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tonyarkles

6,273 karma · joined August 11, 2009

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/tonyarkles; my proof: https://keybase.io/tonyarkles/sigs/iq9ddyFe50Dm4qkIVoUxyikegJWetjUTXaep9StktRs ]

Feel free to email: tony@persea.ca

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tonyarkles··on Show HN: AstroHelm – Use your phone camera to aim a telescope or telephoto lens
I’m not a professional by any means and am pretty new to astrophotography. Looking at the Stardroid repo there, it looks like it’s using GPS+Compass+IMU for pointing. That’s awesome for coarse positioning, but Plate Solving (what AstroHelm is doing) is using the photos themselves to do fine positioning. https://nova.astrometry.net/ is an open service that can take images and tell you where in the sky you were pointing. https://nighttime-imaging.eu/docs/master/site/advanced/plate... has some more details about different techniques and software packages. My understanding is that is basically identifies the 4-8 most prominent stars in the image and the angles between them and does a nearest neighbour search in a massive database. Pretty cool!
tonyarkles··on Ask HN: How would you feel if we nationalized Google?
The thing that I always come back to whenever some kind of heavy-handed government intervention is proposed: what would the other side use this same power to do? OP explicitly called out a hypothetical benevolent US government, but the government changes every 4 years. Even if there were such a hypothetical benevolent government in power when this happened, 4 years later it could be something entirely different.
tonyarkles··on First enhanced geothermal power plant completed in just 23 months
Huh, my first reaction was to say that Enhanced Geothermal is actually just a polite way of saying fracked geothermal but it turns out that's not quite accurate. Hydro-shearing (which EGS uses) doesn't intentionally create new cracks in the rock, which fracking does, but will cause existing cracks to grow. Potentially still negative local effects for sure but not as violently, hopefully.
tonyarkles··on Show HN: Photoc – Command-line tools for photographers
Check out https://www.libraw.org/! No affiliation, just a happy user.
tonyarkles··on Questions for believers in AI consciousness
Tricky thing, your comment and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49969529 are related in an interesting way but they're not in the same sub-thread. From the other comment:

> While I don't know if AI is conscious, I'm sure it has an internal world. Isn't that what a latent space literally is? LLMs operate in a high-dimensional space that can be analysed and translated to very abstract, high level concepts, behavioural tendencies, even things recognisable as emotions.

From your comment:

> My wife says please and thank you to Alexa. She gives it consideration like she would another human. When the robot asks me what my plans are for the rest of the day, I picture a Jira epic sliding from “In Progress” to “Done,” followed by a confetti emoji from a product manager at Amazon trying to earn their nubby little devil wings.

Where things get super interesting to me is the fact that it seems like (I have maybe read some academic work related to this, not sure) the kind of politeness your wife exhibits isn't useless in the context of a multi-turn session. To the other commenter's point, my understanding is that politeness/rudeness exists in the training corpus (scraped from stackoverflow, reddit, forums, etc) and that you can end up in different areas of latent space based on the overall tone of the session.

In some of the chat tools, because of the context management and "personality" stuff that happens behind the scenes, this can extend cross-session as well. ChatGPT, for example, for me, will frequently include text like "Hell Yeah!" and "Here's the shitty part..." in the responses, which is something I assume is happening because of historical context that's getting injected at the start of each session.

All of that to say... none of this, to me, has much to do with whether or not the thing is conscious, but rather that the training data makes it incredibly difficult for people to not see them as emotional beings because you can end up walking into different areas of latent space where different "emotional states" are affecting the output you're getting.

Unlike your polar bear example, an LLM can "love" you or "hate" you based on the input tokens that lead to the generation of the output tokens. Which is a pretty wild result on its own. Playing around with, say, Qwen 3.8 27B locally with my own experimental harness has been exceptionally fascinating.

tonyarkles··on Show HN: Nightwatch – a Mac menu-bar app that tells you when tonight is clear
The screenshot says North York Moors, which I had to look up but certainly looks like it qualifies!
tonyarkles··on Federal judge calls Flock 'indiscriminate mass surveillance'
Honestly, I was shocked by how many of them were successfully decided by rtl_433 running on a cheap RTL-SDR inside my house. I don’t live on a busy street. It picked mine up first but snagged a bunch more through the evening
tonyarkles··on Show HN: Audionaut – an open-source cross-platform multitrack audio editor
This is something that I’m interested in as well. My wife generally uses QLab for this and gets a lot of mileage out of it, but often enough ends up wanting this or that extra feature that just isn’t there.

