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tobias3

988 karma · joined January 18, 2011

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tobias3··on SpaceX S-1
Choose another index where it is not included?
tobias3··on Kidnapped by Deutsche Bahn
I'm pretty sure there should be english announcements. Maybe they were broken. You also get this information via the displays on the wagons and on the screens inside. There is a bus/train from Freising to the airport every 10 min that takes 15min, so you are not trapped there for hours. Google maps also has all the public transport connections available for navigation. That it does not support certain things like train splits or instant train changes is not DBs problem.

The preferred way to get to the airport is via S8 (not S1). Idk how one could push/guide people more to take this one. S8 does not split and it definitely has announcements in english. They also prioritize keeping S8 running above anything else.

I'd also recommend buying tickets via app, not via ticket machines.

tobias3··on MD RAID or DRBD can be broken from userspace when using O_DIRECT
On the contrary. Btrfs had a long standing issue where you could make the filesystem checksums not match with non-stable O_DIRECT writes (so even with a single disk).

This has only recently been fixed by disabling O_DIRECT for files with checksums (so the default): https://lore.kernel.org/linux-btrfs/54c7002136a047b7140c3647...

ZFS has O_DIRECT do nothing as well, as far as I know.

tobias3··on AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there
We cannot even guess what the timeline would be. This is why it is insane to invest in it and expect a positive return in usual investing horizons.
tobias3··on Beliefs that are true for regular software but false when applied to AI
And it imitates all the unimportant bits perfectly (like spelling, grammar, word choice) while failing at the hard to verify important bits (truth, consistency, novelty)
tobias3··on Tesla is at risk of losing subsidies in Korea over widespread battery failures
I'm afraid you are falling for a psychopath (see e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01LK1hxpwcY for analysis). They are sometimes good at lying.
tobias3··on After the AI boom: what might we be left with?
The autonomous drones fighting in the next war (let's hope not...).
tobias3··on How much revenue is needed to justify the current AI spend?
On one of the latest Odd lots episodes finally an analyst had an investment thesis that made sense to me:

They think they are building an AI god.

If you think of it in religious terms it suddenly makes sense. Expected rate of return? One scenario has has infinite expected return (some kind of pascals wager/mugging)!

Of course there will be no AGI. Just a planet we'll have to live on where those deluded idiots wasted our resources on some boondoggle. Maybe this kind of concentration of power is a bad thing? I think we are going to get to those kind of questions once the party is over.

tobias3··on Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley
Yeah, but they are also financing the gold miners.

Also, what to do with the shovels that are not sold if there are no buyers?

tobias3··on Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1T. and Doge Didn't Do Much
Yeah, the latest thing is the the 20 billion $ Argentina bailout (or Bessents hedge fund buddies exit liquidity).

20 billion ... gone.

Another 15 billion will go to soybean farmers to bail them out. And so on.

tobias3··on German government comes out against Chat Control
This went through the court system and it found that the "raid" was not appropriate and unlawful.

Mistakes happen and get corrected. Doesn't mean there is a systemic issue.

tobias3··on Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits
So it is regulatory arbitrage. I think many of the critics never contested that crypto is good for doing crime. The critics just also think that either those crimes should continue to be prevented via the financial system or the financial system should be deregulated for all without a crypto backdoor.

A Money Market Fund gives you interest if you are able to access it.

This is kind of a pattern:

1. There is some regulation that is inefficient ( e.g. taxi medallions, KYC, copyright protection ...)

2. New technology comes about which allows startups to claim that they have invented a new area that should be regulated differently

3. Turns out (2) is not true and new technology can easily be mapped to existing regulation but it would look bad for the regulator to take away the punchbowl

4. There is some down-turn (bubble pops) and the regulator takes away the punchbowl OR investors have accumulated so much money/power that they corrupt the government to have new rules for their businesses

tobias3··on The End of Tt-Rss.org
Looking at recent threads on the forums: No.

I do handle annoying feature requests on my open source project by just ignoring them.

tobias3··on OpenAI Is Just Another Boring, Desperate AI Startup
I thought it was starting when Ilya said that scaling has plateaued about a year ago. Now confirmed with GPT-5. Now they'll need to sell a pivot from AGI to productization of what they already have with a valuation that implies reaching AGI?
tobias3··on Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack
We already turned off the tap (look at the link above). It is just unimportant countries like Hungary and Slovakia that still import pipeline gas (and they're not making any friends...) . Would be great to pressure them more. Till this year Ukraine still imported nat gas from Russia btw.

