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wilkommen

189 karma · joined November 22, 2016

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wilkommen··on The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war
I think a linear battlefield is one in which there is a "front line", which was a given for prior wars but maybe not as much anymore. Future wars might see adversarial forces mixed among each other spatially more than in the past.
wilkommen··on The glass backbone: Why the Army's logistics will break in the next war
The arguments in this article seem very similar in spirit to the ones mad in "The Sling and the Stone" book by Thomas X. Hammes.
wilkommen··on OpenAI ‘in early talks to give 5% stake to US government’
This is just a way to keep the AI bubble going. The American people will not benefit from having a "stake" in AI companies. Doing so will serve only to expand the amount of capital available to AI companies for them to waste on a technology that will never live up to expectations. The US govt taking a "stake" in OpenAI and its competitors will only grant those organizations more power to further misallocate the nation's capital for their own enrichment. Instead of taking a stake, the US govt should use copyright and antitrust law to dismantle these companies and their backers in big tech, and shut this wasteful Ponzi scheme down, so that AI can find a role in the economy that suits its actual capabilities.
wilkommen··on Why jet engines aren't made in China
I agree that regulatory pressure is a market force (I wish more people understood this), but I disagree that capital intensive things that must be done right can only be done by big organizations - quite the opposite. If the regulatory environment is strong and effective, small organizations can thrive even in pharma and aviation. If an industry is comprised solely of huge organizations, then when one becomes corrupted (like Boeing has, see the 737 MAX debacle) it becomes impossible to terminate that organization. Organizations that are too big to fail are too big to be regulated.
wilkommen··on In San Francisco, even $180k tech salaries are no longer enough
The root cause of the dynamic you're highlighting here is wealth inequality. The more unequal the distribution of wealth in a society, the more concentrated wealth becomes geographically, because as wealth inequality grows, society begins to reorganize into a system which serves ever more lopsidedly to the needs of the wealth holders. The wealth holders, being few, and being social creatures like the rest of us, tend to congregate in fewer and fewer geographical areas. They have the money, so anyone who wants money must live near them to get some. So rents skyrocket in the geographical areas surrounding the wealth holders, which they ironically benefit from, as it creates a smaller amount of land that they need to buy in order to own all the economically significant land in the country, which only intensifies the cost-of-living crisis. Housing regulation cannot fix this, not only because housing regulators can become captured by the wealthy, but also because the root cause of the phenomenon is not addressable by housing policy.
wilkommen··on Feds deny Polestar authorization to sell cars in US from model year 2027
Couldn't they have just mandated that Polestar cars in the US must not be able to connect to the internet? That would pretty much negate any potential foreign threat related to "connected cars". Just make them... not connected.
wilkommen··on Is Meta destroying its engineering organization?
I have had the chance recently to meet my boss's boss and my boss's boss's boss at my current job and it is amazing how in this era of robber-baron capitalism we seem to be promoting exclusively the most unserious, irresponsible, and magical-thinking among us. The fish does seem to be rotting from the head. And it's not just some companies or institutions, it seems to be all of them. At least during the gilded age, the robber barons were serious people. I'd rather have Vanderbilt or Carnegie as my economic royalty than Mark Zuckerberg or Peter Thiel. Vanderbilt and Carnegie may have been evil, but at least they had their heads on straight.
wilkommen··on The tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, are hitting bottom
How is China reducing the consumption of transport fuels? Is that driven by changes in individuals' fuel consumption patterns or by a change on the industrial side?
wilkommen··on I'm Eric Ries, author of "The Lean Startup" and new book "Incorruptible" – AMA
Yes, it's much different in other countries. See https://substack.com/@doks/p-198191751
wilkommen··on I'm Eric Ries, author of "The Lean Startup" and new book "Incorruptible" – AMA
Good companies go bad because the American financial system and thus the companies that live within that system are geared for "shareholder returns" as the primary objective of existence for the corporation. If the objective of the corporation was simply to protect its continued existence, more akin to a nation-state or a club, then it would be possible to have a wider variety of corporations which each behave differently and behave more according to their own internal rules and principles instead of behaving according to the demands of external shareholders who only want money, even if it distorts or kills the company in the long run.
wilkommen··on Ask HN: Why hasn't there been a real competitor to Ticketmaster yet?
Yeah Pearl Jam did take a huge career hit trying to fight them, and that's admirable, but they shouldn't have had to do that. Why should artists carry the burden of having to sacrifice their careers to fight an illegal monopoly? That's the role of government. You may as well say that fans are to blame for going to ticketmaster-promoted concerts and buying tickets on ticketmaster because they were enabling ticketmaster. Both fans and artists are being harmed by the ticketmaster monopoly.
wilkommen··on Ask HN: Why hasn't there been a real competitor to Ticketmaster yet?
Could it be this podcast? https://www.organizedmoney.fm/p/emergency-pod-the-live-natio...
wilkommen··on Ask HN: Why hasn't there been a real competitor to Ticketmaster yet?
Ticketmaster uses their monopoly power to unfairly squeeze the venues and the artists too. They're using their monopoly power to squeeze all sides of the live music marketplace - fans, artists, venues, and promoters. So the bad guys are really Ticketmaster, not the artists.
wilkommen··on Private equity bought America's essential services
The stuff that old people need in their retirements to live is getting more expensive due to the types of shenanigans that PE firms are doing. So their pensions appear solvent now but when those old folks actually retire, their money won't go as far? Doesn't add up. I think the people who are really benefitting here are the usual suspects - the ultra rich, and the PE guys at the top doing this transfer really are evil.
wilkommen··on Google removes "Doki Doki Literature Club" from Google Play
None of these cases destroyed any of the defendants' monopoly status, so while there have been some "actions", there certainly haven't been any effective ones.
wilkommen··on Google removes "Doki Doki Literature Club" from Google Play
We need a cleansing forest fire of aggressive, effective antitrust enforcement. All we gotta do is enforce the laws that are already on the books, and do so in the spirit of the existing body of case law precedent.
wilkommen··on Sam Altman may control our future – can he be trusted?