I’m not sure that integrating it into a DAW is the way to go, but there’s definitely a need there.

tonyarkles··on There are no "rogue" AI agents
> when it's already in the worst possible hands as far as most of the human population is concerned.

I appreciate the sentiment but I feel like there is a lack of creativity and imagination behind that statement.

tonyarkles··on Dynamic Abliteration: Non-Destructive Refusal Suppression via Engram Steering
> And I would note, we absolutely failed to solve liability for software hacks, so your priors should be that coordinating this liability regime will be very hard.

Yeah, that’s one of the places where it gets really complicated. There was that story out of… Australia, I think, where someone asked OpenClaw to get them a slot in a morning gym class and the LLM figured out an unauthenticated API call it could make to cancel other peoples’ registrations to free up slots in the class. Very likely that that violated Australian law, even though nothing was “hacked” per se.

tonyarkles··on Dynamic Abliteration: Non-Destructive Refusal Suppression via Engram Steering
> models being out there that enable hacking

It's been really nice to be able to breathe new life into some old hardware I had kicking around that's been discontinued. Some of it just needed old exploits applied to it, some of it needed some binary reverse engineering. Lots of security tools are dual-use as well; a model that knows nothing about hacking is going to have a really hard to time helping defend a system that's getting hacked (see the HuggingFace incident where HF staff were unable to use ChatGPT or Claude to analyze the logs from the attack because they hit security research guardrails).

> manufacturing viruses at a scale...

I'm not sure if you're referring to software viruses or biological viruses here.

If you mean software viruses, see above.

If you mean biological viruses, a lot of this gets back into the dual-use nature as well. I brew beer and mead. This involves cultivating specific strains of bacteria and providing them with a medium where they can convert sugar into CO2 and Ethanol. I don't think there's a good way to thin-slice the training data so that it can be an expert helper at Saccharomyces cerevisiae cultivation while being completely naive to Clostridium botulinum cultivation. Even further, it seems that helping someone make sure that they're not inadvertently cultivating Botulinum (e.g. water bath canning with insufficient pH) is useful.

tonyarkles··on Dynamic Abliteration: Non-Destructive Refusal Suppression via Engram Steering
I like the framing. Where do you feel things land with respect to legality of actions? China, Canada, the EU, and the US all have different ideas of what's legal vs. illegal behaviour. If I ask my agent to source equipment for growing 4 marijuana plants, that's perfectly legal here; if I ask it to source equipment for growing 5 marijuana plants, that may not be legal. If I ask it to root my home router, that's legal; if I ask it to root my coffee shop's router, that's likely not legal.
tonyarkles··on 'We hacked the FBI:' Hackers say they have data on all FBI employees
Yeah, just like a lot of organizational change, one approach would probably be to put together a small Skunkworks-type team to nail it on one specific product. Existence proofs have, in my experience, a pretty powerful effect on the naysayers.
tonyarkles··on People hooked on vapes try a new way to quit: cigarettes
My sister-in-law was so upset when we ran a 10K together, I beat her by 5 or 6 minutes, and when she found me at the finish line I was having a smoke.

Genetic lottery for sure. I’m still quitting but it’s not really because of acute or chronic health problems, mostly cost and being tired of stinking all the time.

tonyarkles··on People hooked on vapes try a new way to quit: cigarettes
I’m with you 100%. We’ll see if the last step goes ok next month after the MAOI is all cleared.
tonyarkles··on People hooked on vapes try a new way to quit: cigarettes
Yeah, so I have smoked for 80% of the last 30 years… usually between 1/2-1 pack/day. I’ve been cutting back by switching to vape, knowing that it only has nicotine and not the MAOI and other substances. Right before Labour Day weekend I ran out and decided to try going the weekend. It’s been 20 days now and I am starting to feel like the effects of the MAOI are starting to wear off. I still have nicotine cravings, but it’s once I firmly feel like the MAOI withdrawal is gone (probably another week or two) I plan to start breaking the habit with patches and maybe gum.

Step by step, I feel like it might actually stick for real this time. Every time I started up again in the past was contextual (eg a break up, out for drinks with friends, have a half drunk smoke and I’m hooked again). No longer have any smoker friends, no longer have significant drama in my life, hoping it’ll work out.

tonyarkles··on 'We hacked the FBI:' Hackers say they have data on all FBI employees
And the reasoning behind that choice is looking at the tradeoffs and saying “shipping more features faster is more important”
tonyarkles··on This PCB is brought to you by Fable 5
As a quick WIP update:

- The first board, which I had already done manual schematic capture, floor planning, and some routing on (but then I lost steam and it’s been sitting at 90% for 6 months) was finished quite readily by Opus + KiCadRoutingTools.

