7 karma · joined August 11, 2021
Your chances of serious illness are lower for now. ADE shows dose dependent acceleration, so by the 4th or 5th booster it may be a different story.
I’m also confident that people like me do not experience problems from covid. At least not any more problems than a flu. A 1/3000 risk of myocarditis is not something I will risk. That’s a long term scarring of heart tissue, similar to how my father died in his 30s from teenage medical treatment.
The difference in your statement is that covid is an acute condition rather than a chronic slow growing tumor. If covid took years to show symptoms it’d be a reasonable comparison, but it’s very silly to make otherwise.
If you wanted to see that data I’m sure you’d find it. Actuaries do this kind of work.
Any "excess" death calculation which doesn't account for this natural spike in death is not comprehensive whatsoever.
It's a naive calculation because it doesn't include projections we can accurately make from understanding the current state of the population. It treats the population characteristics as a black box and only uses an extrapolation of past death events as a projection. We can also accurately predict death from birth.