verteu

> Don't post generated comments or AI-edited comments. HN is for conversation between humans.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated

The graph is a lot less scary than the headline, even mentally adjusting for the 20% increase in Jan+Feb 2026: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yKXS!,f_auto,q_auto:...

"crime was actually worse when his dad was a cop" implies crime rate is going down

Because for-profit healthcare and higher ed have shown poor outcomes empirically?

No, plenty of indices use a "repeat-rent" methodology (comparing only prices changes across the same unit) to address the problem you describe.

They show Austin rents going down, eg Zillow's Observed Rent Index: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/

It's a pg comment explaining "middlebrow dismissal."

Why not look at the primary source evidence yourself?

> It has come to ISW’s attention that an unauthorized and unapproved edit to the interactive map of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was made on the night of November 15-16 EST

https://understandingwar.org/newsroom/statement-on-isw-mappi...

https://polymarket.com/event/arch-will-russia-capture-myrnoh...

> Settled as: Proposal: Yes

> This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between Vatutina Vulytsya and Puhachova Vulytsya located in Myrnohrad by November 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641...) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

https://oracle.uma.xyz/settled?project=Polymarket&transactio...

> if I could find a single instance of someone willing to vouch or share insight on having filled out a BLS survey, that'd cure a healthy chunk of skepticism

It comes from the Census bureau, a letter like this: https://old.reddit.com/r/frederickmd/comments/1p1j1my/did_an...

https://www.google.com/search?udm=2&q=%22current+population+...

They only reach ~100k unique households per year, so you'd need to survey a few hundred people to find a respondent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_Population_Survey#Meth...

> Note, I'm in a massive sceptical shit phase at the moment

How might one distinguish such "scepticism" from ignorance?

Because businesses and hedge funds pay for it, eg: https://usa.visa.com/partner-with-us/visa-consulting-analyti...

STRC is much riskier (I'm having trouble imagining any scenario where it does NOT default.)

This "debunks" nothing, it's merely a demand for more evidence.

What part is debunked? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Minab_school_airstrike

States can't impose tariffs: https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S10-C2-1...

> So what would you do if you ACTUALLY cared about the people and environment? Put high tariffs on dangerous process products

No, California can't do that. States cannot impose tariffs per the Constitution: https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artI-S10-C2-1...

They could push for more regulations at the federal level (and indeed, Californians do this quite often!)

> I've not seen any evidence of them editing archived pages

There is evidence of this in the article you're commenting on.

Preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.17.594640v1....

No, at FAANG I was coached to strictly evaluate based on individual merit, defined by some fixed rubric. We certainly would not penalize an applicant for attending a school with "too many" qualified graduates.

Good point. Would it be roughly accurate to say: "consider someone who's more depressed than 75% of the *study treated* population becoming completely average *among the study treated population*"?

It's a standardized mean difference, which I believe can roughly be interpreted as: "treated groups had 0.67 stddev lower depression score than control groups."

That's a pretty substantial improvement - consider someone who's more depressed than 75% of the population becoming completely average. (Because the 75th percentile is about 0.67stddev above the median.)

Indeed - some relevant charts: https://nitter.net/BasilHalperin/status/1908550146889257180#...

https://x.com/BasilHalperin/status/1908550146889257180

> The last thing any big oil companies need is more crude supply into the market lowering the benchmark price even lower, especially particularly expensive (to extract) Venezuelan crude

Check Chevron's stock on Monday to see if you're right. My prediction: It will be significantly up, showing that the action benefited them.

If they're more responsible than Waymo, why are they crashing more?

Interesting that his performance was essentially identical to the S&P over the past 30 years (Sortino 0.72 vs 0.69): https://testfol.io/?s=jJ4P0GrZxLi

I wonder how much is due to the market becoming more efficient, vs Berkshire's size / market impact?

CA Prop 209 is a good natural experiment: https://reappropriate.co/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Total-UC...

No, they're generally referring to the set of countries depicted in these maps [1], for the reasons described in the article [2].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world#/media/File:West...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world

FWIW, one source is https://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/tabl...

Thanks for the context, I didn't realize the supervisor sits in the passenger seat in Austin. They do have a kill switch / emergency brake, though:

> For months, Tesla’s robotaxis in Austin and San Francisco have included safety monitors with access to a kill switch in case of emergency — a fallback that Waymo currently doesn’t need for its commercial robotaxi service. The safety monitor sits in the passenger seat in Austin and in the driver seat in San Francisco

It's pretty bad given there's a Tesla employee behind the wheel supervising.

Fun post. I'd be interested to know: How many consecutive Truth Booths (or: how many consecutive Match Ups) are needed to narrow down the 10! possibilities to a single one?

Discussing "events" (ie, Truth Booth or Match Up) together muddles the analysis a bit.

I agree with Medea above that a Truth Booth should give at most 1 bit of information.

It's unlikely that would cause a 10x increase, especially since the directions are presumably aligned to roads of non-vanishing length.

Sounds similar to USA's existing immigrant investor visas (eg: EB 5):

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrat...