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tvchurch

137 karma · joined March 9, 2007

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tvchurch··on The Focus You Fear
"I’ve had a running list for most of the past year—things I want to get better at, projects I want to finish, skills I want to develop. At various points there have been four or five items on it, all getting some portion of my week. I’d rotate between them, make a little progress on each, and feel like I was being productive."

"Then I think about the stretches where I did produce something I was proud of, and they all have the same shape. I’d gotten slightly obsessed with one thing. Not in a dramatic way—I just stopped splitting my attention."

Honestly, a great reminder of how to get things done when you have seven work priorities...

tvchurch··on Is Health Insurance Even Worth It Anymore?
Author here.

DPC is terrific if you have an option near you! Paired with catastrophic insurance, it's a great bet for relatively healthy people.

The DPC Alliance map is well worth a visit: https://mapper.dpcfrontier.com/

And I wrote about DPC a while back: https://church.substack.com/p/direct-primary-care

tvchurch··on Is Health Insurance Even Worth It Anymore?
Author here. I'm definitely not advocating going without health insurance. Just running simple numbers to get some perspective.

I'd like to see health insurance act like insurance again though. Right now it covers absolutely everything, meaning it's more like pre-payment for routine care + insurance.

Insurance isn't for routine, predictable, or low-cost expenses. But we've mandated that our health insurance cover all of those things.

The comparison to car insurance is overused, but it's a good one. Catastrophic coverage + dedicated savings with lower premiums looks more attractive to a lot more people.

tvchurch··on Thank HN: The puzzle game I posted here 6 weeks ago got licensed by The Atlantic
Congrats, man. Love this game.

Now get the Word of the Day ported over too!

tvchurch··on The Monospace Web
This is why the internet exists.

Incredible catharsis. Love it.

tvchurch··on US public debt projected to reach 181% of economic activity in 30 years
Always hard to put these number in perspective.

Here's the one that worries me: Interest payments on the debt are projected to grow to 6.7 percent of GDP in thirty years (right now they're 1.9 percent and Social Security outlays are 4.9 percent).

Deficits are projected to be 10 percent of GDP then, meaning 2/3rds of our borrowing will be done to pay off existing borrowing. That's not good.

tvchurch··on Show HN: ArcadeJack: Daily Math Practice for grades 1 to 4
1) The text box for answers should already be clicked and ready to type in. So when you submit your answer, you don't need to click again to get the next question.

2) To move things along, the correct / incorrect response should pop up on the next page with the next question, text box ready to start typing.

3) Choosing difficulty would be helpful. Multiplication thrown in with addition would be discouraging for a kid who only knows addition.

4) If you'd like to stop, clicking Home at the top should pause the timer. I completed a few questions then wanted to go to home and click around. But the timer kept going, which if I didn't notice would run out and then subtract a kid's progress.

5) In the about section, it'd probably be helpful to explain to non-tech savvy parents that this browser keeps track of your progress with cookies. As long as you're signed in on the same web browser on the same account/computer, your progress will be saved.

Definitely keep going!

tvchurch··on Thoughts on San Francisco
"For such a liberal city?"
tvchurch··on Thoughts on San Francisco
"The Housing: San Francisco has deeply conservative tendencies for such a liberal city. Its housing supply isn't growing fast enough to keep up with rising demand."

Restrictive housing is more of a liberal phenomenon than a conservative one, wouldn't you say?

tvchurch··on 64% of all federal arrests last year were of non-U.S. citizens
Here's Alex Nowrasteh on this topic: https://twitter.com/AlexNowrasteh/status/1164862732102963200

1.4% of all arrests in 2014 were federal.

Most law enforcement is by local or state governments.

This headline makes it seem like 64% of all arrests were for non-citizens. Not at all the case.

tvchurch··on Post-surgical deaths in Scotland drop by a third, attributed to a checklist
This makes me think of Charlie Munger's insistence on checklists: https://www.amazon.com/Poor-Charlies-Almanack-Charles-Expand...
tvchurch··on NYC Renters Paid Extra $616M Thanks to Airbnb, Study Says
How much extra do NYC renters pay from not building enough new supply?

Or from rent control stifling the development of new supply?

tvchurch··on 'Anti-authority' tech rebels take on ISPs, connect NYC with cheap Wi-Fi
I've got to know more about this. Who set it up? Local start up? Bored engineers?
tvchurch··on U.S. Nuclear Comeback Stalls as Two Reactors Are Abandoned
While the full article is gated at WSJ, John Cochrane and David Henderson write about the lack of quantifying economic costs when it comes to addressing climate change. Their last paragraph:

Climate policy advocates’ apocalyptic vision demands serious analysis, and mushy thinking undermines their case. If carbon emissions pose the greatest threat to humanity, it follows that the costs of nuclear power—waste disposal and the occasional meltdown—might be bearable. It follows that the costs of genetically modified foods and modern pesticides, which can feed us with less land and lower carbon emissions, might be bearable. It follows that if the future of civilization is really at stake, adaptation or geo-engineering should not be unmentionable. And it follows that symbolic, ineffective, political grab-bag policies should be intolerable.

Here's Cochrane's write up about the op-ed: http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2017/07/on-climate-change....

tvchurch··on Why Single-Payer Health Care Saves Money
Here's the other thing about administrative costs: Medicare's patients cost a lot more per person than private insurance.

