viamiraia

as an example of this, pretend probability is a velocity: https://www.mathpages.com/home/kmath216/kmath216.htm

going beyond that page, think about beta distributions (and dirichlets). they are probability distributions about probabilities. try recentering the beta distribution between -1 and 1 first (representing c).

going even further, recall the bernoulli-binomial-beta connection. treat the recentered beta distribution's parameters as bernoulli trials. try placing them in a light cone. let me know what interesting things you find ;)

please note there's precedence https://www.mathpages.com/home/kmath216/kmath216.htm

the difference is i approach it through the lens of evidence, allowing more insights and connections.

also, bonus connections: kl divergence is the ln of the lorentz factor (log(gamma)), the Bhattacharyya coeeficient is 1/gamma, and Jeffreys divergence is velocity times rapidity!

> Without blockers, 60-90% of kids presenting with gender dysphoria desist in cross sex gender identity by adulthood. But when put on blockers, nearly 100% continue living as the cross sex gender.

You say "most research" shows this. From which source(s) do you draw these claims? If I recall correctly there were a lot of methodological issues with drawing this type of conclusion from those studies.

The Cass review has been widely rejected by reputable medical associations. In addition, reviews of the Cass review have found several flaws and instances of bias: https://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186...

Don't get me wrong, trans issues do need more study, but this is also an example of isolated demand for rigor. Why the undue focus and criticism of trans healthcare over treatment of other rare medical conditions, which also tend to lack RCTs?

In addition, trans healthcare in Sweden has historically been behind the US. Trans people were forcibly sterilized up until 2013, and trans healthcare underfunded. In Finland the sterilization was required until 2023!

The results for attempts are underpowered and they acknowledge this (note the p-values too), but not for ideation. From the discussion:

> We did not detect a difference in the odds of lifetime or past-year suicide attempts or attempts resulting in hospitalization. It is possible that we were underpowered to detect these differences given that suicide attempt items were less frequently endorsed than suicidal ideation items (Table 3). Given this study’s retrospective self-report survey design, we were unable to capture information regarding completed suicides, which may have also reduced the number of suicide attempts we were able to account for. Given that suicidal ideation alone is a known predictor of future suicide attempts and deaths from suicide, the current results warrant particular concern.

I addressed this in another comment, but for most trans people there is some component of both physical and social dysphoria. I have physical dysphoria to the extent that I had signs when I didn't even know what the word transgender meant. Untested of course but growing up feral on a desert island I believe I would still have physical dysphoria.

My opinion is that the root of the issue is a combination of misinformation, outrage porn, cognitive and attentional biases, scapegoating, and isolated demands of rigor.

As a trans woman who has talked with many other trans women, the majority, including me would prefer not having gone through male puberty at all. The benefits do not outweigh the gender dysphoria. We would love to go through puberty the exact same way as a cis woman, but it's not like we don't realize HRT and current methods have room for improvement.

The effects are only partially reversible, and only after tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in surgeries, hair removal, voice training, other treatments.

I understand it's a politically losing issue now, but I believe it's due to misinformation, outrage porn, and unfair application of rigor, from mostly the anti-trans side but even allies and trans folk themselves sometimes. To that end I hope this does not feel like an attack - let me know if you have any questions that you think my perspective would help.

Decoupling behavioral expectations from physical appearance would be great! But that would be a titanic task, and shouldn't fall solely onto trans people, whose mental health often depends on seeing oneself as and being seen as the gender they identify as.

In addition, there is an undercurrent here that suggests "changing your body is bad," or perhaps some appeal to nature. If you hold these ideas, I would like to ask why, and perhaps reexamine why you believe so.

I want to quickly address your last two coupled questions. Just loosening tight expectations for gender roles is not enough. For many of us there is a physical component. When puberty hit I started plucking out any facial hair, grew out my hair, lamented my deepening voice, and became extremely depressed. At that time I had no idea what the word transgender even meant.

Also, not saying you are asking this, but why do trans people have to be the ones always asked to break gender roles? Trans women are so often pressured to be feminine men instead, but our mental health depends on both seeing ourselves as women and being seen as women (depending on the individual). Passing, which is a difficult but reliable path to relieve dysphoria, requires some degree of conforming. And knowing lots of trans women, there are plenty that don't conform. I feel like trans people are held to an unfair standard here.

I am a trans woman. For me it's closer to wrong body, as I do get a lot of physical dysphoria, but I'm always careful when talking about gender. I like to split it into three components - gender identity, gender expression, and gender roles.

Currently, my gender identity and feminine expression feel (very) correct, but when I was repressing and thought I was a man, both my gender identity and masculine expression felt wrong.

Gendered interests are gender roles. On this topic there seems to be a double bind applied to trans people. Conforming to roles is viewed as bad (see other comments in this thread), but not conforming to them (such as keeping "male" interests) is viewed as evidence our identities are invalid. A lot of trans people do retain the interests they grew up with, but to me, at least, that's just inertia. We are encouraged or often coerced into interests stereotypically related to our birth sex. I felt heavily restricted and unable to explore feminine interests growing up, due to a combination of society, culture, family, and other relationships.

Feel free to ask more, I'm pretty comfortable talking about these things as long as I have the energy.