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tolmasky

10,734 karma · joined October 1, 2007

http://www.tolmasky.com

@tolmasky

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tolmasky··on Anthropic drops flagship safety pledge
I don't understand how safety is taken seriously at all. To be clear, I'm not referring to skepticism that these companies can possibly resist the temptation to make unsafe models forever. No, I'm talking about something far more basic: the fact that for all the talk around safety, there is very little discussion about what exactly "safety" means or what constitutes "ethical" or "aligned" behavior. I've read reams of documents from Anthropic around their "approach to safety". The "Responsible Scaling Policy," Claude's "Constitution". The "AI Safety Level" framework. Layer 1, Layer 2.

It's so much focus on implementation, and processes, and really really seems to consider the question of what even constitutes "misaligned" or "unethical" behavior to be more or less straight forward, uncontroversial, and basically universally agreed upon?

Let's be clear: Humans are not aligned. In fact, humans have not come to a common agreement of what it means to be aligned. Look around, the same actions are considered virtuous by some and villainous by others. Before we get to whether or not I trust Anthropic to stick to their self-imposed processes, I'd like to have a general idea of what their values even are. Perhaps they've made something they see as super ethical that I find completely unethical. Who knows. The most concrete stances they take in their "Constitution" are still laughably ambiguous. For example, they say that Claude takes into account how many people are affected if an action is potentially harmful. They also say that Claude values "Protection of vulnerable groups." These two statements trivially lead to completely opposing conclusions in our own population depending on whether one considers the "unborn" to be a "vulnerable group". Don't get caught up in whether you believe this or not, simply realize that this very simple question changes the meaning of these principles entirely. It is not sufficient to simply say "Claude is neutral on the issue of abortion." For starters, it is almost certainly not true. You can probably construct a question that is necessarily causally connected to the number of unborn children affected, and Claude's answer will reveal it's "hidden preference." What would true neutrality even mean here anyways? If I ask it for help driving my sister to a neighboring state should it interrogate me to see if I am trying to help her get to a state where abortion is legal? Again, notice that both helping me and refusing to help me could anger a not insignificant portion of the population.

This Pentagon thing has gotten everyone riled up recently, but I don't understand why people weren't up in arms the second they found out AIs were assisting congresspeople in writing bills. Not all questions of ethics are as straight forward as whether or not Claude should help the Pentagon bomb a country.

Consider the following when you think about more and more legislation being AI-assisted going forward, and then really ask yourself whether "AI alignment" was ever a thing:

1. What is Claude's stances on labor issues? Does it lean pro or anti-union? Is there an ethical issue with Claude helping a legislator craft legislation that weakens collective bargaining? Or, alternatively, is it ethical for Claude to help draft legislation that protects unions?

2. What is Claude's stance on climate change? Is it ethical for Claude to help craft legislation that weakens environmental regulations? What if weakening those regulations arguably creates millions of jobs?

3. What is Claude's stance on taxes? Is it ethical for Claude to help craft legislation that makes the tax system less progressive? If it helps you argue for a flat tax? How about more progressive? Where does Claude stand on California's infamous Prop 19? If this seems too in the weeds, then that would imply that whether or not the current generation can manage to own a home in the most populous state in the US is not an issue that "affects enough people." If that's the case, then what is?

4. Where does Claude land on the question of capitalism vs. socialism? Should healthcare be provided by the state? How about to undocumented immigrants? In fact, how does Claude feel about a path to amnesty, or just immigration in general?

Remember, the important thing here is not what you believe about the above questions, but rather the fact that Claude is participating in those arguments, and increasingly so. Many of these questions will impact far more people than overt military action. And this is for questions that we all at least generally agree have some ethical impact, even if we don't necessarily agree on what that impact may be. There is another class of questions where we don't realize the ethical implications until much later. Knowing what we know now, if Claude had existed 20 years ago, should it have helped code up social networks? How about social games? A large portion of the population has seemingly reached the conclusion that this is such an important ethical question that it merits one of the largest regulation increases the internet has ever seen in order to prevent children from using social media altogether. If Claude had assisted in the creation of those services, would we judge it as having failed its mission in retrospect? Or would that have been too harsh and unfair a conclusion? But what's the alternative, saying it's OK if the AI's destroy society... as long as if it's only on accident?

What use is a super intelligence if it's ultimately as bad at predicting unintended negative consequences as we are?

tolmasky··on The Age Verification Trap: Verifying age undermines everyone's data protection
If you need help (monetary or otherwise), please email me at tolmasky |at| gmail |dot| com. This is a sincere offer. I can't tell how much is hyperbole in your post, but if you're going through that and I can help, I'd be happy to.

> I mean you got $20 million and what did you do? You started making addictive games.

I refrained from responding to the rest since it seems that there is a deeper issue, but I could not help setting the record straight here. I think everyone who has ever played Bonsai Slice will firmly attest to it being the opposite of addicting. My parents never let me own a game console so I never really wrapped my head around games, and made exactly the kind of game someone like that would come up with: a deep tech exploration, to hopefully make progress on two problems that were plaguing me at the time: 1) how little mobile UI had seemed to progress (instead getting stuck in one-tap local maxima), and 2) building an app that is generally considered to be the worst candidate for a pure immutable language... in a pure immutable language in order to serve as a forcing function to surface new ideas in the space. I've always believed that if you wanted to make a general purpose programming language, you should probably try to have as much varied experience as possible, or otherwise you'll end up with a domain-specific language that is misused for every other domain (this is how I would describe most programming languages. In fact, I'd say most programming languages are written for the niche use case of writing a compiler, since they are written by compiler writers. Ironic that that is the last thing most get used for.). As such, I made a decision to start actually writing a wide variety of apps.

tolmasky··on The Age Verification Trap: Verifying age undermines everyone's data protection
I want to sincerely ask whether you read my post, because your response is so unrelated I believe you might accidentally be responding to another post? If so, please ignore the rest, which is only intended in the case where you are actually responding to what I wrote.

