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tmule

187 karma · joined May 9, 2021

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tmule··on Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
I worked at Meta for roughly a decade, and have very little faith left in its leadership. I’m waiting for someone to play the child in The Emperor’s New Clothes and finally say the obvious out loud … to Emperor Zuck himself.
tmule··on Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)
Suffered for a decade till I discovered this. I’d reached a point where I was actively skeptical about anything working, till this worked out. Good luck!
tmule··on Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)
Observational studies can have synthetic controls. The term, as such, doesn’t mean precisely what you think it means.
tmule··on Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)
Those invoking Dunning-Kruger are, with high probability, an instance of just that :) (also, see the comment below that touches upon the many gaps in the original paper, which is at this point just garbage invoked by midwits). Finally, there’s a thing called heterogeneous treatment effects, which really is hard to detect at medical research scale … and placebo effects, if they help with the underlying issue without breaking the bank, and still helpful.
tmule··on Sleep regularity is a stronger predictor of mortality risk than sleep duration (2023)
Magnesium Glycinate has been a game changer. My legs used to be tense to the point of cramping at night, and they’re now relaxed, enabling better sleep. I also use L-theanine as an additional supplement for a long duration deep sleep, and think it helps.
tmule··on Zuckerberg says AI agent development going slower than expected
The same folks who informed him about how awesome Behemoth was?
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
Reading comprehension isn’t your strong suit; personally have a preference for pigs since they’re benign and good-natured creatures.
tmule··on Mark Zuckerberg directed Meta to create a prediction markets app
Huh? I was addressing a specific claim - not even sure what you’re trying to refute.
tmule··on Mark Zuckerberg directed Meta to create a prediction markets app
I don’t know what definition of intelligence you’re using, but scoring extremely well on math tests qualifying him for that study is fully aligned with the psychometric POV.
tmule··on Mark Zuckerberg directed Meta to create a prediction markets app
Hope so (ex-Meta, and hold a couple of million dollars of their stock, but quite dislike the company).
tmule··on Mark Zuckerberg directed Meta to create a prediction markets app
Your impression about his intelligence is way off. Mark was part of the study for mathematically precocious youth, which has a math cutoff at the 1/10K rarity. He also has ambition at the same level. What’s probably missing, of late, is good taste and judgment.
tmule··on Job application asked for my SAT scores
“ getting a 2100/1500+ on the SAT” Typo? 2100/2400 << 1500/1600 in terms of rarity.
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
Common term for about 75% of democrats under 50, who must be Jew-haters, of course. Sorry, ethnonationalism just isn’t a popular ideology, and the word is, in practice, just a shorthand for an instance of that. You’ve lapped up hasbarist propaganda to such an extent that it’s started to be reality.
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
Hypocrisy is an individual quality, not a collective quality, Zio!
tmule··on John Jumper to join Anthropic
What brute force? Any citations?
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
Illogical collectivist blather suggesting that therefore, Muslims should be treated as a collective, and deprived of rights in Israel? Also, what’s with the “happily”?
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
Don’t wrestle with pigs or argue with Zionists about Israel (though the former will at least avoid accusing you of things you’re not).
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
Nope, but it’s not particularly unknown either. It shouldn’t be a surprise; he had remarkable research contributions before and after (separately, he was also an IMO gold medalist).
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
Thanks - wanted to point to this, and indeed should have worded my claim more precisely. And yes, am aware of prior work on attention. (I need to look it up, but I recall Noam saying publicly that he wouldn’t have agreed to random ordering of contributions if he knew this was going to be this big).
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
Love the choice of words by Noam- exceptional team for OpenAI, amazing team for GDM.
tmule··on Noam Shazeer Joins OpenAI
This understates his criticality. The author list was randomized, but the critical idea was truly his. Wonder what this says about GDM …
tmule··on CS336: Language Modeling from Scratch
Are video lectures available online?
tmule··on Panipat: The rise of the Mughals
Estimates for the Maurya and Gupta periods are significantly more speculative than Mughal estimates. We have reasonably good tax and mint records for the Mughals, whereas Maurya/Gupta figures rely heavily on back-calculating from population density. Is this what kids in India are being taught these days?
tmule··on Tesla tells HW3 owner to 'be patient' after 7 years of waiting for FSD
That’s a terribly low bar for evidence - it’s deciding to pick whatever self-reported data confirms your priors. Far more than 3 individuals believed that Ivermectin cured them of COVID - I, however, chose to not believe them and get vaccinated instead. FWIW, my experience with FSD on HW4 is that I don’t need to intervene roughly for a 100ish miles on a clear day on a freeway without construction or accidents. That’s good enough for me to subscribe during roadtrips, but Musk and his legion of supporters is overselling capabilities - as usual.
tmule··on Dario Amodei calls OpenAI’s messaging around military deal ‘straight up lies’
Oppenheimer? Really? Quoting a review of an Oppenheimer biography:

“Oppenheimer was clearly an enormously charming man, but also a manipulative man and one who made enemies he need not have made. The really horrible things Oppenheimer did as a young man – placing a poisoned apple on the desk of his advisor at Cambridge, attempting to strangle his best friend – and yes, he really did those things – Monk passes off as the result of temporary insanity, a profound but passing psychological disturbance. (There’s no real attempt by Monk to explain Oppenheimer’s attempt to get Linus Pauling’s wife Ava to run off to Mexico with him, which ended the possibility of collaboration with one of the greatest scientists of the twentieth, or any, century.) Certainly the youthful Oppenheimer did go through a period of serious mental illness; but the desire to get his own way, and feelings of enormous frustration with people who prevented him from getting his own way, seem to have been part of his character throughout his life.”

Seems more like Sam Altman, who is known to get his way, than Dario.

tmule··on Anthropic's original take home assignment open sourced
Your comments history suggests you’re rather bitter about “nerds” who are likely a few standard deviations smarter than you (Anthropic OG team, Jeff Dean, proof nerds, Linus, …)
tmule··on Warren Buffett steps down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO after six decades
It is highly unusual for someone to stay put after their net worth increases tenfold. Normally, you would expect an individual to seek out more elite social circles and embrace a significantly more opulent lifestyle. Not having that isn’t a sign of laziness (one can be certain that someone like Warren Buffett lives exactly as he chooses) but rather a reflection of the rare ability to decide that what he has is already enough.
tmule··on Major AI conference flooded with peer reviews written by AI
My objective function isn’t to maximize the originality of presentation - it’s to preserve the originality of thought and maximize interpretability. Prompting well can solve for that.
tmule··on Major AI conference flooded with peer reviews written by AI
Why? I often feed an entire document I hastily wrote into an AI and prompt it to restructure and rewrite it. I think that’s a common pattern.
tmule··on Kimi K2 Thinking, a SOTA open-source trillion-parameter reasoning model
China’s breakneck development is difficult for many in the US to grasp (root causes - baselining on sluggish domestic growth, and possessing a condescending view of China). This article offers a far more accurate picture than of how China is doing right now: https://archive.is/wZes6
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