Only anti-trust action against big tech to break their ad monopoly (to make journalism profitable again) and breaking up media conglomerates (to reduce concentration of power in the journalism industry) can save journalism from becoming just a mouthpiece for the powerful. These things can only happen through politics. We need a political solution to save journalism.
wilkommen··on SpaceX files to go public
I like that, I think your method is better than mine - it's simpler so it's harder to game. It punishes the right thing.
wilkommen··on SpaceX files to go public
I agree - I think there should be a rule that prevents anyone who buys a stock from selling it inside the following 2 years or so. And another rule that says every stock must pay a dividend that is a fixed percentage of the company's profit, modifiable only rarely and only by the board of directors. Then anyone buying stocks would have to price them more by the actual present-day dividends and strength of the company in the present day than by what someone else might buy the stock for tomorrow. It would curb speculation and reward responsible companies that are building strength for the long term.
wilkommen··on Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents
There's only so much land in the places where people want to live. You can't increase the housing supply enough to stop housing from being an asset in a society where wealth is sufficiently unequally distributed. By virtue of its unique scarcity, land (and therefore housing) will always be an asset, and in a society with increasing wealth inequality, the price of assets will always be going up.
wilkommen··on Austin’s surge of new housing construction drove down rents
I think that building more housing helps, but a lack of supply is not the only cause of high housing prices. Wealth inequality is also a huge driver, possibly the primary driver. If wealth is allocated in a society in a sufficiently lopsided way, then a small number of people can buy up literally all the assets in the society. Regular people are bidding against a small cadre of ultra-wealthy people who can't possibly spend all their money on consuption, so they use it to buy assets like other people's homes. In the aggregate, increasing the housing supply won't bring down housing prices if wealth inequality is also growing above a certain rate.
wilkommen··on What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)
I find it reassuring. More people are waking up from our collective trickle-down, "free market hypothesis" fever dream and are starting to understand that there's nothing natural or rational about the stock market - it's just an elaborate wealth allocation machine that showers wealth on those who already have wealth (and showers more wealth on you, the more you already have). The stock market is about as natural or rational as the most Communist land redistribution program, except it runs in the other direction. Money is political, and politics is about power! Too many people are still brainswashed by elite propaganda to think a machine designed to increase the power of the rich is somehow a mechanism as natural as the sun and wind.
wilkommen··on What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)
I think in the short to medium term, they will continue expanding the availability of credit and expanding the money supply when crashes happen in order to keep asset prices high. At some point there will be a breaking point, but I think 2009-style "Quantitative Easing" and 2020-style fiscal spending can and will happen again. So I'm still in, but this game won't last forever.
wilkommen··on What Drives Stock Market Returns? (2018)
Idk how people write posts like this anymore. Clearly the stock market isn't rational, and prices of stocks are not tied to financial fundamentals. Stocks are essentially a deflationary alternative currency that only people with disposable income can afford. The rich (and to a smaller extent, the middle class) take the currency which devalues every year (USD) and use it to buy the currency which increases in value every year (stocks and other digital assets), and this is part of the funnel that increases the wealth of the rich at the expense of the poor and middle class. People who think valuations of stocks are tied to fundamentals are smoking medical-grade copium. I too wish that the backbone of our financial system was a not a corrupt, rigged game that benefits a small and decreasing number of people every year, but it is.
wilkommen··on Who smeared Richard Feynman? (2014)
nominative
wilkommen··on The Great Unwind
The entire stock market basically functions as a funnel of wealth from the middle class to the rich right now. When OpenAI and Anthropic IPO, they'll be megacap stocks and 401ks and pension funds the world over will invest in them. Then insiders will cash out, and the AI bubble will collapse. USD will have transferred from the retirement accounts of middle-class people to the rich. This is how all stock market crashes work. This one is especially interesting because the middle class is already so squeezed - how many more times can they pull this trick off? Seems like it can't go on many more times.
wilkommen··on Ask HN: Junior getting lost
College-taught "best practices" and especially "software development patterns" can pretty much go straight into the trash bin when you start your real software development job. They're not inherently bad, they're just usually not relevant inside the context of whatever applications you end up working on after college. If you try to fit whatever you're doing at work into the patterns you learned in school, it will probably not be helpful. If you do find a chance to apply a pattern you learned in college to something you're doing at work, that's great, but don't try to force it when it's not fitting. It's more important to match the existing patterns inside the software project you're working on than to apply best practices and patterns you learned in school.
wilkommen··on How do I make $10k (What are you guys doing?)
Too many people try to find work in competitive fields where there are fewer jobs than applicants and spend years tearing their hair out trying to make it happen without success, and all for nothing. Go where you're wanted, especially if you're already broke. Find a job in construction, they'll hire anyone who can show up on time every day and can work hard, or is smart, and the pay isn't even bad. Join the union if you can, and figure your path out from there. Maybe you'll make it back to tech, maybe not, and maybe it's ok either way.
wilkommen··on Significant US farm losses persist, despite federal assistance
The FTC defines monopoly, the courts define monopoly when private litigants bring monopolization cases and via precedent, and Congress defines monopoly via lawmaking. Of course it's subjective, everything is subjective when it comes to the law. The US needs to do it if it wants to maintain its status as a world power instead of becoming a banana republic where the law is a joke.
wilkommen··on Significant US farm losses persist, despite federal assistance
Solution is to prosecute private monopolies out of existence, by enforcing the Robinson-Patman Act and the Sherman Act.
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