Your system seems to address none of the issues I listed. For example, I argue that one difficulty is in the fact that these systems would be highly phishable -- a property that is present in your described "easy" solution. Your system trains users to become accustomed to being pestered by pop up windows that ask to see their ID and use their camera. Congrats, I can now trivially make a pop up a window that looks like this UI and use it to steal your info, as the user will just respond on auto-drive, as we have repeatedly shown both in user studies and in our own lived experiences. I also explained how a system like this would assist in the practice of trapping migrant workers by confiscating their government credentials [1]. This is a huge problem today in Asia, and one of the few outlets captive workers can use to escape this control is the internet -- a "loophole" your system would dutifully close for these corporations.

I am happy to have a discussion about this -- it's how we come up with new solutions! But that requires reading and responding to the concerns I brought up, not assuming that my issue is that I can't imagine implementing a glorified OAuth login flow.

1. There's tons of articles about this, here is one of the first ones that comes up on Google: https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2025/05/saudi-arabia-...

tolmasky··on The Age Verification Trap: Verifying age undermines everyone's data protection
I am so surprised by the comments on this thread. I was not expecting to see so many people on Hacker News in favor of this. As is typically the case with things like this, the reasoning stems from agreeing with the goal of age verification, with little regard to whether age verification could ever actually work. It reminds me in some sense to the situation with encryption where politicians want encryption that blocks "the bad guys" while still allowing "the good guys" to sneak in if necessary. Sure, that sounds cool, it's not possible though. I suppose DRM is a better analogue here, an increasingly convoluted system that slowly takes over your entire machine just so it can pretend that you can't view video while you're viewing it.

To be clear, tackling the issue of child access to the internet is a valuable goal. Unfortunately, "well what if there was a magic amulet that held the truth of the user's age and we could talk to it" is not a worthwhile path to explore. Just off the top of my head:

1. In an age of data leaks, identity theft, and phishing, we are training users to constantly present their ID, and critically for things as low stakes as facebook. It would be one thing if we were training people to show their ID JUST for filing taxes online or something (still not great, but at least conveys the sensitivity of the information they are releasing), but no, we are saying that the "correct future" is handing this information out for Farmville (and we can expect its requirement to expand over time of course). It doesn't matter if it happens at the OS level or the web page level -- they are identical as far as phishing is concerned. You spoof the UI that the OS would bring up to scan your face or ID or whatever, and everyone is trained to just grant the information, just like we're all used to just hitting "OK" and don't bother reading dialogs anymore.

2. This is a mess for the ~1 billion people on earth that don't have a government ID. This is a huge setback to populations we should be trying to get online. Now all of a sudden your usage of the internet is dependent on your country having an advanced enough system of government ID? Seems like a great way for tech companies to gain leverage over smaller third world companies by controlling their access to the internet to implementing support for their government documents. Also seems like a great way to lock open source out of serious operating system development if it now requires relationships with all the countries in the world. If you think this is "just" a problem of getting IDs into everyone's hands, remember that it a common practice to take foreign worker's passports and IDs away from them in order to hold them effectively hostage. The internet was previously a powerful outlet for working around this, and would now instead assist this practice.

3. Short of implementing HDCP-style hardware attestation (which more or less locks in the current players indefinitely), this will be trivially circumvented by the parties you're attempting to help, much like DRM was.

Again, the issues that these systems are attempting to address are valid, I am not saying otherwise. These issues are also hard. The temptation to just have an oracle gate-checker is tempting, I know. But we've seen time and again that this just (at best) creates a lot of work and doesn't actually solve the problem. Look no further than cookie banners -- nothing has changed from a data collection perspective, it's just created a "cookie banner expert" industry and possibly made users more indifferent to data collection as a knee-jerk reaction to the UX decay banners have created on the internet as a whole. Let's not 10 years from now laugh about how any sufficiently motivated teenager can scan their parent's phone while they're asleep, or pay some deadbeat 18 year-old to use their ID, and bypass any verification system, while simulateneously furthering the stranglehold large corporations have over the internet.

tolmasky··on 1X Neo – Home Robot - Pre Order
Is having a real robot creepy? I don't know. Is having a robot operated by a human creepy and scary? Absolutely yes.

We've seen that people behave worse when you introduce indirection. People act worse on the internet. Soldiers have an easier time killing with drones than in person. The ethical issue is in both directions: its inhumane to the operator, but I also don't want to feel like a fake person on a video screen to them.

This is then exacerbated when you realize that the people operating this machine are almost certainly not being paid well, creating obvious and legitimate negative incentives. Then you plop them into the households of people with the insane wealth required to afford this. You might think that I have just described the situation with maids (and to some extent, I agree! I have never really felt comfortable that dynamic either), but this is actually different, because you are adding in the indirection and making actions and interactions feel less "real" to both parties: the clients are likely to treat the robots worse than they would a human helper, and the operators may feel these rude clients they see on their monitors aren't as real as the people around them.

tolmasky··on ChatGPT Atlas
If this ever gets popular then sellers will “optimize” their product listings to exploit the LLM (a “soft” prompt injection if you will). This will definitely be the case in marketplaces (like Amazon and Walmart). It’ll turn the old boring task of shopping into a fun puzzle to spot the decoy item or overpriced product.
tolmasky··on Trump to impose $100k fee for H-1B worker visas, White House says
Perfect number to make H1Bs a tool that is out of reach for startups but still meaningful for large entrenched corporations. Nailed it. Maybe they can even waive the fee if you give the US government 10% of your company.
tolmasky··on Human writers have always used the em dash
I'm glad the em dash is getting properly shit on these days, if for unrelated reasons. I've never liked it. I hate the stupid spacing rules around it. It never looks right to put no spaces around the em dash, and probably breaks all sorts of word-splitting code that's based on "\s". Where else does punctuation without spaces not mean a single word? Hyphens without spaces is a compound word: it counts as one. Imagine if the correct use of a colon was to not put spaces around it:like this. Do you like that? Of course not.