- A second significantly more complex board that has been sitting at the “I’ve done a bunch of planning in Obsidian but haven’t started schematic capture yet” stage… Fable took my Markdown notes, asked questions to fill in the blanks, and put together a plan. Opus first put together a very ugly schematic (essentially all of the parts but no wires between them, just net connections) which then got refined into a nicer-ish schematic. Floor planning went smoothly, the first cut was decent and with a little bit of manual refinement it got somewhere pretty good. Currently routing and still debating a bit between 4-layer and 6-layer. The BGA escapes seem to be causing the majority of the problems right now; originally Opus decided that 4-layer wasn’t feasible due to not being able to even route all the nets, switched to 6-layer, did better but still ended up with like 70 unroutable nets. A bit of back and forth led to revising the BGA fan-out and now we’re back at looking at whether a 4-layer board might be feasible.

For the second one, I’m not 100% sure whether wall-clock-time this is a faster process than it would’ve been to do manually, but… the initial 4-layer attempts were all done while I was out for a date with my wife, the remaining 4-layer attempts ran overnight, the first 6-layer routing attempt was done while I was having my coffee this morning, and now the 4-layer/6-layer fanout changes are being done while I run errands. Something I find especially interesting is that by leaning on KiCadRoutingTools, it looks like there’s actually very little token usage at the routing stage; the plan gets put together as Python + KiCadRoutingTools instructions and then the hard work is done by that tooling. LLM picks up the results, looks at it, tweaks, kicks off a new job. That’s a pretty interesting result; this has all been running on my laptop pretty much continuously for 15 hours and I’m nowhere near any of my usage limits.

tonyarkles··on Border agents can search cellphones without a warrant or reasonable suspicion
And just to clarify another element of the story: there is a significant legal difference between pre-clearance in a Canadian airport and landing in the US and proceeding through customs on US soil. At a pre-clearance station, you are still on Canadian soil. I'm sure there are exceptions, but you generally can "withdraw your application to enter" and basically just turn around and walk away from the border. If you decide you don't want to unlock your phone for the CBP officer, you can walk away. At that point they've already seen your passport and you're going to be flagged and may never be approved for entry again, but you're not going to end up on a CBP facility. Once you're through, you'll need to clear Canadian customs to go back, but if something happens it will be Canadian police that arrest you.
tonyarkles··on Border agents can search cellphones without a warrant or reasonable suspicion
> Because you can't exactly sneak on/off of an international airplane.

I'm actually pretty curious about this. You can't easily sneak on/off a commercial international airplane, but that's because they've got the gates set up in the airport to funnel you through a specific path that leads to customs. Showing up on an international charter or GA flight seems squishier. http://www.canada.eaachapter.org/FLYING%20TO%20and%20FROM%20... The process seems to be that you schedule an ETA, taxi to a CBP station and wait there until a CBP officer arrives.

On the other side of it, it looks like CANPASS would let you land in Canada even if the CBSA station is closed...

tonyarkles··on PCB is brought to you by Fable 5
Yeah it's the one mentioned in the article. I've tried FreeRouting or whatever it's called before and had... ok results... but it's a pain in the ass to set up. This KiCadRoutingTools code was super easy to set up in comparison.

Edit: actually, one interesting thing to consider about routing vs. schematic design: my general experience with LLMs is that things work best when there's a feedback loop. On the schematic side, there isn't really much of a feedback loop; nothing will tell you that you've e.g. flipped the + and - terminals of your Opamp.

On the layout side, you've got the ratsnest and DRC to tell you whether you're winning or not. That might be the key to making LLM-based routing work. Opus refused to hand-route my whole board yesterday but is currently using the KCRT tools to do the routing and things seem to be progressing well.

tonyarkles··on PCB is brought to you by Fable 5
Your post and the link to KiCadRoutingTools is going to result in me finishing a project I started 6 months ago and have just let sit and linger because, like you point out, it was only the boring parts left. Fable found a bit of a showstopper in my design yesterday (an LDO that was right near its limits) and suggested a replacement, Opus filled in all of the missing pull-up/pull-down resistor values, double-checked all of the decoupling caps, and then did floor planning on the PCB side. I just installed KiCadRoutingTools and am getting close to happy with the state of the board and will likely be ordering them tomorrow!
tonyarkles··on PCB is brought to you by Fable 5
> I think there is great value to using LLMs to assist in learning new hobbies, helping lessen the friction, and doing research

