Also Ruin Your Life
http://archive.today/hIFIC
willmarch··on [dead]
For months, lone vibe coder Rafael Concepcion has obsessively built tools to counter the federal immigration crackdown—pivoting as he’s been outmatched. He’s also lost his job and become a target.
willmarch··on [dead]
Yeah, I don't know why this is being upvoted.
willmarch··on How to stop Claude from saying load-bearing
You don’t have to self censor to appease others
willmarch··on Building a real-time AI tutor for 5-year-olds
I think any reasonable person would come to the conclusion it meant for you to chill your hands in ice water.
willmarch··on Building a real-time AI tutor for 5-year-olds
It's fairly common to briefly cool your hands with cold water or in an ice bath before working on certain recipes.
willmarch··on Building a real-time AI tutor for 5-year-olds
"That will wildly hallucinate" feels wildly hyperbolic considering how fast models are improving in their abilities, especially with proper safeguards built into the model harness.
willmarch··on The CEO of Mullvad is the main financer of the Swedish Örebro party
The same thing as what?

Respectfully, in my opinion, you have not explained anything. You've just made a series of statements without qualifiers, which is not convincing. Are you a pure utilitarian or do you believe in principles that go beyond that? Do you believe governments have restraints on their powers towards persons under their care regardless of citizenship status?

The point of government is universally debatable and changes based on new knowledge or new principles/needs; governments are continually evolving and there are many different types of governments. If a government has jurisdiction over persons and those persons misbehave, that government is still responsible for those persons and does not get to discard them without violating human rights as they are understood today (and most constitutions and courts subscribe to the position I am describing).

You keep iterating your belief in how governments should work but you have not defended that belief in a convincing way (with either historical examples or justifying the seeming abuses other than saying "they can do this"). I believe governments should and/or do support universal human rights and defend human rights (as enlightenment thinkers believed).

What you're describing, if I understand correctly, is in violation of those universal principles of human dignity (some persons are lesser than others under the law, which is not true no matter how you try to justify it).

The whole reason we have international courts is countries can violate the rights of persons under their jurisdiction. Your claim that governments can do whatever they want to non-citizens, flies in the face of that idea. Are you against international courts that try to protect persons from the governments that have jurisdiction over them against abuses?

willmarch··on Will AI spark a scientific Renaissance – or a diffuse monoculture?
https://archive.is/IdIzP
willmarch··on A Significant Increase in Digital Labor Automation
The newest frontier models automate substantially more real freelance work than their predecessors.
willmarch··on The CEO of Mullvad is the main financer of the Swedish Örebro party
I'm not saying we should have unlimited immigration or open borders. Countries can and do have immigration rules. My problem is with using nationality as a stand-in for a person's personal/individual character, beliefs, or ability to live/assimilate in a society.

Just because there are differences in public attitudes between groups or nations does not mean you can look at one applicant and assume they personally believe whatever the average person in that culture believes.

Most immigrants are not a random sample of the country they come from, they may be educated, secular, religious minorities, political dissidents, LGBT themselves, liberal, etc.

If you're worried about a particular belief or ideology then make that the standard for the applying individual and do background checks, interviews, security screening, civic knowledge, etc, rather than a blanket country of origin ban.

It is inherently discriminatory to take group-level generalizations and turn them into blanket exclusions of individuals.

As for the "destination country becomes like the origin country", that is far too simplistic and reductive of a take. Selection effects, institutions, education, intermarriage, generational change, laws/culture of the host country, all matter in shaping behaviors of immigrants in society. Immigrants affect a society but the society also affects immigrants.

willmarch··on The CEO of Mullvad is the main financer of the Swedish Örebro party
I'm not saying that non-citizens have identical political rights to citizens or that temporary residence can never end.

What I'm saying is that persons legally present in a country should not be penalized as a group based on nationality, religion or any other broad cultural polling/averages rather than individual conduct and due process of the law.

Citizenship can allow for some distinctions but it does not make non-citizens mere guests whose rights can be revoked at will. A state can regulate immigration but it still has the moral/ethical and legal duties to avoid arbitrary and discriminatory treatment of all persons under its jurisdiction, especially toward people it has already admitted lawfully.

There should never be 'second class' persons under the law and rights should not be "subject to changing political winds" as you seem to be suggesting, because that would mean there are no such thing as universal human rights which would put all persons (citizen or otherwise) in danger of losing their rights at the whims of the state or the majority.

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