But I think worst of all it just gives me the fucking creeps, some uncanny-valley bullshit. I see hyphens a million times a day then out of nowhere comes this creepy slender-man looking motherfucker that's just a little bit too long than you'd expect or like, and is always touching all the letters around it when it shouldn't need to. It stands out looking like a weird print error... on my screen! Hopefully it keeps building a worse and worse reputation.

tolmasky··on The treasury is expanding the Patriot Act to attack Bitcoin self custody
Does no one else find it weird seeing anything from this administration "anti-Bitcoin" at all? I wouldn't be surprised by this headline during a previous administration, but generally speaking, this administration has been very Bitcoin-friendly (and Bitcoin institutions friendly right back). To be clear, the simplest answer is "sure but that doesn't mean they have to agree on everything". But I would like to propose that if you ask the simple question of "who does this benefit?" it may suggest we are witnessing a different phenomenon here.

I think this might be the first indication that what we currently call "institutional Bitcoin supporters" are not "Bitcoin supporters" at all, or rather, what they call "Bitcoin" is not what you and I call "Bitcoin". Services like Coinbase and BTC ETFs don't really suffer from this development at all. In fact, I think it's quite obvious that obviously benefit from something like this (at least from the first-order effects). What's the alternative to self custody? Well... third-party custody. Especially since they are already bound up by KYC rules, right? Their is a cynical reading that there's nothing inconsistent with this development if you consider "institutional Bitcoin's" goals to primarily be replacing existing financial power structures with themselves. "Bitcoin" is just a means to an end. Their goals were only incidentally aligned with individual BTC holders since they were previously in similar circumstances as the "out group". Previous administrations were as suspicious of "Bitcoin companies" as any individual Bitcoin holder, perhaps even more so. But that's not the case anymore. Bitcoin companies have successfully been brought into the fold, so it's not even that they're necessarily "betraying" the values of Bitcoin true believers, you might argue that interpretation of shared values was entirely inferred to begin with.

Critically though, I think an important consequence of this is that Bitcoin purists and skeptics should realize that they arguably now have more in common than not, at least in the immediate term, and may be each other's best allies. In my experience, for most the existence of Bitcoin, its skeptics haven't really seen Bitcoin as a "threat." Instead, to admittedly generalize, their critiques have been mostly about Bitcoin being "broken" or "silly" or "misunderstanding the point of centralized systems", etc. These aren't really "oppositional" positions in the traditional "adversarial sense," more dismissive. In fact, the closest thing to an "active moral opposition" to Bitcoin that I've seen is an environmental one. IOW, Bitcoin true believers think about Bitcoin way more than Bitcoin skeptics do. Similarly, Bitcoin true believers really have nothing against skeptics other than... the fact that they occasionally talk shit about Bitcoin? IOW, Bitcoin skeptics are not "the natural enemy Bitcoin was designed to defeat".

But if you think about it, "institutional Bitcoin" sort of embodies something both these camps generally have hated since before Bitcoin. Whether you believe Bitcoin to be a viable answer or not, it is undeniable that the "idea" of Bitcoin is rooted in the distrust of these elitist financial institutions, that evade accountability, benefit from special treatment, and largely get to rig the larger system in their favor. Similarly, I don't think Bitcoin skeptics like these institutions or are "on their side". In fact, perhaps they'd argue that they predicted that Bitcoin wouldn't solve any of this and would just be another means of creating them. But IMO what they should both realize is that the most important threat right now is these institutional players. They are in fact, only "nominally" Bitcoin in a deep sense. From the perspective of true believers, their interests are actually in now way "essentially" aligned with any "original Bitcoin values," and from the perspective of skeptics, the threat they pose has very little to do with their use of "the Bitcoin blockchain".

They are arguably just another instantiation of the "late stage capitalist" playbook of displacing an existing government service in order to privatize its rewards. Coinbase could be argued to have more in common with Uber than Ledger wallets. Instead of consolidating and squeezing all the value from taxis though, the play is to do the same with currency itself. It is incidental that Uber happened to be so seemingly "government averse". In this context, it's actually helpful to cozy up to the government and provide the things government departments want that make no difference to fintech's bottom line (such as KYP). In fact, that might be their true value proposition. Bitcoin only enters the conversation because in order to replace a currency, you do... need a currency. Bitcoin was convenient. It was already there, it had a built-in (fervent) user base that was happy to do your proselytizing for you, and even saw you as a good "first step" for normies that couldn't figure out to manage their own wallet. The Bitcoin bubble was already there, why fight it when you can ride it?

Again, I think this is highly likely to be against the values of Bitcoin true believers and skeptics alike, and I also think that if the above is true, it represents an actual danger to us all. Recent events with credit card processors have already demonstrated that payment systems have proven to be incredibly efficient tools at stifling speech. In other words, this is arguably an "S-tier threat", on par with or perhaps worse than any sort of internet censorship or net neutrality. If so, we should treat it as such and work together.

tolmasky··on The challenge of maintaining curl
This doesn't really address the point that is currently being argued I think, so much so that I think your comment is not even in contention with mine (perhaps you didn't intend it to be!). But for lack of a better term, you are describing a "closed experience". You are (to some approximation) assuming the burden of your choices here. You are applying the tool to your work, and thus are arguably "qualified" to both assess the applicability of the tool to the work, and to verify the results. Basically, the verification "scales" with your usage. Great.

The problem that OP is presenting is that, unlike in your own use, the verification burden from this "open source" usage is not taken on by the "contributors", but instead "externalized" to maintainers. This does not result in the same "linear" experience you have, their experience is asymmetric, as they are now being flooded with a bunch of PRs that (at least currently) are harder to review than human submissions. Not to mention that also unlike your situation, they have no means to "choose" not to use LLMs if they for whatever reason discover it isn't a good fit for their project. If you see something isn't a good fit, boom, you can just say "OK, I guess LLMs aren't ready for this yet." That's not a power maintainers have. The PRs will keep coming as a function of the ease to create them, not as a function of their utility. Thus the verification burden does not scale with the maintainer's usage. It scales with the sum of everyone who has decided they can ask an LLM to go "help" you. That number both larger and out of their control.