Claude (web) saved me a ton of money with a new hobby. I was curious about astrophotography and had a budget to fill in any missing pieces from my existing photography kit. The conclusion was basically: "get a $20 intervalometer and a wall-wart battery[1]. The lenses you've got are fine, the tripod you've got is fine, and hey good news, Jupyter and Venus are near conjunction so if you can find somewhere dark where you can shoot to the west, you can get a pretty cool timelapse this weekend"

Later on also provided some rough guidelines for the partial lunar eclipse that resulted in some pretty amazing photos.

Since then I have been doing a bit of research on getting a real mount, so that initial budget will probably get used, but it'll be a) for kit that I genuinely don't have yet and b) spent after I've already confirmed that I thoroughly enjoy going out and photographing the stars for hours and then stitching all those photos into timelapses or other neat stacks.

[1] I'm not sure what the right name is for this. One end is battery-shaped but has a wire that plugs into a wall-wart instead of having to switch batteries. I had an existing 500-Wh 120V battery bank thing and it was more than enough to run the camera for 6 hours.

tonyarkles··on PCB is brought to you by Fable 5
I've installed it this morning to play around with on some low-speed designs before trying a high-speed design. Looking at that specific screenshot you posted there... that looks partially like a floor planning problem to me. Looking up the part number, that Ti90G529 is an FPGA, which also suggests that the overall routing could potentially get a lot better if the pads from the part on the left-hand side were shifted to all be on the "top" or "bottom" of U3 instead of divided across it the way it is right now.

My first attempt on a low-speed not-dense board came out OK. There were a few odd choices, but I don't expect perfection from auto-routers. If nothing else, auto-routers are a good way to double-check that your floor planning is OK, even if you then rip up the auto-routed traces and hand route them instead.

tonyarkles··on PCB is brought to you by Fable 5
> changed I2C to SPI for no reason

Heh, tongue firmly in cheek: there's a good reason to change from I2C to SPI. I2C's pretty shit in comparison :D

More seriously, I've had interesting mixed results. I had a hobby-maybe-commercialize-next-year Christmas lighting project that I started in March (if I start in March, this will definitely be ready for Christmas!) and got 90% of the way there... and then life got busy and it's sat there untouched with the holiday season coming up again quicker than I'd like. I threw Fable at it first to assess what's done, not done, look for schematic mistakes/improvements (it rightfully pointed out that the cheap LDO I was using was near its limits and suggested a better part).

Opus did a reasonable job of swapping out the LDO, putting reasonable values on all of the pull-ups/pull-downs, etc. Some of the labels did end up in slightly weird places and needed some manual correction. It also did a decent job of floor planning on the PCB side, but pretty much refused to do any routing other than power traces.

I've installed https://github.com/drandyhaas/KiCadRoutingTools this morning after seeing this article last night... we'll see how this goes. My first manual attempt at running the router did decent but it failed a bunch of DRC spacing rules and insisted on via-in-pad to make it all work. That's, I think, a side effect of Opus's floor planning. It's interesting to play around with to see what's good and not.

tonyarkles··on ER visits for gambling disorders doubled after expanded online gambling market
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49733104

Comes out to about $100/month

tonyarkles··on ER visits for gambling disorders doubled after expanded online gambling market
https://igamingontario.ca/en/news/igaming-ontario-posts-stea...

$3.2B revenue, 2.6M player accounts, ~$1230/yr ~= $100/month

tonyarkles··on ER visits for gambling disorders doubled after expanded online gambling market
> Society has looked at that and decided that, yes, no one should be allowed to do that on public streets. So I keep that behavior to the race track and sign an extra liability waiver in order to do so.

So can I still drink and gamble in private if I sign a waiver?

tonyarkles··on Nvidia is the central bank of AI
As I look up and see three lightbulbs side-by-side over my desk and another one in the lamp on the desk… which is dramatically more light than the old 100W bulb used but also lower energy consumption.
tonyarkles··on DaVinci Resolve 21.1
Heh, you're probably right. Something that did make me laugh pretty hard... I had a GoPro timelapse of an IMAX theatre screen being replaced and I thought to myself "surely in the vast sea of DaVinci Resolve features I've never used, un-fisheye has got to be there". Sure enough, I found it, it looked great, and it's the only time I've hit the "you need to buy the pro version to use this feature if you don't want a big watermark" gate.
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