127 karma · joined October 14, 2024
Yet we keep praying at its altars. Delta are just playing the game. It might not be the nicest thing to do, but it is honest at least. All entrepreneurs are pounding their collective fists on their skulls to think of ways to extract as much value from the market as possible. Let's blame the game instead of the players.
As an example of an alternative analogy: think of how many bombs need to explode in your dreams before the "substrate" is "rippled". How big do the bombs need to be? How fast does the "matter" have to "move"? I think "reality" is more along those lines. If there is a substrate - and that's a big if - IMO it's more likely to be something pliable like "consciousness". Not in the least "disturbed" by anything moving in it.
I confess I might be showing signs of unlawful thought patterns. I will correct that, fellowniusmonk. Thanks for pointing that out.
I am in the "code is not an asset, it's a liability"-camp and our recently acquired ability to swiftly defecate metric tons of it is not something I am particularly thrilled about. In fact, I find "senior" engineers using LoC as a productivity metric highly suspect - at best. I thought we passed that phase a decade or two ago. Not saying you are one, but in the spirit of talking past each other I thought it prudent to put up a good straw man.
All in all to be completely honest I find it hard to parse your original point so I concur I wasn't engaging properly. To be fair you opened with "in terms of code output" so that's what triggered me I guess.
Also, congratulations on becoming a team. I sure hope you have the mental bandwidth to check all that output carefully. If so, doubly congrats, because you might be the smartest human that ever lived.
Being able to program in C is something I can also do, but it sure as heck does not make me proficient Rust developer if I cobble some shit from a LLM together and call it a day.
I can appreciate how "businesses" think this is a valuable, but - and this is often forgotten by salaried developers - as I am not a business owner I have neither the position nor the intention of doing any "business". I am in a position to do "engineering". Business is for someone else to worry about. Shipping "valuable features" is not something I care about. Shipping working and correct features is something I worry about. Perhaps modern developers should call themselves business analysts or something if they wish to stop engineering.
LLMs are souped up Stack Overflows and I can't believe my ears if I hear a fellow developer say someone on Stack Overflow ported some of their code to Rust on request and that this feature of SO now makes them a proficient Rust developer because they can vaguely follow the code and can now "ship" valuable features.
This is like being able to vaguely follow Kant's Critique of Pure Reason, which is something any amateur can do, compared to being able to engage with it academically and rigorously. I deeply worry about the competence of the next generation - and thus my own safety - if they believe superficial understanding is equivalent to deep mastery.
Edit: interesting side note: I am writing this as a dyed in the wool generalist. Now ain't that something? I don't care if expertise dies off professionally, because I never was an "expert" in something. I always like using whatever works and all systems more or less feel equal to me yet I can also tell that this approach is deeply flawed. In many important ways deep mastery really matters and I was hoping the rest of society would keep that up and now they are all becoming generalists who don't know shit and it worries me..
Please for the love of god tell me this is a joke.
I suspect we're becoming more realistic now about the nature of our civilization. There won't be any riding of laser-shooting cybernetic unicorns and we have to come to terms with that. There's adulting to do now. We have some climate issues and we have to deal with wealth inequality and finding and maintaining proper forms of government (worldwide). The laser-shooting unicorns have become the "maybe we can sort of survive as a species" and we need that. We always needed that, but we were too busy watching Terminator and playing GTA.
I'm not convinced it's all bad. Maybe some societal existential depression is called for and perhaps we'll awaken from our funk with some fresh ideas.
Yes, I am saying you should be cleaning the decks of the Titanic with all the care you can muster but without being obsessive or neurotic about it. Don't do it for the Titanic, don't do it for all the people who are about to die. Just do it for you.
Those are all things books will give and people as well and often better.
Can it be a tutor? Sure, if you squint. But "tutoring" you on some question you have is not the same as "learning a language".
Heck, Latin even has a Latin-only method: LLPSI. "Roma in Italia est", you'll figure it out quickly enough.
It's like they know somewhere deep inside that "mo tech" is not helping anyone.
My take is that basically anything can be made to work if you are properly motivated. Tech is - at best - a secondary concern.
On what? If I understand you correctly you learned through people and practice and community.
This is not academic. All signs are saying we are heading in the wrong direction[1] and more tech ain't going to solve shit. Literacy rates and numerical abilities are going down the drain faster than you can say "Claude". I suggest we really, really get our acts together and stop trusting tech to solve our non-tech problems.[2]
“It is actually hard to imagine that every third person you meet on the street has difficulties reading even simple things.” [3]
[1] https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2024/12/ad...
[2] https://archive.is/zCxBl (The Atlantic: the elite college students who can't read books)
[3] https://archive.is/4k96F#selection-1989.261-1989.387 (Financial Times: are we becoming a post-literate society?)
Then again, the only languages I actually learned - besides my mother tongue - to the point of being able to do things were English and Latin and both were very much acquired offline. I have plenty of experience with language learning apps and I'm not convinced tech is the solution or even part of the solution.
This is no way shape or form in any actual productive way similar to being skilled at Photoshop. There is absolutely no way these people can mask, crop, tweak color precisely, etc. There are hundreds of these sub-tasks. It's not just "making cool images". No amount of LLMing will make you skilled and no amount of delegation will make you able to ask these specific questions in a skillful way to the LLM.
There is a very real fundamental problem here. To be able to state the right questions you have to have a base of competence that ya'll are so happy about throwing into the wind. The next generation will not even know what a "mask" is, let alone ask an LLM for details. Education is dropping worldwide and these things are not going to help. They are going to accelerate this bullshit.
> liberating knowledge through accessability
Because the thing is, availability of knowledge never was the issue. The existence of ridiculous amounts of copyright free educational material and the hundreds of gigs of books on Project Gutenberg are testament to that.
Even in my youth (90s) there were plenty of books and easy to access resources to learn, say, calculus. Did I peruse them? Hell no. Did my friends? You bet your ass they were busy wasting time doing bullshit as well. Let's just be honest about this.
These problems are not technical and no amount of technology is going to solve them. If anything, it'll make things worse. Good education is everything, focus on that. Drop the AI bullshit, drop the tech bullshit. Read books, solve problems. Focus on good teachers.
That's the thing I'm trying to convey: it's in fact not encoding anything you'll recognize and if it is, it's certainly not "concepts" as you understand them. Not saying it cannot correlate text that includes what you call "high level concepts" or do what you imagine to be useful work in that general direction. Again not making claims it's not useful, just saying that it becomes kind of meh once you factor in all costs and not just the hypothetical imaginary future productivity gains. AKA building literal nuclear reactors to do something that basically amounts to filling in React templates or whatever BS needs doing.
If it was reasoning it could start with a small set of bootstrap data and infer/deduce the rest from experience. It cannot. We are not even close as in there is not even theory to get us there forget about the engineering. It's not a subtle issue. We need to throw literally all data we have at it to get it to acceptable levels. At some point you have to retrace some steps and think over some decisions, but I guess I'm a skeptic.
In short it's a correlation engine which, again, is very useful and will go ways to improve our lives somewhat - I hope - but I'm not holding my breath for anything more. A lot of correlation does not causation make. No reasoning can take place until you establish ontology, causality and the whole shebang.
To allocate capital on vast scales and make decisions on industry etc, sure, that's a level of intelligence quite beyond any one of us but this feels like cheating the definition of intelligence. It's not the quantity of it that matters, it's the quality. It's like flying I guess. A large bird and a small bird are both flying and the big bird is not doing "more" of it. A group of birds is doing something an individual is incapable of (forming a swarm), sure, but it's not an improvement on flying. It's just something else. That something else can be useful, but I don't particularly like applying that same move to "intelligence".
If the species was so goddamn intelligent it could solve unreasonable IQ tests and it cannot. If we want to solve something really, really hard we use Edward Witten not "the species". That's because there is no "species", there is only a bunch of individuals and if they all score bad, the aggregate will score bad as well. We just coast because a bunch of us are extraordinarily clever.
Thing is we just see that it's copy pasting stack overflow, but now in a fancy way so this is sounding like "I asked Google for a nearby restaurant and it found it in like 500ms, my C64 couldn't do that". It sounds impressive (and it is) because it sounds like "it learned about navigating in the real world and it can now solve everything related to that" but what it actually solved is "fancy lookup in a GIS database". It's useful, damn sure it is, but once the novelty wears off you start seeing it for what it is instead of what you imagine it is.
Edit: to drive the point home.
> claude just generated that
What you think happened is AI is "thinking" and building a ontology over which it reasoned and came to the logical conclusion that this script was the right output. What actually happened is your input correlates to this output according to the trillion examples it saw. There is no ontology. There is no reasoning. There is nothing. Of course this is still impressive and useful as hell, but the novelty will wear off in time. The limitations are obvious by this point.
> without sacrificing quality
Right..
> it's your responsibility to use that tool
Again, it's actually not. It's my responsibility to do my job, not to make my boss' - or his boss' - car nicer. I know that's what we all know will create "job security" but let's not conflate these things. My job is to do my end of the bargain. My boss' job is paying me for doing that. If he deems it necessary to force me to use AI bullshit, I will of course, but it is definitely not my responsibility to do so autonomously.
See that never was the purpose.. going bigger and faster, towards what exactly? Chaos? By the way we never managed to fully tackle manual software development by trained professionals and we now expect Shangri-La by throwing everything and the kitchen sink into giant inscrutable matrices. This time by amateurs as well. I'm sure this will all turn out very well and very, very productive.