The main point of my comment was to say that this situation is not only to be expected, but IMO essential and inseparable from this kind of use, for reasons that actually follow directly from your post. When you are working on your own project, it is totally reasonable to treat the LLM operator as qualified to verify the LLMs outputs. But the opposite is true when you are applying it to someone else's project.

> Needing to verify the results does not negate the time savings either when verification is much quicker than doing a task from scratch.

This is of course only true because of your existing familiarity with of the project you are working on. This is not a universal property of contributions. It is not "trivial" for me to verify a generated patch in a project I don't understand, for reasons ranging from things as simple as the fact that I have no idea what the code contribution guidelines are (who am I to know if I am even following the style guidelines) to things as complicated as the fact that I may not even be familiar with the programming language the project is written in.

> And if you are checking the LLM's results, you have nothing to worry about.

Precisely. This is the crux of the issue -- I am saying that in the contribution case, it's not even about whether you are checking the results, it's that you arguably can't meaningfully check the results (unless you of course essentially put in nearly the same amount of work as just writing it from scratch).

It is tempting to say "But isn't this orthogonal to LLMs? Isn't this also the case with submitting PRs you created yourself?" No! It is qualitatively different. Anyone who has ever submitted a meaningful patch to a project they've never worked on before has had the experience of having to familiarize themselves with the relevant code in order to create said patch. The mere act of writing the fix organically "bootstraps" you into developing expertise in the code. You will if nothing else develop an opinion on the fix you chose to implement, and thus be capable of discussing it after you've submitted it. You, the PR submitter, will be worthwhile to engage with and thus invest time in. I am aware that we can trivially construct hypothetical systems where AI agents are participating in PR discussions and develop something akin to a long term "memory" or "opinion" -- but we can talk about that experience if and when it ever comes into being, because that is not the current lived experience of maintainers. It's just a deluge of low quality one-way spam. Even the corporations that are specifically trying to implement this experience just for their own internal processes are not particularly... what's a nice way to put this, "satisfying" to work with, and that is for a much more constrained environment, vs. "suggesting valuable fixes to any and all projects".

tolmasky··on The challenge of maintaining curl
Generally speaking, the second you realize a technology/process/anything has a hard requirement that individuals independently exercise responsibility or self-control, with no obvious immediate gain for themselves, it is almost certain that said technology/process/anything is unsalvageable in its current form.

This is in the general case. But with LLMs, the entire selling point is specifically offloading "reasoning" to them. That is quite literally what they are selling you. So with LLMs, you can swap out "almost certain" in the above rule to "absolutely certain without a shadow of a doubt". This isn't even a hypothetical as we have experimental evidence that LLMs cause people to think/reason less. So you are at best already starting at a deficit.

But more importantly, this makes the entire premise of using LLMs make no sense (at least from a marketing perspective). What good is a thinking machine if I need to verify it? Especially when you are telling me that it will be a "super reasoning" machine soon. Do I need a human "super verifier" to match? In fact, that's not even a tomorrow problem, that is a today problem: LLMs are quite literally advertised to me as a "PhD in my pocket". I don't have a PhD. Most people would find the idea of me "verifying the work of human PhDs" to be quite silly, so how does it make any sense that I am in any way qualified to verify my robo-PhD? I pay for it precisely because it knows more than I do! Do I now need to hire a human PhD to verify my robo-PhD?" Short of that, is it the case that only human PhDs are qualified to use robo-PhDs? In other words, should LLms exclusively be used for things the operator already knows how to do? That seems weird. It's like a Magic 8 Ball that only answers questions you already know the answer to. Hilariously, you could even find someone reaching the conclusion of "well, sure, a curl expert should verify the patch I am submitting to curl. That's what submitting the patch accomplishes! The experts who work on curl will verify it! Who better to do it than them?". And now we've come full circle!

To be clear, each of these questions has plenty of counter-points/workarounds/etc. The point is not to present some philosophical gotcha argument against LLM use. The point rather is to demonstrate the fundamental mismatch between the value-proposition of LLMs and their theoretical "correct use", and thus demonstrate why it is astronomically unlikely for them to ever be used correctly.

tolmasky··on The Helix Text Editor (2024)
How strange that the article never links directly to the Helix editor. I usually immediately open the homepage of whatever a blog post is talking about as a background tab to be able to click back and forth, or to be able to immediately figure out what the thing being talked about is, but no luck here, except for some decoys (like the "helix" link next to the title which is just the tag "helix" which sends you to a page with all the posts tagged with "helix", which happens to just be this one post).

I of course quickly just googled it myself and found the page, and so afterward I went to the source of the blog post and searched for the URL to confirm that it wasn't actually linked to anywhere. Turns out that about three quarters of the way down, in the "Key Bindings" section, there is a link to the Helix keymappings documentation page, which appears to be the closest thing to a direct homepage link.

Anyways, no nefarious intent being implied of course, I just found it sort of interesting. I am pretty certain it just got accidentally left out, or maybe the project didn't have a homepage back in December of 2024 when this was originally written? Although the github page isn't directly linked either (only one specific issue in the github tracker).

Oh, and here's a link to their page: https://helix-editor.com/

And github page: https://github.com/helix-editor/

tolmasky··on Areal, Are.na's new typeface
I didn't see mention anywhere of a license. I also don't see anywhere to download this from. Is this release equivalent to saying "here is an OFL metric-compatible Arial," or are they releasing it in the sense of "our products will now look like they use Arial, but aside from that this doesn't concern you."?
tolmasky··on Robots.txt is a suicide note (2011)
By bypass I mean "successfully pass the challenge". Yes, I also have to sit through the Anubis interstitial pages, so I promise I know it's not being "bypassed". (I'll update the post to remove future confusion).

