Why the Covid Vaccines Aren’t Dangerous
newyorker.com
newyorker.com
1. In comparing risks of adverse effects of drugs with those of covid vaccines the author is missing a big point. Namely, medications are given to help patients (i.e. already sick people) or prophylactically to people in serious risk of developing an illness. Covid vaccines have been given and continue to be given to perfectly healthy people who are in minimal risk. Now, other vaccines we do administer to healthy people, so a more proper comparison would be between other vaccines - but, while I don't have any data to quote, I believe you'll find significant higher risks of adverse effects from the covid vaccines than from previous vaccines.
2. > And the principles behind it [mRNA technology] are startlingly simple and elegant.
Now this is quite problematic the way I see it. First off, I have a medical degree and I find the technology incredibly complex. Secondly, the author uses "simplicity" as a crutch to support her argument further down that since mRNA translation happens outside the nucleus (where the DNA is) there is in no way any interaction between DNA and mRNA.
I'm not saying that the mRNA vaccines alter our DNA; I wouldn't know. I do know there are a couple of ways - at least - that mRNA can go back to DNA (retrotransposons for example). But, I also believe that when developing the technology, issues like this have been given serious thought by smarter and more knowledgeable people than me. That, however, doesn't take away the fact that the author is omitting quite a lot in order to present a nicer, simpler picture of reality. Well, that's quite close to lying in my book.
These two issues at least stood out for me. I'm not "anti-vaccine", I'm just "anti-bullshitting". And no, even if you have the best intentions in mind, it's still very much bullshit.
edit: minor layout edits
If someone is concerned about this they are either ignorant of how mRNA viruses such as SARS-COV-2 (and every "cold" and flu virus) reproduce or have to explain away how having a fixed amount of vaccine mRNA translation is bad, but having an unlimited amount of SARS-COV-2 translation (including those same spike proteins) is fine. This is a process that has happened literally billions, if not trillions, of times in every single HN readers body with other viruses not some exotic thing.
The assertion that the vaccines give you way less mRNA / cell death than the actual virus sounds like it should obviously be true, but I can't find any papers that measure it, and I keep encountering people for whom the vaccine appeared to actually give them COVID for a day or two. I've also known people who had COVID naturally and whose symptoms and duration was pretty much the same as those people reporting bad side effects from the vaccines, which I'd guess is somewhere between 25%-50% of people taking it, judging from my social circle, but it's hard to know exactly.
The best info I could get is that dosages were obtained by simply starting really low and then steadily increasing it until antibody titers were high "enough" and side effects were still considered tolerable. However the dosages of some brands are much higher than others. At that point information became proprietary and I couldn't go further. Still, given the wide range of severities of infections it's not totally clear why this process was expected to yield a drastically lower dose than all possible viral infections.
- Role of age, fitness and comorbidities in risk/benefit analysis - Lack of trust in institutions (suppression of alternative views; capture/corruption)
Another question is who New Yorker can reach, I won't be surprised that ~95% of their audience are already vaccinated. And remaining 5% holdouts are well-informed and would need way better arguments.
«[...] This all sounds quite risky. Does it mean that we should avoid prescription medicines entirely? Let’s look at the most common adverse-reaction offenders. Anti-seizure drugs, insulin, and blood-thinning medications—often used to prevent stroke—are at the top of the list; antibiotics account for more adverse effects than almost any other kind of drug, leading to approximately a hundred and fifty thousand E.R. visits annually; even acetaminophen turns out to be risky, causing fifty-six thousand E.R. visits, twenty-six hundred hospitalizations, nearly half of all liver failures, and over four hundred and fifty deaths each year. Nevertheless, I think that most of my vaccine-hesitant patients would agree that preventing strokes and seizures, treating diabetes, alleviating pain, and curing infections are extremely important, and that the benefits we derive from using these medications weigh favorably against their risks.»
A binary dilemma is expressed in the paragraph, while the actual topic is ternary. «Most of [his] vaccine-hesitant patients» would take insulin as a better option than just bearing diabetes, but not necessarily would take farmaceutical prophylaxis over a relatively high isolation (if they can afford it in practice - The New Yorker was not exactly born for a public of dwellers in low density areas).
It's partly the weakness of pro-vaccine articles like this one that fuels the phenomenon. People read it and say, is that the best counter-argument there is? Then perhaps my hesitation is correct indeed.
If the source of damages is similar with infection or vaccination, and if the vulnerability depended on one's specific body, if you may suffer a hit after the latter, imagine the blow you could get after the former.
About instead the article and its "reassurances to hesitants": its honest report of the risks of very common medicines will be an eye opener to those who thought of medicines as "innocuous candies not worth considerate approach".
If you read the underlying papers it seems to be just assumed that one is much less than the other because that's how vaccines normally work, and it'd be insane if it were not the case. But this is new technology, and these vaccines aren't acting like vaccines are meant to e.g. they don't seem to stop you catching it and getting sick, their effectiveness seems to last months rather than decades, and their side effects are much worse.
