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thinkloop

2,120 karma · joined June 5, 2012

Software, Engineer, Finance
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thinkloop··on US indictments of piracy group members throw top-tier piracy world into chaos
> Only the original copy must be paid for.

We are only paying for the original copy, but distributing that payment over many people and over time so it doesn't hurt as much - which single person is going to pay $10K or $1M or $50M for a song or movie?

thinkloop··on Africa declared free of wild polio
100%, just criticizing parent about how you and I not donating 90% of our wealth is different
thinkloop··on New facts about the leadup to the Beirut explosion
Summary:

- Grechushkin (Russian) was transporting ammonium nitrate from Georgia to Mozambique

- Grechushkin Ordered a last minute stop in Beirut to pick up additional cargo in the form of trucks, but the plan was abandoned when the first loaded truck almost broke the deck

- Lebanese officials then detained the ship for safety reasons

- Grechushkin declared bankruptcy and disappeared and the ship was impounded

- The ammonium nitrate was moved to a warehouse at the port and the ship eventually sank behind a breakwater, where its wreckage remains

- 4 years of complicated secrecy, corruption, shell companies, and “flags of convenience” involving Cypriot shipping magnate Manoli, the Portuguese illicit arms trafficking Vieira family, the Mozambique ruling elite, and Ukranian middle-man company Savaro, stymied solutions

- Lebanon then tried to offload the material to several organization including the Lebanese army and a local explosives manufacturer but they refused

- Lebanon then tried to return the cargo to Georgia but did not for unknown reasons

- On July 20, 2020, two weeks prior to the explosion, Lebanese security services warned the president that there were serious flaws with the storage of the ammonium nitrate

Then disaster.

thinkloop··on New facts about the leadup to the Beirut explosion
I wonder why the crew had to remain onboard for 10 months. Were they being held for the debts? Could they not afford to fly out? They didn't have to stay in Lebanon if it was a question of visas or what-have-you.
thinkloop··on Africa declared free of wild polio
Please, 90% of a 100 billion (that is currently growing faster than he can spend it) is not a fair comparison. Money is worthless once you've bought everything you want.
thinkloop··on Please read the paper before you comment
It might have to do with there being real identities linked to them now from Google+, which many say was the main purpose of the project; not to mention the improved recommendation engine and upvotes, etc.
thinkloop··on What Is the Small Web?
It has "users" and they "rent" space on their servers and you don't own your data and it is censored and your activity can be mined - I think these are the main factors the article is interested in.
thinkloop··on What Is the Small Web?
Would a "small web" require giving up search, recommendation engines, upvotes, etc. Doesn't something like hn necessarily require centralization?
thinkloop··on Code for The Economist's election model for 2020
> 95% is “Obama vs a dog”

That's what it was, don't forget how impossible it seemed at the time, it was a giant upset and shock.

> You think if Hillary went up against Trump, America would choose her 19 times out of 20?

If you are using "Hillary" and "Trump" figuratively about future elections with similarly matched candidates, then yes, see above.

thinkloop··on Code for The Economist's election model for 2020
> Giving something like a 95-98% chance to Hillary was arguably a fundamental failure

Why was it a fundamental failure? A 5% chance is one in twenty, it happens.

thinkloop··on Activists find camera inside box on power pole near union organizer’s home
What was suspicious about the box that made them look?
thinkloop··on Can't you just right click?
> PWAs are terrible

Why again? In the world of silos and proprietary platforms it's an absolute godsend that PWAs even exist.

thinkloop··on Can't you just right click?
> or whatever it is that Apple does with that money

What they primarily "do" is have an identity to sue or pursue in case of issues. That keeps everyone in line.

thinkloop··on The dual PhD problem of today’s startups
It was always in the cards. At one time a high-school degree was advanced, then mandatory, then college was minimum, now masters, soon phd's then multiple phd's. The issue is physics, the universe is too complex, see the three-body problem [0] (if the entire universe consisted of just 3 particles, that would already be too much for us to calculate). Complexity explodes exponentially. We reach computation barriers immediately. Which explains why stuff like true self-driving doesn't even come close to meeting promises and similar.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-body_problem

thinkloop··on Titan in Depth: Security in Plaintext
Insightful reply! thanks.

