HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

ultimatefan1

53 karma · joined January 4, 2016

submissionscomments
ultimatefan1··on Ten advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science
one of the early premises of how ai takeoff would go was that a system that could solve open problems in advanced mathematics would also discover novel advances in math and computer science that directly unlock drastically better software performance. we are seeing frontier level math breakthroughs (ie performance that would put it in the top 100 or 1000 mathematicians in the world if it were a human, meaning top .00001% or 800/8B). we are also seeing incredible advances in software performance. open ai announced like 15% improvement by fixing gpu kernel issues. these are clearly linked in the sense of scaling laws and generalization of intelligence: a huge model gets capabilities in both math and software engineering that isn't possible at smaller scales.

but it seems less likely to me than before that the types of math/science discoveries will explicitly unlock better software performance. in some sense this fits our intuitions. when top tech companies use math PhD type employees, they have them stop doing pure math research and instead focus on software engineering. these people are often very good at software engineering but not due to recent discoveries in academic mathematics, it's due to their general intelligence. to me, this is evidence that the models are getting better but does not make me think we are on the cusp of a foom style fast takeoff enabled by revolutions in frontier math (i also posted this on twitter @mlipman13)

ultimatefan1··on Actegories
this has a real "a monad is a monoid in the category of endofunctors" energy to it
ultimatefan1··on All of human cooking compressed into 2 megabytes
My friend did a similar thing https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1077776268/recipe-redes...
ultimatefan1··on A Journey Through Infertility
Really beautiful and as others said really heartbreaking how hard it’s been for her. One thing I’ve thought a lot about as I’ve gone through a similar experience is that a generation ago infertility still happened a lot and was a thing many couples just had to accept. I am wishing all the best for the author
ultimatefan1··on Most of the US economy is in a recession
“Real” means adjusted for inflation
ultimatefan1··on Nanochat
No seagull?
ultimatefan1··on Tell HN: Anthropic expires paid credits after a year
video game companies definitely have to deal with these same kinds of questions.

from https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/accounting-for-saas-a... :

Accounting for potions: This is fairly easy. If you sell someone a potion, revenue is recognized when they drink the potion. Or use their speed boost. Or skip the progress gate to get to the next dungeon. The fiction doesn’t matter. Reality matters, and the economic reality of the situation is that performance has happened after the temporary thing you’ve promised is delivered. (Technically speaking you do have to recognize the revenue over time if your potions last long enough to be close to monthly SaaS contracts, but practically speaking most are over with in a day and most accounting systems lose precision below that.)

Accounting for swords: If you trade gems for swords then you can ratably recognize the purchase price of the gems when you satisfy your obligation by giving the player a new sword.

Hah, just kidding. That would be way too easy.

You actually need to recognize the prorated cost of the gems exchanged for the sword over the economically useful life of the imaginary sword. “Economically useful life” is a concept with a lot of prior art on it in accounting. You are obligated to, and accountants can point to substantial work on, estimating the economically useful life of factories, cruise ships, CNC machines, bunk beds, Bitcoin miners, dairy cattle, and almost everything else that depreciates.

But there is not a huge amount of prior art on imaginary swords. So you get to pick one of two methods..

The first, by far less commonly used, is to put your head together with very expensive accounting professionals and rigorously answer the question “What events in reality, in the universe we actually live in, would cause the owner of this imaginary sword to believe it had no or de minimis future value to them?” And perhaps that conversation would involve questions like power creep, game balance changes, declining player preference for swords now that you’re offering a sale on imaginary nuclear weapons, etc.

Nobody has time for that conversation or the truly gargantuan amount of implementation engineering required to enforce the decision it comes up with, so they largely use door #2: the economically useful life of a virtual good is by nature upper bounded by the economically useful life of a player’s relationship with our game, so use that instead.

You are required to use your existing data to make a reasonable estimate of how long either the particular player or, failing that, the hypothetical spherical frictionless average player will continue to play the game after the purchase. Then you recognize the price of the sword ratably over that time period.

This causes many virtual goods companies to have bookings (player purchases) diverge sharply from revenue. That depresses the value of their companies, in the real world, and those companies then spend substantial amounts of professional labor taking their frustration out on imaginary swords.

ultimatefan1··on How Doordash got their first 1000 customers
I’m in Chicago and would love that service!
ultimatefan1··on Tech layoffs more than double in Bay Area
whenever you ask a smart person in tech what the hardest industries are to "disrupt" these days they always say healthcare and education. healthcare has so much money and inertia in it that nothing will happen fast. but education, otoh, is ripe. all students have access to computers and phones, which was never the case. it won't be changed by a single good idea, but if you believe in Steve Case's Third Wave idea, then education is the place to look
ultimatefan1··on G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft
I see it as GM (or whoever) makes the car. Lyft (or uber, google, whoever) makes the software to call up the car, which includes a huge amount of data analysis for routing, so they are more than just a middle man. Also, GM just became a major investor and board member in Lyft, so both parties are clearly interested in partnering: http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-lyft-gm-...