vonneumannstan

Yeah I mean ChatGPT 5.4 Pro can't even pick my nose for me so it's obviously not AGI /s

Except you will never run out of challenges and my sense from Chollet has been that every challenge was hinted at being the final one where once beaten AGI would have been created and of course at the end of each one he comes out saying akshuallyyyy this isn't AGI and it wont be AGI until ARC Challenge+1 is beaten!

>As long as there is a gap between AI and human learning, we do not have AGI.

This is an absurd constraint. You could have a vastly superhuman AI that doesn't learn as efficiently as a human and it would not pass this definition while it simultaneously goes on to colonize the galaxy...

>Talking to the ARC folks tonight, it sounds like there will be an ARC-4,5,6,etc. I mean of course there will be.

Quintessential goal post moving...

It's getting pretty old now when Francois Chollet puts out a new ARC challenge, claims definitively that no system is going to crack it without being full blown AGI, the benchmark gets saturated in a few months, he claims the systems definitely aren't AGI then puts out a new challenge that no non AGI system can clear and a few months later.... etc. etc.

What was the increase in rent across all major cities in the US in 2021?

Ah yes sneaking in via extremely secure international airport checkpoints. Classic

So weird that railing against government overreach is now considered a leftist position when it was a fundamental right position for decades... You could not lick the boot harder if you tried.

This administration has taken grift and corruption to a level only seen in banana republics. I seriously don't know how you come back from this. GOP voters seem to be openly cheering it.

The number of Tech people moving from SF to Austin and back is going to have negligible influence on the average rent in the entire city.

Should be obvious that its tools like Claude Code. If you are a junior dev not experienced in delivering entire products but with good ideas you have incredible leverage now...

Lol most Kuwaitis including the royal family are Sunni and believe Iranian Shia's to be heretics. So no love lost there at all.

Maybe true but you probably expect a minimum of leaked information directly to the CCP if you accept that.

>Can an LLM give you an upfront estimate that a task will take multiple months?

>Can it decide intelligently what it would have to change if you said "do what you can to have it ready in half the time?"

Do you think ChatGPT 5.2 Pro can't estimate how long a task might take? Do you think that estimate would necessarily be worse than the estimates, which are notoriously poor, coming from human engineers?

But you can still answer my question. When an LLM can complete a task that takes a person N months or years, is it capable of being strategic?

All of which are peanuts compared to Apollo. Not to mention insane cost overruns and timeline failures on their projects like JWST or SLS for example. Many of those successful projects came out of JPL, where I mentioned the talent level is much higher.

All fun and games until an Intern deletes the original sheet or fatfingers critical information.

A bit hard for him to swing if he wants to position xAI as a key Defense contractor for AI and his company is full of Chinese Nationals...

Were they kneecapped by Anthropic blocking their distillation attempts?

Task Time horizons are improving exponentially with doubling times around 4 months per METR. At what timescale would you accept that they "can be strategic"? Theres little reason to think they wont be at multi week or month time horizons very soon. Do you need to be strategic to complete multi month tasks?

>What is that based on?

Reality? Outside of JPL the talent level at Nasa is frankly very poor. You really want to claim that the current version of Nasa could pull off the Apollo program today?

Well to be fair Nasa isn't nearly as good as it once was. The quality of engineer during the Apollo era was far better and more like what can be found at Spacex

I think these are totally different things. HFT firms and Hedge Funds are not "allowing more ideas to be funded". Finance in general can indeed be good but I think its much harder to argue for the net benefit of firms like Jane Street or Citadel.

$30B in sales is worth more than $30B in stock appreciation...

>Without circular investments and valuations what would Open AI be worth? 100B? 300B? Entirely on revenue alone it seems like 20B. Current valuation appears to be two orders of magnitude off.

They just passed $20B in revenue, you can't really expect a company with this much hype and traction to have a 1x multiple.. that's not to say a 35x multiple makes sense either.

I think the comment was a roundabout way of saying this is a clear market failure. There are more societally important things these people could be doing instead of shaving another ms off a transaction or finding minuscule option pricing inefficiencies. That the market is not correctly remunerating those options is the failure.

> For example, the tariff tantrums caused by trump proposing 100%+ china tariffs where he crashed the markets last spring, leading to a moderation in policy.

"Akshually traders are good bcuz they crash the market when the president does insane things" is not the own you think it is.

This is just a weird Trump talking point. This situation is unprecedented on many levels. The pentagon already had a signed contract with these stipulations and wanted to unilaterally renegotiate with Anthropic under threat of deeming them a foreign adversary and destroying their business if they didn't accept the DoD demands. It's totally absurd to turn this around on Anthropic and paint them as trying to determine US Military policy.

Now that they cut them off from distillation attacks I find that dubious. In any case its not relevant to what you said:

>Anthropic cutting off the Pentagon is saying in no uncertain terms that they support allowing the PRC access to frontier military technology but not the US.

So by ignoring your own argument I take it you don't support this easily debunked claim.

You are deliberately or accidentally confusing a lot of things here. This is not some anti-monopoly maneuver by the... DEPARTMENT OF WAR.

Incredibly dumb take considering Dario Amodei has been extremely hawkish on China and especially about selling them chips that may allow them to catch up to the US level of capabilities...

I'm sorry but the Pentagon already had a contract with Anthropic and is now threatening to use the supply chain risk law to essentially kill their entire company because they wanted to re-write the contract. They could easily just not sign the contract and move to a competitor. Its an incredibly disturbing and chilling move by the Pentagon...