Open sourcing a project, in my opinion, is far from spearheading a world of privacy and security.

thinkloop··on Titan in Depth: Security in Plaintext
Any idea where google manufactures the chips? Do they do it themselves in their own fabs?

It's unfortunate that the company best poised to provide the world complete end-to-end privacy and security, is also the one least likely to democratize it.

thinkloop··on Shadow traffic: site visits that are not captured by typical analytics providers
Does hosting client-side tracking on your own domain circumvent all the problems? How come that hasn't become the standard and killed 3rd-party trackers? If it's a question of having to manage an analytics platform, can't that still be deferred to a 3rd-party but through your own subdomain?
thinkloop··on Welders set off Beirut blast while securing explosives
Probably because Syrians are considered cheap low quality labor (due to their desperation from having a decade long civil war), so it's kind'of like the US picking up laborers from Home Depot to figure out how to clean the Nukes.
thinkloop··on Mozilla lays off 250 employees while it refocuses on commercial products
I was surprised and saddened when Mozilla gave up their mobile Firefox OS. They should have been "The Web Company". Google and Apple have competing interests with their proprietary native apps. They would much prefer the entire web shift to apps. Mozilla could have been the open mobile app platform. Maybe one of the purposes of Chrome OS is to ensure someone like Mozilla doesn't do it.
thinkloop··on Wiki Bankruptcy
> The right solution is: Dont share documentation in 1-1, always write it on the wiki

You are restating the problem, the question is how

thinkloop··on Fed announces details of new interbank service to support instant payments
E-transfer seems like what the American solution would have been - private banks integrating between themselves - whereas this fed solution seems like what Canada would have typically come up with. In fairness though, Canadian banks are so few and heavily regulated they can almost be considered government.
thinkloop··on Twitter x TikTok = Twiktwok
What did fate do?
thinkloop··on The frustration of trying to invest in my hometown
Repairs are estimate'able and often increase the value of a building by allowing for the increase of rent making the current leases a floor of value. The roi is relatively straightforward. Buildings are some of the simplest assets.
thinkloop··on The frustration of trying to invest in my hometown
Check their leases, apply a vacancy rate of 5%-15% depending on history or estimation.
thinkloop··on The frustration of trying to invest in my hometown
If a building has tenants it's straightforward to value it, no need for comps or sqft calculations.
thinkloop··on Autodesk criticised by architects
You're right:

"In 2002, Yahoo's CEO at the time, Terry Semel, engaged in negotiations to acquire Google, which lasted several months.

The outcome of the negotiation was Semel balking at Google's price tag of $5 billion."

thinkloop··on Autodesk criticised by architects
> Yahoo made offers to buy Google

I think you have that backwards, Google kept asking Yahoo to buy them [1]

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/remember-yahoo-turned-down-1-...

thinkloop··on Microsoft is reportedly in talks to buy TikTok's US operations
Why do countries, including China, mandate companies use their servers in various cases?
thinkloop··on Trump tells reporters aboard Air Force One he is banning TikTok
> Trump’s comments come as it was reported Friday that Microsoft has held talks to buy the TikTok video-sharing mobile app from Chinese owner ByteDance.

It's to make sure MSFT gets it and at a good price. Trump is very aware of the power of signaling whether it pans out or not.

thinkloop··on Trump says he will ban TikTok through executive action
> Trump’s comments come as it was reported Friday that Microsoft has held talks to buy the TikTok video-sharing mobile app from Chinese owner ByteDance.

He's ensuring msft can get them at a good price. Trump is very aware of the power of signaling whether it pans out or not.

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