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thingswecantsay

3 karma · joined July 26, 2026

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thingswecantsay··on Pensions Buy Fewer Babies. Cutting Them Costs Votes
I would critique this response. You're citing specific examples; I hesitate to call them 'anecdotes', they're clearly real, but I don't think they are a strong rebuttal vs the statistics of population-wide case-studies in the article.

My bias here is that I tend to agree with the core thesis from the article: "without a state pension to lean on, children become the retirement plan" but with the even more unfortunate asterisk that even sufficient personal wealth is enough to discourage children, as seen by the correlations with birthrates in wealthier country. The "thing we can't say" here is that, bluntly, many people simply don't want kids vs. leisure.

Part of my reason for suspecting this is watching the struggles of various wealthy countries over the last 20 years to improve their birthrates with policies to make having children easier and giving incremental perks to those who do. My hypothesis for why none of these had a tremendous effect is that, simply, the magnitude of cost/benefit for a child is orders past the benefits currently being given.

Consider: For much of human history, your child was your retirement plan, a farmhand, a babysitter/daycare, and potentially a tool to align disparate families in marriage. This is not on the order of tens of thousands of dollars to have these perks in the modern world, they would cost hundreds of thousands into millions.

I totally believe there will be some who form collectives and opt-out, I would likely be one of them, but I have observed our world is not well set up for this sort of lifestyle, and I find most people are normative/not likely to do things off the beaten path.

This is a hard argument to make, I typically lean far more collectivist, and don't like the conclusions this leads me to in terms of what incentives will move the needle vs. not, but I'm struggling to see other paths that sufficiently impact the incentive structure.

thingswecantsay··on Trump administration bans new Chinese humanoid robots
This is absolutely the case. Look at the price/performance on chinese phones or cars vs. those available in the US.

Especially given some of the explicit claims in our declaration of independence regarding trade restriction, it boggles my mind that people aren't more pissed off about this, as beyond the lack of any personal access to better products, the outcomes of such a system in the long term have long been proven out. Pulling a quote from [0], as I suspect we all know how well the USSR's economic policy served it: 'The stated tasks of the monopoly of foreign trade are: to ward off capitalist eco- nomic penetration, to provide "maximum assistance" to domestic capital formation'

It's a handout to uncompetitive corps in the US, as well as a guarantee that they can continue to be uncompetitive, and any claims that it protects US jobs are laughable given how much of that industrial base has been shipped overseas. It effectively only serves to force the US population to be a captive audience to the monopsonists, at the cost of rendering the entire country less productive and less free.

More impactful than robots, as well, concurrently the administration has also banned all foreign solar inverters, hamstringing solar deployment [1]

[0] https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article... [1] https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/07/28/fcc-bans-foreign-prod...

thingswecantsay··on What to Know About Americans Leaving the U.S. in Record Numbers
The sad part, to further reinforce your rebuttal to the parent, is that the high costs weren't even enough to push me out for many years, I am fortunate to be a high enough earner that I was on the beneficial side of the unfortunate "good healthcare if you're rich" quote.

The dramatic decay, however, of third places, trust, institutional effectiveness, political discourse, capture, and polarization, social structures and community, just to name a few, has been striking. The trend was moving slowly in worrying ways well prior to covid, but after 2020 things took a step-function in directions that I'm not sure are easily recovered from; Ibn Al Khaldun has some things to say about transitions from trust-based to non-trust-based societies and the role education, or lack thereof, plays in that.

I think you summarize the current zeitgeist well in your core point: "economic factory farm with good PR" although as of late the PR has been somewhat lacking as well. While it's not the first time in America's history it's operated in a modality like this, I am definitely fearful that we got Very Lucky with the new deal era and marshal plan era boom, and there is no guarantee we will get lucky a second time. I also want to be clear so this is not misconstrued as catastrophizing: I'm not one to predict the collapse of any empire; they tend to rot instead. It's more just a question of in what sort of environment someone wants to live.

As such, our household set about acquiring dual residency a year or so back. It's certainly not a future I ever wanted, I continue to be extremely active in our local community and political spheres, but it seems imprudent to not have a plan at this point.

thingswecantsay··on Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory
I feel like you're not reading my whole comment vs. picking pieces, or are conflating my responses.

I explicitly said I was responding to both parents, and enumerated my response to each. (To be evenhanded, I could also have been unclear that my responses were distinct)

My response to the post you quoted was '2. The problem, ithkuil, is if the population does not see any other way to effectively fix things. (System capture, pareto distributions, disenfranchisement, etc.)'

The comment you are focusing on, regarding prosecution, was in response to Dragonwriter's earlier post regarding feasibility of prosecution after collapse.

Your final statement implies that you took my statement directed entirely at the US system vs. at a generalized statement (Warning?) on when people see revolution as a legitimate option.

I chewed over and decided to not touch too much more on the US aspect because I think it distracts from the original point I was trying to make, but I will say statements such as: 'The current system works better than any previous system for redress' are apt to my initial warning, as the US is clearly in a period of local retreat, (both as I think you touch on elsewhere in your comment, and not for the first time in history, to be clear) especially if the redress you seek is against political or white-collar crimes, and addressing that requires urgency, awareness, and action, including Voting, as you say, that I worry I don't see with the proactivity that is needed.

thingswecantsay··on Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory
That response disregards the thrust of my point, as well as the parallel to the famous quote "war is the continuation of politics by other means."

If a population does not believe they have more productive options, that is what will be left. This is often compounded when the existing powers have an easy time with murder BEFORE collapse, such that any moral prohibition would be hypocritical and self-defeating.

Let me be clear as well: I do not think Nicholas's murder "fixed" russia. I was precise in my wording, it was a form of prosecution previously unavailable to them. My point being that if things get bad enough, people care less about a long-term fix, and more about some semblance of recompense, and in some cases it may truly be the only option available to them to realize any concrete impact.

thingswecantsay··on Third Drone Shot Down in Three Days in Romanian Territory
To respond to both you and the parent at once.

1. While dragonwriter's point is not entirely wrong, I also wouldn't say I agree either. Czar Nicholas was "prosecuted" quite rapidly after the russian revolution.

2. The problem, ithkuil, is if the population does not see any other way to effectively fix things. (System capture, pareto distributions, disenfranchisement, etc.)

As an aside, I created a new account for this vs. my normal because I've wanted to speak more openly than I can on a work-associated profile for a while now, I will be keeping this account lest anyone thinks it's astroturfing.