tysonzni

>We use high-quality linked Social Security and Medicare records to estimate life tables for the older U.S. population over the full range of birth regions. In 2000–2009, the foreign-born had a 2.4-year advantage in life expectancy at age 65 relative to the U.S.-born, with Asian-born subgroups displaying exceptionally high longevity. Foreign-born individuals who migrated more recently had lower mortality compared with those who migrated earlier. Nonetheless, we also find remarkable similarities in life expectancy among many foreign-born subgroups that were born in very different geographic and socioeconomic contexts (e.g., Central America, western/eastern Europe, and Africa).

Study: https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/s...

> Approximately half of the employees (503) were interested, particularly those who had less education and tenure, their own rooms, and faced longer commutes. Of these, 249 were qualified to take part in the experiment by virtue of having at least six months’ tenure, broadband access, and a private room at home in which they could work. After a lottery draw, those em- ployees with even-numbered birthdays were selected to work from home, and those with odd-numbered birthdates stayed in the office to act as the control group.

I've noticed that in large organizations certain information are held by a small number of people who may be reluctant to share them for political reasons. Another challenge with internal prediction markets is the possibility that knowing the "probability" of an project-related outcome reduces morale and hence creates a self-fulfilling prophecy that further reduces the chance of success. Appreciate your insights.

Additionally, I think investigators tend to act more carefully in a high profile case than in a typical case, so I expect that they possess some additional conclusive evidence.

Here's his essay where he expands on it: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiel-competition-is-for-...

The lead came from the police searching through DNA databases which identified some set of relatives who were suspicious, but they later obtained the DNA from the suspect himself which was an exact match to what was gathered from crime scenes.

This is always a concern with any investigation or analytical work. I'm curious to find out which other suspects they looked at after the initial DNA lead, and how they went about eliminating other suspects. But keep in mind the public isn't yet privy to all the physical evidence that were collected at the crime scenes.

edit: In addition to the physical evidence gathered from suspect's house that could be linked to the crime scenes. This isn't public information yet.

It's baffling to me that the overbooking problem is solved at the airport, minutes before take-off.

Think about how excess seats usually come about: a passenger doesn't show up because of some unforeseen circumstance which occurs last minute. By the time that passenger decides they can't make the flight, it might be too late to generate sufficient demand for that ticket. Potential buyers of that ticket have to be packed and ready to go. And where do we find those people? At the airport.

The population of people who are super flexible in both destination and time is probably not sizable enough to generate enough volume in a secondary market.

Presumably the reason why US airlines overbook is to maximize yield since almost always some passengers don't show up. Any reason why non-US airlines don't do the same? I suspect it has to do with ticket regulations but would like to learn more.

If everyone is passive, price discovery would be harder but not impossible. But there will always be traders who think they can gain an edge by going active, right?

Why make this assumption? I'm hoping to see more justification as to why the main effect should be assumed to be exactly 2x the interaction effect.

Edit: In comments he wrote - I think it makes sense, where possible, to code variables in a regression so that the larger comparisons appear as main effects and the smaller comparisons appear as interactions.

I think for most people this actually ends up producing better long term returns.

Contrast that to Wealthfront, Betterment, or Acorn - they're all built on the "buy and hold" philosophy. They use technology to automate allocation, tax reduction and rebalancing, while investing solely in index funds. How these two trends play out is fascinating to watch.

When the market gets more volatile or if there’s a sharp downturn, that would become a big issue. Not sure they had to address this yet because since 2014 their founding year the market had been on a smooth, upward trajectory. A recession however is already around the corner.

I do think that Wikipedia is quite reliable, so I don't have a problem with that, but I think the article doesn't quite support your point.

Compared to alternatives, Wikipedia is perhaps the best at combining high reliability, "freshness" and breadth of content. What's your benchmark for measuring reliability? I can't think of many others.

Yeah agreed. Perhaps products (chatbots, voice?) that simply tell people what to do can partially solve for this.

In many cases however, people have self-interests based on vastly different values (think relationship or hobby), and their instincts are good enough at approximating what they want. And while personal finance is tricky for many folks, not every decision is like personal finance which has a easily defined value function like calculating compound interest or choosing discounts. So my view is people are usually right!