I have become quite suspicious about this over time because I keep encountering people who say the vaccine made them sick, and the symptoms align very closely with COVID symptoms. Recovery appears to be a little faster but perhaps not by much - the only person in my immediate social circle who actually definitely got COVID was only in bed for a day, and then it took several days to shake off the remnants of the cough. The vaccines don't give people a cough but "It laid me low for a day or two, felt so sick I had to stay in bed all day" is a very common side effect. This is what you'd expect if the vaccine was doing the same stuff as the virus itself but without filling the lungs with crap. And that's in turn what you'd expect given the way the mRNA vaccines actually work: they cause cells to act infected and the immune system then detects them as such. Whether vaccines cause more or less damage than a viral infection very much depends on the relative areas under the curves and the relative value of different kinds of cells that are exposed and destroyed, but, again, no way to actually get data into that form.
But then you weight it by incidence. Governments seem to have a bloody minded fanatical determination to make vaccine incidence 100% by any means possible. On the other hand, where I live, after a year and a half of this stuff, only ~10% of the population has tested positive. When the person I live with got sick, I was forced to self-isolate with them, and I never got sick even though delta is supposedly super infectious. The incidence of the virus is far less than the incidence of vaccines, so even if their impact is within a similar order of magnitude (i.e. much less but still comparable), it seems quite plausible that the vaccines end up making more people sick than the virus (for some value of "the virus" given that it mutates and "the vaccine" given the apparent need for repetitive boosters).
"holdout" and "well-informed" are mutually incompatible in this scenario.
You're making a couple assumptions here which don't hold true in practice. (1) That "skeptic" concerns are uniform. Those may be your important concerns, but they're not for others. (2) That you'll be able persuade "skeptics" by logically addressing their concerns. You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into.
For someone who has already had Covid and recovered, there is no benefit. Only risk.[1] But they are not allowed to make this calculation for themselves and instead are treated to constant social pressure campaigns like this piece.
[1]https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210608/No-point-vaccinat...
Vaccinated person 13x more likely than the naturally immune to catch delta
7x more likely to be symptomatic
More likely to be hospitalized
Take back you downvote and educate yourself.After all, this whole thing has happened quite quickly.
"The researchers also found that people who had SARS-CoV-2 previously and received one dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine were more highly protected against reinfection than those who once had the virus and were still unvaccinated."
The chance of an otherwise healthy COVID-19 convalescent person ending up hospitalized from reinfection appears to be almost immeasurably low. But the risk of a severe reaction to the vaccine is low but not immeasurable. And it could be worse for someone whose immune system is primed against the vaccine, but that's also not clear.
[1] Model-informed COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies by age and serostatus https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/371/6532/916.full...
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0806-vaccination-pr...
Reinfection was twice as likely among unvaccinated previously infected. The more recent data includes the effects of the delta variant. So, the risk of Covid is much higher and the risk of adverse effects are approximately zero for getting the vaccine.
Note that I am not commenting on vaccine prioritization and allocation, just the assertion of the post that vaccination has no benefit to previously infected people.
Where is your data for this?
What is the risk of a naturally immune person catching Covid, and being either a)symptomatic, b)hospitalized, or c)killed?
How does this risk compare to the risk of a serious adverse event or long-term consequence such as autoimmune disease from the vaccine in a healthy young man?
With respect to autoimmune disease, I think we are seeing that long covid is becoming a significant health concern among even healthy young people with only a mild response to Covid infection. Here is an example article:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-vaccines-do-their-work-focus...
Relevant quote: "Long Covid—a term referring to symptoms that linger for weeks or months beyond infection—affects between 10% and 30% of people who catch the virus, including those with mild or asymptomatic infections, according to experts. In some cases, symptoms persist for more than a year."
At any rate, I imagine none of this will persuade you, so I simply wish you good luck and hope you remain healthy. My strongest hope is that things can improve enough that we can all go back to arguing about linux user interface schemes.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-17497-6
[2] https://www.labmate-online.com/news/chromatography/1/breakin...
Where is your data that serious adverse effects are even possible beyond an absurdly tiny statistic?
And how does that compare to the risk of a break-through re-infection and the well documented long-term health issues people have developed with Covid?
Don't talk like the data is on your side when it isn't. You are being childish. Full stop.
[1] https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/vaccine-after-effects-more-co...
So if I am taking the paper you cite as gospel, I would say they are mild as described. I think perhaps you are the one who needs to do a closer reading.
And no, it cannot be that the side-effects you're worried about haven't happened yet. If they happened, they'd happen within weeks of the vaccination.
Look, the position that you don't think the risk-reward ratio is good enough for somebody who has recovered is pretty reasonable. But for some reason you're not satisfied with that, and are instead making factually incorrect statements both about the benefits and the risks. That makes it pretty hard to believe you're actually making that argument in good faith.