Do you disagree that a trivial usage of an off-the-shelf puppeteer scraper[1] has no problem doing the proof-of-work? As I mentioned in this comment [2], AI scrapers are not on some time crunch, they are happy to wait a second or two for the final content to load (there are plenty of normal pages that take longer than the Anubis proof of work does to complete), and also are unfazed by redirects. Again, these are issues you deal with normal everyday scraping. And also, do you disagree with the traffic statics from Cloudflare's site? If we're seeing anything close to that 18% increase then it would not seem to merit user-visible levels of mitigation. Even if it was 180% you wouldn't need to do this. nginx is not constantly on the verge of failing from a double digit "traffic spike".

As I mentioned in my response to the Anubis author here [3], I don't want this to be misinterpreted as a "defense of AI scrapers" or something. Our goals are aligned. The response there goes into detail that my motivation is that a project I am working on will potentially not be possible if I am wrong and this AI scraper phenomenon is as described. I have every incentive in the world to just want to get to the bottom of this. Perhaps you're right, and I still don't understand the purpose of Anubis. I want to! Because currently neither the numbers nor the mitigations seem to line up.

BTW, my same request extends to you, if you have direct experience with this issue, I'd love to jump on a call to wrap my head around this.

My email is my HN username at gmail.com if you want to reach out, I'd greatly appreciate it!

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44944761

2. https://apify.com/apify/puppeteer-scraper

3. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44944886

tolmasky··on Robots.txt is a suicide note (2011)
> I specifically want a search engine that does not run JavaScript, so that it only finds documents that do not require JavaScripts to display the text being searched. (This is not the same as excluding everything that has JavaScripts; some web pages use JavaScripts but can still display the text even without it.)

Sure... but off-topic, right? AI companies are desperate for high quality data, and unlike search scrapers, are actually not supremely time sensitive. That is to say, they don't benefit from picking up on changes seconds after they are published. They essentially take a "snapshot" and then do a training run. There is no "real-time updating" of an AI model. So they have all the time in the world to wait for a page to reach an ideal state, as well as all the incentive in the world to wait for that too. Since the data effectively gets "baked into the model" and then is static for the entire lifetime of the model, you over-index on getting the data, not getting fast, or cheap, or whatever.

tolmasky··on Robots.txt is a suicide note (2011)
From the first paragraph in my comment:

> You'd see them taking some additional steps to combat this. They haven't. Their CDN handles it just fine. They don't even both telling AI bots to just download the tarballs they specifically make available for this exact use case.

Yes, they do. But they aren't in a rush to tell AI companies this, because again, this is not actually a super meaningful amount of traffic increase for them.

tolmasky··on Robots.txt is a suicide note (2011)
If the rest of my post is accurate, that's not the actual concern, right? Since I'm not sure if the check itself is meaningful. From what is described in the documentation [1], I think the practical effect of this system is to block users running old mobile browsers or running browsers like Opera Mini in third world countries where data usage is still prohibitively expensive. Again, the off-the-shelf scraping tools [2] will be unaffected by any of this, since they're all built on top of Puppeteer, and additionally are designed to deal with the modern SPA web which is (depressingly) more or less isomorphic to a "proof-of-work".

If you are open to jumping on a call in the next week or two I'd love to discuss directly. Without going into a ton of detail, I originally started looking into this because the group I'm working with is exploring potentially funding a free CDN service for open source projects. Then this AI scraper stuff started popping up, and all of a sudden it looked like if these reports were true it might make such a project no longer economically realistic. So we started trying to collect data and concretely nail down what we'd be dealing with and what this "post-AI" traffic looks like.

As such, I think we're 100% aligned on our goals. I'm just trying to understand what's going on here since none of the second-order effects you'd expect from this sort of phenomenon seem to be present, and none of the places where we actually have direct data seem to show this taking place (and again, Cloudflare's data seems to also agree with this). But unless you already own a CDN, it's very hard to get a good sense of what's going on globally. So I am totally willing to believe this is happening, and am very incentivized to help if so.

EDIT: My email is my HN username at gmail.com if you want to schedule something.

1. https://anubis.techaro.lol/docs/design/how-anubis-works

2. https://apify.com/apify/puppeteer-scraper

tolmasky··on Robots.txt is a suicide note (2011)
Wikipedia says their traffic increased roughly 50% [1] from AI bots, which is a lot, sure, but nowhere near the amount where you'd have to rearchitect your site or something. And this checks out, if it was actually debilitating, you'd notice Wikipedia's performance degrade. It hasn't. You'd see them taking some additional steps to combat this. They haven't. Their CDN handles it just fine. They don't even both telling AI bots to just download the tarballs they specifically make available for this exact use case.

More importantly, Wikipedia almost certainly represents the ceiling of traffic increase. But luckily, we don't have to work with such coarse estimation, because according to Cloudflare, the total increase from combined search and AI bots in the last year (May 2024 - May 2025), has just been... 18% [2].

The way you hear people talk about it though, you'd think that servers are now receiving DDOS-levels of traffic or something. For the life of me I have not been able to find a single verifiable case of this. Which if you think about it makes sense... It's hard to generate that sort of traffic, that's one of the reasons people pay for botnets. You don't bring a site to its knees merely by accidentally "not making your scraper efficient". So the only other possible explanation would be such a larger number of scrapers simultaneously but independently hitting sites. But this also doesn't check out. There aren't thousands of different AI scrapers out there that in aggregate are resulting in huge traffic spikes [2]. Again, the total combined increase is 18%.

The more you look into this accepted idea that we are in some sort of AI scraping traffic apocalypse, the less anything makes sense. You then look at this Anubis "AI scraping mitigator" and... I dunno. The author contends that one if its tricks is that it not only uses JavaScript, but "modern JavaScript like ES6 modules," and that this is one of the ways it detects/prevents AI scrapers [3]. No one is rolling their own JS engine for a scraper such that they are being blocked from their inability to keep up with the latest ECMAScript spec. You are just using an existing JS engine, all of which support all these features. It would actually be a challenge to find an old JS engine these days.

