verteu

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4989512/#:~:text=co...

> In contrast, a matched group of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery patients who experienced significant metabolic adaptation 6 months after the surgery had no detectable metabolic adaptation after 1 year despite continued weight loss (17). It is intriguing to speculate that the lack of long-term metabolic adaptation following bariatric surgery may reflect a permanent resetting of the body weight set-point (18).

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/when-dieting-doesnt-work...

> 121 eligible trials with 21 942 patients were included and reported on 14 named diets and three control diets ... At 12 months the effects on weight reduction and improvements in cardiovascular risk factors largely disappear.

edit: My point was that, since mediocre SWEs make up a large proportion of the workforce, an LLM that performs at the level of "mediocre human" will still have massive implications for the labor force.

It excludes "minor traffic violations."

> Brame, Turner, Paternoster, and Bushway (2012) recently investigated the arrest experience of a national sample of American youth and found that 25–41% of those youth reported having been arrested or taken into custody for a nontraffic offense by age 23.

> Assuming the missing cases are missing at random, about 30% of black males have experienced at least one arrest by age 18 (vs. about 22% for white males); by age 23 about 49% of black males have been arrested (vs. about 38% for white males). Earlier research using the NLSY showed that the risk of arrest by age 23 was 30%

> During locomotion, the input of sensory neurons exhibited fluctuations due to the zigzag movement of the body’s head (Fig. 5c). The membrane potentials of each individual motor neuron also oscillated in response to the sensory input, especially the head motor neurons (Fig. 5d). The activation of muscle cells revealed traveling waves from the head to the tail (Supplementary Fig. 4), accompanied by alternating contractions and relaxations of dorsal and ventral muscle cells (Fig. 5e). These findings resemble observations in biological experiments

Unfortunately, "Stereotype Threat" is not one of the effects they attempted to replicate.

- https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7102/14/8/906

- https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4735240

But I wasn't able to find a detailed writeup of this particular experiment (It seems to be more of a TV show than a scientific study?)

> Halpern and Coren took a list of the people who had recently died and contacted their families, asking whether or not their relative had been right- or left-handed.

> Looking at 2,000 cases, they saw that the average age at death of the left-handers was about nine years younger than of the right-handers.

> On that basis, they concluded that left-handers died earlier.

> At first glance, that seems persuasive. What did the researchers do wrong?

> "Their mistake was that they only looked at the dead," Chris McManus explains.

> The point is that left-handers are more common now than they used to be, so - at least at the time the research was published - left-handers were on average younger than right-handers.

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23988352

The study had a control group, who also experienced pandemic & inflation.

An apples-to-apples comparison illustrates my point:

L10Y cumulative change in:

Bay Area rent: +46.0% [0]

Bay Area wages: +45.7% [1]

Vs:

Barcelona rent: +70% (if we believe TFA)

Spain wages: +30% [2]

Or:

Cumulative 2010-2020 change in:

Bay Area rent: +57% [0]

Bay Area wages: +34% [1]

which also looks bad (but not as bad as Barcelona L10Y). Indeed, there were lots of complaints about housing costs in SF then.

[0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUURA422SEHA [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06418840500000003 [2] https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150

Spanish wages grew only 2.7%/yr L10Y [1], and its nominal GDP/capita looks completely flat [2].

This explains why the city is affordable for international tourists but not locals. Regardless, a high "tourist tax" would probably be better for their economy than an outright ban.

[1] https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/Tabla.htm?t=59150

[2] Compare https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=spain+gdp+per+capita+10... vs https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=USA+gdp+per+capita+10+y...

1) The effects of tourism on housing prices: applying a difference-indifferences methodology to the Portuguese market. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJHMA-04...

> Following the liberalization [allowing more AirBNBs], for each one percentage point increase in the share of STR as a percentage of the housing stock, housing prices increased 27.4% and 16.1% in the Lisbon and Porto MSA municipalities most exposed to STR, respectively. These results represent a much higher impact than that estimated in previous studies (Franco and Santos, 2021)

2) The impact of Airbnb on residential property values and rents: Evidence from Portugal https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S01660...

> This article quantifies the impact of Airbnb’s short-term rentals on housing affordability in Portugal.

> We find that on average a 1pp increase in a municipality Airbnb share results in a 3.7% increase in house prices.

Some stats:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2024-economic-we...

> Eighty-two percent of adults had a credit card in 2023. They were nearly evenly split between the people who paid off their balances in each of the previous 12 months and people who carried balances from month to month at least once in the prior year. Just about one-quarter said they carried a balance most of the time during the prior 12 months.

> Fourteen percent of people used BNPL ["buy now, pay later", an alternative to credit cards] in the prior 12 months, up 2 percentage points from 2022.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2024-economic-we...

> Near the end of 2023, 72 percent of adults were at least doing okay financially, meaning they reported either "doing okay" financially (39 percent) or "living comfortably" (33 percent). The rest reported either "just getting by" (19 percent) or "finding it difficult to get by" (9 percent)... The 72 percent of adults doing at least okay financially was essentially unchanged from 2022 yet was down 6 percentage points from the recent high of 78 percent in 2021 (figure 1).

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2024-economic-we...

> Table 17. Largest emergency expense individuals could handle right now using only savings

> under $100 (18%)

> $100–$499 (14%)

> $500–$999 (10%)

> $1,000–$1,999 (10%)

> over $2,000 (48%)

(Which I find this hard to reconcile with the following from the same page:)

> In 2023, 54 percent of adults said they had set aside money for three months of expenses in an emergency savings or "rainy day" fund—unchanged from 2022 but down from a high of 59 percent of adults in 2021.

Yes, assuming they are sampled randomly. If they aren't, a bigger sample size won't help anyways: https://sample-size.net/confidence-interval-proportion/

I believe the law is violated when it's sufficiently profitable -- it just requires VP permission.

No public sources for this except Jedi Blue, the old anti-poaching case, etc.

(Just a guess, I don't know the process at Meta.)

The Panel's report is not based on "far fetched assumptions." It names the explicit acts that Israel is known to have committed (eg: mass starvation via blockade of food and shelter):

"based on a review of material presented by the Prosecutor, the Panel assesses that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu and Gallant formed a common plan, together with others, to jointly perpetrate the crime of using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare. The Panel has concluded that the acts through which this war crime was committed include a siege on the Gaza Strip and the closure of border crossings; arbitrary restrictions on entry and distribution of essential supplies; cutting off supplies of electricity and water, and severely restricting food, medicine and fuel supplies. This deprivation of objects indispensable to civilians’ survival took place in the context of attacks on facilities that produce food and clean water, attacks against civilians attempting to obtain relief supplies and attacks directed against humanitarian workers and convoys delivering relief supplies, despite the deconfliction and coordination by humanitarian agencies with Israel Defence Forces. These acts took place with full knowledge of the extent of Gazans’ reliance on Israel for essential supplies, and the adverse and inevitable consequences of such acts in terms of human suffering and deaths for the civilian population."

https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/2024-05/240520-p...

I see plenty of evidence, though no "smoking gun," mentioned on Wiki, including "transcripts of telephone interviews in which hospitals told prospective transplant recipients that they could obtain Falun Gong organs" [1].

> A good way to do that is to cite the conclusions of an "independent tribunal" that no one had heard of, whose only concerns are spreading the consensus about the evils of China and the Chinese, and who are mysteriously funded.

This seems inaccurate considering the statements from from Amnesty International, the U.N. Human Rights Council, etc.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilgour%E2%80%93Matas_report#R...

Sounds like a very positive result, especially since public education is widely regarded as a long-term investment that benefits society as a whole.