LNG is a fungible commodity that is traded world-wide. Don't see much beyond symbolic value here in refusing it. Trying to enforce a price cap would be great there, but needs coordination.

tobias3··on OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss
Google has defaults as their huge moat. They have Chrome and Android under their control and pay Apple and Mozilla to be the default search engine.

Here in Europe this is mitigated by them having to show a browser/search engine selection screen, but in the US you seem to be more accepting of the monopoly power. Or it seems the Judge in Calfornia seems to think that OpenAI actually has a change of winning this. It doesn't in my estimation.

On the other side Google has a monopoly on Ads. When OpenAI somehow starts displaying ads, they'd have to build their own Ad network and then entice companies and brands to use it. Good luck with that.

tobias3··on I built ChatGPT with Minecraft redstone [video]
What I also find amazing is the server software used to run it ( https://github.com/MCHPR/MCHPRS ):

- Re-implements parts of Minecraft

- Runs 512x512 plots in different threads

- Compiles Redstone applying different kind of optimization passes https://github.com/MCHPR/MCHPRS/blob/master/docs/Redpiler.md

- It had Jit backends before, but seems they have been removed

tobias3··on The gaslit asset class
My argument was specific to the use case as speculative asset. Currencies usually have other uses.
tobias3··on The gaslit asset class
Bitcoin is a negative-sum game. You can only get out what others put in and miners continuously have to pay for electricity and chips to keep the game going.

It is also a dump speculative asset. I'd even claim Tesla stock is better as speculative asset, at least it may be a positive-sum game.

Caveat: I am one of those people OP mentioned.

tobias3··on How the AI bubble ate Y Combinator
LLMs are good at prototyping something that is similar to something that already exists and is open sourced.

It may be that there are such projects which can be monetized or need better marketing.

Innovative it is not, however.

tobias3··on Snapdragon X2 Elite ARM Laptop CPU
For me it is too slow to run Age of Empires 2: DE multiplayer. More than ten year old Laptops with Intel chips are faster there.
tobias3··on OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
Same thing with the 1.3 billion EUR investment of ASML into Mistral. ASML -> Mistral -> NVIDIA -> TSMC -> ASML -> ...
tobias3··on Ask HN: Is America Going to Become an Autocracy?
E.g. go to the next "No kings" protest.
tobias3··on They Thought They Were Free (1955)
You had to take him seriously but not literally.
tobias3··on They Thought They Were Free (1955)
Yes, and then they call this openly a Reichstag fire moment and people still don't get the parallels.

And back then there was a proper systems conflict. People like Krupp actually had to fear being disowned by communists.

tobias3··on They Thought They Were Free (1955)
As a German outside observer I can tell you there is only one side going down the facist path.

The "other side" isn't great either. Would be great to have a sane alternative, I guess.

tobias3··on When Knowing Someone at Meta Is the Only Way to Break Out of "Content Jail"
I use AWS SES. You pay 0.01 cent per e-mail.
tobias3··on Stepping Down as Libxml2 Maintainer
The main problem is that you need to have contributors sign a copyright assignment/CLA, otherwise their code is going to be AGPL only and you cannot license it commercially.

Or you don't have any contributors, which is the base case, I guess.

tobias3··on Fed helpless as US economy faces structural challenges, not monetary
This right here. If you don't think they will actually hit the 2% target it means inflation became unanchored.

It is mainly about credibility.

If they want 3% instead of 2%, they should hit the 2% target first, keep it there for a few years, then increase to 3%.

tobias3··on U.S. added 911k fewer jobs in year through March than reported earlier
Usually I'd be with you. It's a big ship and even presidents have limited power to steer. But he is really doing all he can to sink it, so while one cannot blame him entirely, one can blame him:

- Firing a lot of federal employees

- Creating an uncertain business environment where no planning is possible via tariffs

That's just what he is breaking short term. There will be no way to reverse the long term damage his policies do.

I'm not arguing about goals, just looking at the execution.

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