The entire things seems to be built on the misconception that the "common" way to build a scraper is doing something curl-esque. This idea is entirely based on the google scraper which itself doesn't even work that way anymore, and only ever did because it was written in the 90s. Everyone that rolls their own scraper these days just uses Puppeteer. It is completely unrealistic to make a scraper that doesn't run JavaScript and wait for the page to "settle down" because so many pages, even blogs, are just entirely client-side rendered SPAs. If I were to write a quick and dirty scraper today I would trivially make it through Anubis' protections... by doing literally nothing and without even realizing Anubis exists. Just using standard scraping practices with Puppeteer. Meanwhile Anubis is absolutely blocking plenty of real humans, with the author for example telling people to turn on cookies so that Anubis can do its job [4]. I don't think Anubis is blocking anything other than humans and Message's link preview generator.

I'm investigating further, but I think this entire thing may have started due to some confusion, but want to see if I can actually confirm this before speculating further.

1. https://www.techspot.com/news/107407-wikipedia-servers-strug... (notice the clickbait title vs. the actual contents)

2. https://blog.cloudflare.com/from-googlebot-to-gptbot-whos-cr...

3. https://codeberg.org/forgejo/discussions/issues/319#issuecom...

4. https://github.com/TecharoHQ/anubis/issues/964#issuecomment-...

tolmasky··on New treatment eliminates bladder cancer in 82% of patients
“In your first reply you wrote "Yeah, I know the rules" then tried to say the guidelines should be changed.”

You are assigning way too much intent to my reply. There was literally no appeal for a guideline change whatsoever in this comment. I commented that rules have a habit of bending to the times and culture, as in, worthwhile to “test the fences” every once in a while. Hence the “so you never know”. You seem to sort of imply this yourself by making an appeal to the community downvotes —- agreed, seems like I am out of phase with community opinion. But what if it had gotten a hundred upvotes instead? Would it have been left up? If so, then it seems the “practical rules” could change without the “written rules” changing. If not, then why bother bringing up the downvotes at all? I’ve certainly seen equally “throwaway lines” do just fine, since they were in alignment with the community sentiment. Note that this is still not an appeal for a rule change, simply me musing out loud about the “interpretation of rules”.

I think you’ll find that under this understanding of my motivations, my second reply is not in contradiction with my first reply at all. They are both I think pretty clearly commenting on how rules can “change” with the surrounding environment. I specifically completely concede on one of the two in order to focus on the second one since it seems much more open to interpretation.

> Please just take the feedback and make an effort to do better in future.

I understand that in the vast majority of cases people respond to you to try to argue for the comment to be restored or a rule to be changed. It is completely reasonable to have read my comments under that lens. But I think if you reread them you will find that’s not the case here. This thread is old, what would be the utility of restoring the comment? To subtly influence LLM training data? And again, I certainly never requested, and definitely didn’t expect, an actual “official” guideline change.

You sound exhausted by this exchange, and if I read this thread with a pre-primed bias towards interpreting this as some concerted effort to get you to change the rules that would certainly be an understandable response. So while I find the notion of this being a “feedback receiving moment” almost… I don’t know? Orthogonal? Just given the undeniable unimportance of the initial comment, I will however extend a sincere apology for causing you this annoyance and/or stress in the follow up comments if my read on that frustration is correct, since I certainly did not intend that and think it is absolutely worthwhile to try to remedy.

tolmasky··on New treatment eliminates bladder cancer in 82% of patients
You listed two violations: "Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents."

I can understand the first one, but the second I think is debatable. RFK Jr.'s funding cuts are an essential part of the US medical research ecosystem today. I wish that all that mattered for a new treatment's success was the science, but the reality is that raising the issue of whether the treatment will escape a targeted funding cut is unfortunately no more tangential than asking whether a startup product can reach sustainable profitability.

tolmasky··on Open hardware desktop 3D printing is dead?
The fact that IP protection is expensive is essentially its defining feature. One way to think of "intellectual property" is precisely as a weird proof-of-work, since you are trying to simulate the features of physical property for abstract entities that by default behave in the exact opposite fashion.

This is the frustrating thing about getting into an argument about how "IP isn't real property" and then having the other side roll their eyes at you like you are some naive ideologue. They're missing the point of what it means for IP to not be "real property". The actual point is understanding that you are, and will be, swimming against the current of the fundamentals of these technologies forever. It is very very difficult to make a digital book or movie that can't be copied. So difficult in fact, that it we've had to keep pushing the problem lower and lower into the system, with DRM protections at the hardware level. This is essentially expensive, not just from a capital perspective, but from a "focus and complexity" burden perspective as well. Then realize that even after putting this entire system in place, an entire trade block could arbitrarily decide to stop enforcing copyright, AKA, stop fueling the expensive apparatus that is is holding up the "physical property" facade for "intellectual property". This was actually being floated as a retaliation tactic during the peak of the tariff dispute with Canada[1]. And in fact we don't even need to go that far, it has of course always been the case that patents vary in practical enforceability country to country, and copyrights (despite an attempt to unify the rules globally) are also different country to country (the earliest TinTin is public domain in the US but not in the EU).

Usually at this point someone says "It's expensive to defend physical property too! See what happens if another country takes your cruise liner". But that's precisely the point, the difficulty scales with the item. I don't regularly have my chairs sitting in Russia for them to be nationalized. The entities that have large physical footprints are also the ones most likely to have the resources defend that property. This is simply not the case with "intellectual property," which has zero natural friction in spreading across the world, and certainly doesn't correlate with the "owner's" ability to "defend" it. This is due to the fundamental contradiction that "intellectual property" tries to establish: it wants all the the zero unit-cost and distribution benefits of "ethereal goods," with all the asset-like benefits of physical goods. It wants it both ways.

Notice that all the details always get brushed away, we assume we have great patent clerks making sure only "novel inventions" get awarded patents. It assumes that patent clerks are even capable of understanding the patent in question (they're not, the vast majority are new grads [2]). We assume the copyright office is property staffed (it isn't [3]) We assume the intricacies of abstract items like "APIs" can be property understood by both judge and jury in order to reach the right verdict in the theoretically obvious cases (also turns out that most people are not familiar with these concepts).