In other words, if it costs you $500 in administration costs and one patient has care that totals $5,000 and another has care that totals $10,000, then their administrative costs are 10% and 20%.

And yet we think that if we shifted more people onto a Medicare-like system, we'd save money.

tvchurch··on How “engagement” made the web a less engaging place
This is closer to what James was trying to get across in the article - how you do engagement means a lot.

I also say this while happily wearing my Readertron t-shirt. He's right - the conversations we had on Reader were very, very good.

tvchurch··on Has Wall Street Been Tamed?
I strongly recommend reading about John Cochrane's notion of equity-financed banking (PDF): http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/geor...

It functionally eliminates bank runs and the need for most regulation.

People will be able to bank like normal, but contagion and bank failures go away.

Not all banks need to be forced to go this route. But if you offered banks the option to opt-out of Dodd-Frank if they were 95% financed by equity and retained earnings, I'm pretty sure most would.

Longer essay here:

http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2016/05/equity-financed-ba...

tvchurch··on The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
This is a collection of mental models Charlie uses to explain human behavior. It was basically behavioral psychology before the field exploded.

Definitely take the time to read it. While it isn't a peer reviewed piece of work, you'll agree with his justifications simply on the basis of agreeing that, Yup, that is indeed how people act.

tvchurch··on Cheap Solar Power
Sure. Anyone pro- or anti-wind will say whatever argument they can to try to convince people.

All I'm saying is before we decide to build more wind turbines, we should have an honest accounting of all of the benefits and costs laid out. There are locations where they make sense and places where they don't. And there are levels where some government support might make sense, and some levels where they don't.

Even if people support one form of power generation over another, there should always be a limit.

tvchurch··on Cheap Solar Power
That's what I mean. Wind might be generated "for free," but one cost is what it looks like.

Another is how many birds it kills a year. (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-many-birds-do-w...)

That's not to say we shouldn't build it. Just that we need to consider what it costs before we do.

tvchurch··on Cheap Solar Power
Right, and making sure the base load of energy generation is stable.

We'll get there. I'd just like to make sure we remember that absolutely everything has a cost. The cost of anything is the value it has in its alternative uses.

If we're subsidizing renewable energy, we're not spending money on something else (and we're reducing people's incomes in the process).

tvchurch··on Cheap Solar Power
"Admits" seems a bit harsh, like he was doing his best to hide something from the world.

By all accounts, it looks like he had written out a reasonable explanation as to why he predicted solar would not become cost effective. At the end of the day, if something doesn't make financial sense, it won't last long without subsidies from the government.

The assumptions behind his predictions changed and therefore so did the conclusion. Seems pretty reasonable.

Like he says, solar power's intermittency is still an issue in non-sunny places, but in areas with lots of sunlight, the landscape of power generation is changing for the better.

tvchurch··on Hallelujah! CloudPull successfully scrapes "tag" data from Google Reader
I've been looking everywhere for a way to save all of my tags from Google Reader. I can verify that CloudPull preserves all tagged data and the links to the websites that have been tagged.

If you were worried about losing all of your bookmarks through Google Reader, this should put you at ease.

Now I hope Feedly and OldReader and any other Google Reader replacements incorporate tags, so that they can eventually re-incorporate my current tagged data.

tvchurch··on Google Reader shutting down
I'd urge everyone to give Readertron (readertron.com) a try. It was built by programmer (and good friend of mine) who was frustrated when Google nerfed the ability to share among friends within Google Reader. It's a work in progress, but at least you can share articles among friends again.

He's also very responsive to requests for features.

tvchurch··on Google Reader shutting down
I'd note that Readertron (readertron.com) was built by a guy who was frustrated when Google nerfed the sharing among friends feature.

MIght want to give it a shot.

tvchurch··on In Russia, Nancy Pelosi would own Google (But there would be no Google)
Yup, good point. Who was head of the SEC back when they went public?
tvchurch··on In Russia, Nancy Pelosi would own Google (But there would be no Google)
True, true, and Medvedev and others are actively working to create a "Silicon Valley of Moscow." But I wonder how long it is going to be before self-made wealth in Russia isn't intimately tied to relations with the state.
tvchurch··on Michigan left
Like these neat random articles? Check out Best of Wikipedia: (http://bestofwikipedia.tumblr.com/)

Usually twice a day, always good. (Not my site, btw)

Cheers.

tvchurch··on Squaring two digit numbers in your head
I remember reading how Bethe taught Feynman how to square numbers around 50 in his head.

1) Start at 50^2 = 2500. 2) Pick a number, determine how far away it is from 50, call it N (N can be negative). 3) Multiply N by 100, add that number to 2500. 4) Square N, add that number to your current total.

For example, 52^2. 1) Start at 2500. 2) N = 2. 3) N100 = 200. 2500 + 200 = 2700. 4) N^2 = 4. 2700 + 4 = 2704.

Example when N is negative: 47^2. 1) Start at 2500. 2) N = -3. 3) N100 = -300. 2500 + (-300) = 2200. 4) N^2 = 9. 2200 + 9 = 2209.

tvchurch··on Charlie Munger: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment
Poor Charlie's Almanack (http://tinyurl.com/poorcharliesalmanack) is worth every penny.

Everyone should read that book.

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