throwu2728828

Seems inevitable once multi-modal reasoning 10x's everything. You don't even need robotics, just attach it to a headset Manna-style. All skilled blue collar work instantly deskilled. You see why I feel like I'm in a bind?

Why? It feels like the spade of advancements post-o1 are shattering all remaining roadblocks to AGI.

Thats the point.

EVERYTHING is upturned. "All other things solved" includes robotics. It's a 10x everywhere.

The scenario that is worrying is having to deal with the jagged frontier of intelligence prolonging the hurt. i.e

202X: SWE is solved

202X + Y; Y<3: All other fields solved.

In this case, I can't retrain before the second threshold but also can't idle. I just have to suffer. I'm prepared to, but it's hard to escape fleshy despair.

I really want this to be true, but honestly it's really hard. What makes you think this won't be eaten too within the next year based on the current s-curve-if-not-exponential we are on?

I'm a student, so all pivots have a minimum delta of 2 years, which is something like a 100x on current capabilities on the seemingly steep s-curve we are on. That drives my "gloom" (in practice I've placed my hope in something eternal rather than a fickle thing like this)

Re-skill to what? Everything is going to be upturned and/or solved by the time I could even do a pivot. There's no point at all now, I can only hold onto Christ.