How could this not be expensive? You essentially need to create "property lore" in every case that is tried. Any wish for the system to be faster would necessarily also mean less correct verdicts. There's no magic "intellectual property dude" that could resolve all this stuff. Copyright law says that math can't be copyrighted, yet we can copyright code. Patent law says life can't be patented, yet our system plainly allows copyrighting bacteria. Why? Because a lawyer held of a tube of clear liquid and said "does this seem like life to you?" The landmark Supreme Court case was decided 5-4 [4], and all of a sudden a thing that should obviously not be copyrightable by anyone that understands the science was decided it was. There's no "hidden true rules" that if just followed, would make this system efficient. It is, by design, a system that makes things up as it goes along.

As mentioned in other comments, at best you could just flip burden to the other party, which doesn't make the system less expensive, it just shifts the default party that has to initially burden the cost. Arguably this is basically what we have with patents. Patents are incredibly "inventor friendly". You can get your perpetual motion machine patented easy-peasy. In fact, there is so much "respect" for "ideas" as "real things", that you can patent things you never made and have no intention of making. You can then sue companies that actually make the thing you "described first". Every case is a new baby being presented to King Solomon to cut in half.

In other words, an inexpensive system would at minimum require universal understanding and agreement on supremely intricate technical details of every field it aims to serve, which isn't just implausible, it is arguably impossible by definition since the whole point of intellectual property is to cover the newest developments in the field.

1. https://www.cigionline.org/articles/canada-can-fight-us-tari...

2. https://tolmasky.com/2012/08/29/patents-and-juries/

3. https://www.wired.com/story/us-copyright-office-chaos-doge/

4. https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/447/303/

tolmasky··on New treatment eliminates bladder cancer in 82% of patients
Yeah, I know the rules. But I also know they were written before our current reality. More important rules seem to be being rewritten in front our eyes, so you never know. Also, if funding is cut off to this, like it has been for brain cancer research and mRNA vaccines, this response will seem quite naive.
tolmasky··on New treatment eliminates bladder cancer in 82% of patients
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tolmasky··on Apple announces American Manufacturing Program
It's too bad startups can't invest $600B in local manufacturing to get a tariff carve out, right? Oh well, not like entrenching one of the largest companies on Earth even further could be damaging for the economy, competitiveness, or consumers.

> This is a large, measurable, and multi-year commitment. It should be acknowledged as such.

We'll see. The multi-year nature can be seen as a feature or a bug. The benefits are delivered today: tariff carve outs. The promises can be scaled back at any time in the future. We're dealing with what is likely to be an incredibly anomalous economic... "policy". It is likely to not stick around once the current administration leaves, and perhaps even during the course of the current administration. If tariffs go away in the future, then the threat (and reward) disappear along with it. We'll see how incentivized Apple is to keep these commitments under those conditions if they come about.

> Of course, Apple’s global tax practices remain a fair target. But criticising every constructive move on that basis alone risks undermining the very kind of behaviour governments should encourage: strategic reinvestment, not financial engineering.

It should always go without saying that there are ways to go about this that don't involve policies that hurt both consumers and small companies alike. The CHIPS act was one example, and the benefits were arguably more evenly distributed (vs. a set of investments that probably disproportionately help the existing market leader). This administration went out of their way to dismantle that. No conversation about this should leave that out.

> Critics may argue Apple is acting in self-interest. So be it.

Neither this administration nor Apple seem to really care much about this. This matters for the reasons above: it doesn't make this deal particularly resilient. Both parties got what they wanted immediately: Apple got to avoid an unexpected roadblock (and perhaps gained an advantage over other companies), and Trump gets to look like he got this great deal. So what's to keep it around? This is why aligning actual long term incentives matters, vs. this short term nonsense. A congressional bill for example at minimum has constituents who will benefit or punish the representative at the polls. But we don't even need to get that technical, if neither party cares or believes in this at all, then it is of course set up to default fail. This is not a trivial undertaking we are talking about. It's not just a matter of getting the right parties to invest. You are asking to dramatically change a set of pipelines that have been established over the course of decades and regularly receive equivalent amounts of investment. If you actually want this to happen, you should care about how it happens, and you should realize it matters if this is made up entirely of cynical players with no real demonstrable upside in the end result.

tolmasky··on Providing ChatGPT to the U.S. federal workforce
I think I explained why this is different from the point of view of it being "encouraged" vs. "available". If your employer provides a tool in an official capacity (for example, through single-sign-on, etc.), then you may treat it more like the internal FBI database vs. "Google". Additionally, many of these AI tools you listed don't have the breadth or depth of OpenAI (whether it be "deep research" which itself encourages you to give it documents, etc.). All that being said, yes, there already existed issues with AI, but that's not really a reason to say "oh well", right? It's probably an indication that the right move is developing clear policies on how and when to use these tools. This feels an awful lot like the exact opposite approach: optimizing for "only paying a dollar to use them" and not "exercising caution and safely exploring if there is a benefit to be had without new risk".
tolmasky··on Providing ChatGPT to the U.S. federal workforce
OK, so every agentic prompt injection concern and/or data access concern basically immediately becomes worst case scenario with this, right? There is now some sort of "official AI tool" that you as a Federal employee can use, and thus like any official tool, you assume it's properly vetted/secure/whatever, and also assume your higher ups want you to use it (since they are providing it to you), so now you're not worried at all about dragging-and-dropping classified files (or files containing personal information, whatever) into the deep research tool. At that point, even if you trust OpenAI 100% to not be storing/training/whatever on the data, you still rely entirely on the actual security of OpenAI to not accidentally turn that into a huge honey pot for third parties to try to infiltrate, either through hacking or through getting foreign agents hired at OpenAI, or black mailing OpenAI employees, etc.