What evidence is there of this?
[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.29.21250653v...
That CDC study has a relatively small sample size (N=738) and uses data from a single state during a 2-month period. The confidence interval on the "2.34" odds ratio is large (95% CI = 1.58–3.47). Most importantly, a tremendous amount of literature contradicts those findings.
Nearly every large scale and long term serological study has demonstrated that immunity acquired through previous infection is at least equally effective as vaccination in preventing reinfection. I have yet to see any CDC publication that acknowledges or cites these reputable findings. Why is that?
- A previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an 84% lower risk of infection, with median protective effect observed 7 months following primary infection. This time period is the minimum probable effect because seroconversions were not included. This study shows that previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 induces effective immunity to future infections in most individuals. [1] (N=25,661)
- In conclusion, documented SARS-CoV-2 reinfections were exceedingly rare, with an incidence of 0.3 infections for every 1000 persons-week, and none were severe. Seroconversion after symptomatic or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection seems to be associated with a 10-fold reduction in risk of successive viral infection contamination, lasting at least 8 months. [2] (N=1,494)
- The study results suggest that reinfections are rare events and patients who have recovered from COVID-19 have a lower risk of reinfection. Natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 appears to confer a protective effect for at least a year, which is similar to the protection reported in recent vaccine studies. [3] (N=15,075)
- Reinfection is rare in the young and international population of Qatar. Natural infection appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection with an efficacy ~95% for at least seven months. [4] (N=192,967)
- The degree of protection (10-fold) associated with seropositivity appears to be comparable to that observed in the initial reports of the efficacy of mRNA vaccines in large clinical trials. [5] (N=3,257,478)
[0] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm
[1] SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33844963/
[2] Risk of Reinfection After Seroconversion to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): A Population-based Propensity-score Matched Cohort Study https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid...
[3] Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection 1 Year After Primary Infection in a Population in Lombardy, Italy https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...
[4] SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positivity protects against reinfection for at least seven months with 95% efficacy https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S258953702...
[5] Association of SARS-CoV-2 Seropositive Antibody Test With Risk of Future Infection https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/previous-...
This isn't something that can just be hand-waved way
"Giving a single shot of the vaccine to those who had been previously infected also appeared to boost their protection."
Detractors will say that there is no established level of antibodies that means "immunity."
Ironically, it is declining antibodies though (and no set threshold) that is being used to justify "booster" jabs around the world!
What, if anything, is the limiting principle to the controlling urge?
> As it turns out, though, mRNA technology isn’t especially new. Scientists have been developing it since the nineteen-nineties.
A lot of the anti-vaxxer claims about mRNA vaccines are incredulous, but this common approach to dismissing concerns about them is a bit disingenuous and not very convincing.
Yes, mRNA technology has been in development for decades. So what? We went from having 0 mRNA vaccines in use to injecting hundreds of millions of people around the world with them all at once.
The sales pitch: if enough people get vaccinated, we'll stop the spread of the virus and life can return to normal.
The reality: people fully vaccinated less than a year ago are becoming infected, with the data showing clearly in the case of Delta that vaccinated people have similar viral loads to unvaccinated people and can spread the virus to others too. Now we're being told that we'll have to have booster shots, perhaps as soon as every 5-6 months, something that we don't do for any other disease.
I'm fully vaccinated with Pfizer and not particularly concerned about the risk of undiscovered long-term side effects, but to pretend that what we're doing really isn't novel is far from convincing and I think arguments along these lines are having the opposite of the intended effect.
We don't know the long-term effects of corona or corona vaccines on the female reproductive system, especially eggs.
Considering that if eggs are attacked, that's the end of us, so we should learn more and fast.
More than likely Covid-19 viral vector vaccine's (Johnson and Johnson) or Live-attenuated vaccines will have the same long term side effects of any other vaccine in these categories.
IMO their argument works against them: Three decades of nothing, then two at once from different companies? What's the catch?
The only argument for not getting the vaccine would be if you thought you had a better than average chance of never encountering the live virus. If given a choice between a vax and the live virus, no sane person would choose the live virus.
So everything else here is BS. People don't want to get the vaccine because they're scared. I understand that. But the probability of them encountering the virus is so high that taking the vaccine is clearly orders of magnitude less risky than not doing so, since in both cases you almost certainly will end up with the spike protein in your system and the only decision you really have is whether that will be self-administered and self-limiting, or wild and replicating uncontrolledly.
No, it isn't.
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If we can’t convince this crowd to get fully vaccinated, we stand no chance of stopping this pandemic until it’s finished it’s natural and brutal course.
Yeah.
I expect that the "level of education" is part of the problem here. So many "i yam very smart, I thinks different" people who don't know how far out of their lane of competence they are now. Sadly the contrarian impulse leads them into traps that others have set.