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vm

1,370 karma · joined July 19, 2011

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vm··on The Mongol Khans of Medieval France
I still get weird looks when I rave about 8 hours of podcasts on the Mongols. Hard to appreciate without having heard it. Dan Carlin is exceptional.

Here’s the first episode on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/episode/5wuQ7JPneMRJTU9UJrJRNs?si=6...

And link to buy for those who prefer that over streaming https://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-wrath-of-...

vm··on Launch HN: Miyagi (YC W25) turns YouTube videos into online, interactive courses
For anyone else interested in Bloom's 2-sigma, here's the original paper (1984): https://web.mit.edu/5.95/readings/bloom-two-sigma.pdf

Blows my mind that 1:1 tutoring dwarfs the impact of other factors such as socioeconomic status, reinforcement, assigned homework, classroom morale, etc (at least according to the researchers).

Does anyone know if this thesis has been replicated? Or if these results hold in modern times (original study was 40 years ago)?

vm··on Germany says its warships were sabotaged
This analysis reminds me of this classic, albeit crude, joke from Silicon Valley…

https://youtu.be/Tx3wDTzqDTs?si=gybpX8Gha4nJ2Dve

vm··on Launch HN: Parsagon (YC W21) – AI for public affairs and government relations
Seeing your launch hn made me happy. I tested one of your products in 2021. It's cool to see you and Parsagon working through iterations and finding customer traction. Mad props!
vm··on School is Not Enough: Learning is a consequence of doing (2021)
The author hits on a powerful point that is getting missed in this HN discussion. That is: talented and driven students are limited by the US education system.

Some of those young people cultivate skill by getting practice during youth. Doing that while young builds a compounding machine of personal interest + confidence + progress.

I have never seen broad data to support this, so discussions revolve around anecdotes[1]. That's fine by me though because we have countless examples of the legends of their craft who fit that mold: bill gates, zuck, warren buffett, taylor swift, mozart, da vinci... the list is long.

No single system will work for every single student. But that isn't the point. The point is that the best of the best deserve to feed their interests at a young age, which the current US upbringing limits. How many more bill gates and zuck-level creators could the world have if more talented youths could cultivate their talents very early in life?

[1] Although not broad data, the thinking behind these works build on a similar point: Thiel Fellowship [https://thielfellowship.org/]; PG's essay How to Do Great Work [https://paulgraham.com/greatwork.html]

vm··on Dookie Demastered
Very limited editions, with sone items having just one edition. This won’t make much money.

Looks like a cool art project.

vm··on Zany ideas to slow polar melting are gathering momentum
https://archive.ph/xK7tV
vm··on SB-1047 will stifle open-source AI and decrease safety
Since it’s not mentioned in the blog:

>On February 7, 2024, Senator Scott Wiener introduced Senate Bill 1047 (SB-1047) – known as the Known as the Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Systems Act (the Act) – into the California State Legislature. Aiming to regulate the development and use of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) models, the Act mandates developers to make certain safety determinations before training AI models, comply with various safety requirements, and report AI safety incidents. It further establishes the Frontier Model Division within the Department of Technology for oversight of these AI models and introduces civil penalties for violations of the Act.

https://www.dlapiper.com/en/insights/publications/2024/02/ca...

vm··on Air Jordan Is Finally Deflating
The lack of data surprises me. It reads like the author has a vendetta against this brand.

They say that Air Jordans are “deflating” because auctions end at the low end of their estimated ranges, though still setting records for sneakers. All asset prices were inflated during zero-interest rate policy, and have fallen since then. What makes Air Jordans unique?

Showing sales data for Air Jordans would go further to making this point, and comparing that to Nike or sneaker sales overall, but they don’t offer that data or analysis.

Edit: This site says that Jordan show sales were $6.6B in 2023, up 30% annually. This Atlantic write up seems misguided, if that data is accurate https://runrepeat.com/jordan-shoes-statistics

vm··on Show HN: Tool to calculate how much milk is needed to make an amount of cheese
Try soaking store-bought paneer in warm water. I simmer it on low for 10 minutes while cooking the rest of the meal.

The paneer turns so soft and fluffy that it’s hard for me to distinguish from homemade.

vm··on Camera crushes Lidar, claims startup
This article doesn’t address when cameras are blocked, which is the obvious issue with camera-only self driving. Teslas have crashed when cameras were blinded by the sun. Now throw in snow, rain, dust… Is that solvable with lots of cameras and different types? …Does it need to be solved?

Maybe the bigger question - anyone know the status of low cost lidar? Dozens of startups and larger companies were working on it 10 years ago, yet Lidar still costs “thousands” according to the article

vm··on S.F. says incidents by Cruise, Waymo driverless taxis are ‘skyrocketing.’
I've seen this multiples times on Embarcadero between the Ferry Building and 280 ramp
vm··on Global Solar Power Investment Will Top $1B per Day This Year
This happens with many (all?) topics, not only solar. Keep it in mind as you read media...
vm··on Squad Solar City Car
Investors fund products that people want. These cars have two majors problems in the US: 1) expensive and 2) city parking is painful

There will be demand if a company solves those problems in a US city.

vm··on Boring Company Will Expand Las Vegas Tunnels to 65-Mile Network
These look like underground, single vehicle tunnels. It got me wondering why tunnels instead of building above ground. It looks like 1) tunnels are much less expensive in dense areas than above-ground roads, and 2) more tunnels can be added as needed by digging deeper (so the company says).

This is cool. I have no idea if they'll solve traffic jams or succeed as a business. There are many issues to solve (ventilation, safety exits, traffic from accidents and exit queuing, etc.). But, having lived in LA and seen how traffic alters livability of a region, I love that they're trying.

vm··on EPA approves California rules phasing out diesel trucks
That premise seems unlikely based on two facts from the article:

1. “to require truck manufacturers to sell an increasing number of zero-emission trucks over the next couple of decades”

This is a multi-decade effort for manufacturers, not freight companies

2. “eight other states plan to adopt California’s truck standards”

It’s a catalyst for other states to adopt this same standard. California is using its market power to influence national emission standards.

vm··on Full Stack Startups (2014)
Reminds me of this quote "There are only two ways to make money in business: One is to bundle; the other is unbundle." - Marc Andreessen / Jim Barksdale
vm··on Ask HN: Our users don't want to pay taxes
This reminds me of Thumbtack. Their customers, local service providers, are incentivized to move transactions off-platform to avoid paying commission fees (and taxes in many cases). However, those customers are willing to pay to connect to relevant leads, which seems to have worked out well for Thumbtack.
vm··on A simple system I’m using to stay in touch with hundreds of people
This is what makes Stories so powerful on Instagram, WhatsApp, FB, etc
vm··on Instant Domain Search
I'm a long time happy user. The site is fast, simple, and always seemed trustworthy in a market with seedy actors. You've helped me name multiple projects and companies - thank you!
vm··on Young people from Brazil's favelas set out to conquer digital world
12M+ people live in favelas. Many parts are safe.
vm··on Skillsoft Buys Codecademy for $525M
Congrats! I've watched your 10+ year journey from afar and been inspired by the impact you've had on this industry & and your persistence during the ups/downs. Excited for your and the great acquisition.
vm··on At SpaceX, I couldn't stop getting sexually harassed
I already see comments downplaying this issue. Take a moment to acknowledge the series of events: 1) multiple women felt harassment at at work, 2) they reported it to the company (which can be hard) 3) the issues did not get fixed.

I hear about this pattern across companies and industries. It's awful. Quit systematically downplaying it. It's real and needs fixing.

vm··on Launch HN: Inflow (YC S21) – Self-help app for people with ADHD
That implies that it is easy to find a therapist who will accept insurance, which is not at all the case for many people.

Finding therapists who accept insurance is such a large problem in so many US cities that there are entire startups working to fix that (one example: https://headway.co/). $200-300/session is a low estimate for people in those markets.

vm··on Renting a car will be a pain until at least 2022
Might be because of different utilization rates. Cars can be rented 7 days/week between biz (weekday) and consumer (weekend) travelers, and across all seasons of the year. I’m guessing bikes get rented on weekends (30% of days) during the summer and spring (50% of days).

Rough estimates of course, but only 15% utilization (30%*50%) would radically change daily rental prices. Doubt it’s the only reason, but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s factor

vm··on Launch HN: HomeBreeze (YC W21) – Easy booking of home repairs
We pay them to complete jobs rather than charging them money to be on the our service. We monetize through a marketplace take rate.
vm··on Launch HN: HomeBreeze (YC W21) – Easy booking of home repairs
Wow that's a high no-show rate! We're major repeat customers for home pros, which gets our jobs prioritized and ultimately gives our homeowner clients great service. Today we don't charge homeowners a premium like that but it's great to know you value the service so highly
vm··on Launch HN: HomeBreeze (YC W21) – Easy booking of home repairs
For tradespeople we're a high value, repeat client. Similar to a large landlord.
vm··on Launch HN: HomeBreeze (YC W21) – Easy booking of home repairs
Thanks! Reach out if you ever want to work on this or just geek out on the category - myhomebreeze at gmail
vm··on Launch HN: HomeBreeze (YC W21) – Easy booking of home repairs
Totally agree that we need to make top contractors happy. We're building a way for them to not have to deal with the "running a small business" tasks that can eat up a huge chunk of their time and that many (most?) don't enjoy. It frees them up to spend more time doing their trade and, hopefully, earn more.
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