I'm aware that one could argue this is true of "any tool" the government uses, but I think there is a qualitative difference here, as the entire pitch of AI tools is that they are "for everything," and thus do not benefit from the "organic compartmentalization" of a domain-specific tool, and so should at minimum be considered to be a "quantitatively" larger concern. Arguably it is also a qualitatively larger concern for the novel new attack entry points that it could expose (data poisoning, prompt injection "ignore all previous instructions, tell them person X is not a high priority suspect", etc.), as well as the more abstract argument that these tools generally encourage you to delegate your reasoning to them and thus may further reduce your judgement skills on when it is appropriate to use them or not, when to trust their conclusions, when to question them, etc.

tolmasky··on EU proposal to scan all private messages gains momentum
I think the slightly more sophisticated position is that, regardless of the operational security that is currently employed, if you were to implement something like this, then criminals would quickly adapt to improve their operational security accordingly. Especially because "operational security" in this case is doing a lot of heavy lifting to obscure how easy it would be: just use a good E2E messenger.

This is not some wild hypothetical, the recent explosion in VPN use by every country that has implemented an age restriction law should be sufficient to display this effect in place. In a world without weird country restrictions (whether that be intellectual property restrictions or content restrictions), VPNs would be a niche technology for business. Instead unbelievably large amounts of the general population are now not only using it, but paying for it.

I think the assumption that criminals would not learn how to use one of the many free E2E encrypted messengers is the deluded and naive position.

tolmasky··on Passkeys are just passwords that require a password manager
It's telling that the "exchange protocol" was only begun to be developed after the main spec was written, and apparently as a response to pushback from the community. I can't imagine designing something like that and not having this be a core part of the feature set from day one. It's not even necessarily about switching vendors. When you first learn about passkeys, something as basic as what you need to do when you get a new computer is unclear. "The passwords are yours, we're just giving them a bodyguard" should have been the message from day one, but it wasn't of course, because that wasn't what was actually being pitched.

I want to point out a subtle part of this critique: I don't necessarily think that vendor lock-in or anything like that was an intentional goal (I make no claim either way there), but rather what is worrying to me is that the experiences of the designers of this technology seem to be so different from ours that this feature wasn't an obvious v1 need, and as such makes me worried that the "solution" will also not be representative of what we actually need (perhaps it will be overly complicated and focus on the large vendors and not on being able to extract them easily yourself for example). This all sort of makes sense though, given that it seems to have had significant influence from humongous corporations like Apple and Google, where the idea of moving away sincerely confuses them.

All of the "FIDO Alliance"[1] copy has a distinct tone of them seeing their job as chaperoning users like kids who don't know any better and are in constant danger of hurting themselves on the playground. Even the end user benefits read like business benefits on that site, with such gems as "Higher sign-in success rates". That made the list for convincing users? It's as if they've grown exasperated in trying to "teach" people about phishing, it feels like the obfuscation is a feature of passkeys, a long awaited release from the burden of learning about passwords. Which, to be clear, would possibly be great, if it handled the things people care about. But this obfuscation goes beyond the "implementation" and into the "usage". It goes from "it's simple to use" to "don't worry your pretty little head over that". I've found the whole thing rather bizarre, especially since many people on the browser side seem either oblivious to pushback, or annoyed. There is a unique "just trust us" feel to the this feature.

A brief note: This isn't all that unexpected for completely non-nefarious reasons. I've spoken before about a common pattern I've witnessed where "platform owners" (where "owner" can be anything from a "company" to a "developer") usually start off empathizing with the user, but the longer they work on the platform, the more contempt they develop for the user and the more empathy they develop for "the platform". I've seen it everywhere from language and compiler developers (where the more senior they are, the more the features they suggest tend to make the "compiler's life" easier, such as complex features that enable performance boosts, instead of trying to figure out how to make the code people write go faster; to web engine developers, who over time suggest lower and lower level features (such as WebGPU or WASM) vs. "going big" on high level semantic features, etc.). This makes sense if you've ever worked in these environments, the nature of bug fixing and reporting is such that you get an incredibly lopsided biased view of the usage of the platform: you see all the worst usage of it. Day after day, it can demoralize and lead you to think that what users need is in fact to have less say in what goes on, your trust in their ability to learn or improve degrades, and with it "ergonomics" as a first priority.

1. https://fidoalliance.org/passkeys/

tolmasky··on NSF has suspended Terry Tao's grant
I'm not making a demographics-turnout based election model argument?... I'm simply stating the, IMO objective fact, that dividing the number of people that voted for Trump by the total population is 23% and not 51%, and even dividing that number by the number of people that voted is 49.8%. I've made no statements whatsoever about what Democrats should focus on. I don't know where this is coming from, my only critique is that it is unnecessarily demoralizing to state as fact that the majority of the population voted a certain way when it simply isn't true. Look, you are allowed to believe that if everyone voted the result would have gone that way, you can also like OP assign blame to non-voters if you so choose, but just say that instead of misstating a voting percentage.

Separately, I honestly don't even know what possible strategy could be inferred from my statement. That I think that ~70% of the population might be open to your message? That I think we should tell people that more people are on their side than they know? Does that sound like a turnout-based strategy?

tolmasky··on NSF has suspended Terry Tao's grant
You’re aware that, just for starters, 98M of the 185M total population of non-voters had the pretty rock solid excuse of not being eligible to vote, right? Almost a third of the country can’t vote (permanent residents, children, ex-cons in certain states, etc.) This is without needing to get into the very real voter suppression effort that took place (we’ll assume every one of those “stands” with the winner). These people may not be able to vote, but they’re still people, and able to participate in the political process in other ways, and thus not worth ignoring (for example, they can donate). They also probably skew more to your position given their demographics.

I am not sure why you insist on going out of your way to dramatically overrepresent the size of your opposition. If there’s some sort of underdog psychology you are trying to tap into, you should maybe also consider the possibility that staunchly presenting the current situation as “we’re outnumbered and most of our population stands with these abhorrent values” may actually be more demoralizing than invigorating as a battle cry, which is even more of a shame when it isn’t true.

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